Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(543)
- Faculty Publications (137)
- March 2015
- Article
Vulnerable Banks
By: Robin Greenwood, Augustin Landier and David Thesmar
We present a model in which fire sales propagate shocks across bank balance sheets. When a bank experiences a negative shock to its equity, a natural way to return to target leverage is to sell assets. If potential buyers are limited, then asset sales depress prices,... View Details
- Article
Waves in Ship Prices and Investment
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low... View Details
- January 2015
- Article
X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which... View Details
- 2014
- Article
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the... View Details
- 2014
- Article
Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Dimitri Vayanos
We examine empirically how the maturity structure of government debt affects bond yields and excess returns. Our analysis is based on a theoretical model of preferred habitat in which clienteles with strong preferences for specific maturities trade with arbitrageurs.... View Details
- March 2014
- Article
Manage Your Work, Manage Your Life
By: Boris Groysberg and Robin Abrahams
Work/life balance is at best an elusive ideal and at worst a complete myth, today's senior executives will tell you. But by making deliberate choices about which opportunities they'll pursue and which they'll decline, rather than simply reacting to emergencies, leaders... View Details
- September 2013
- Article
Women Rising: The Unseen Barriers
By: Herminia Ibarra, Robin Ely and Deborah Kolb
Even when CEOs make gender diversity a priority—by setting aspirational goals for the proportion of women in leadership roles, insisting on diverse slates of candidates for senior positions, and developing mentoring and training programs—they are often frustrated by a... View Details
- June 2013
- Article
Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
- Spring 2013
- Article
The Growth of Finance
By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein
The U.S. financial services industry grew from 4.9% of GDP in 1980 to 7.9% of GDP in 2007. A sizeable portion of the growth can be explained by rising asset management fees, which in turn were driven by increases in the valuation of tradable assets, particularly... View Details
- March 2013
- Book Review
Book Review of 'From Optimal Tax Theory to Tax Policy' by Robin Boadway
- Article
Agency Costs, Mispricing, and Ownership Structure
By: Sergey Chernenko, C. Fritz Foley and Robin Greenwood
Standard theories of corporate ownership assume that because markets are efficient, insiders ultimately bear all agency costs that they create and therefore have a strong incentive to minimize conflicts of interest with outside investors. We argue that if equity is... View Details
- September 2012 (Revised September 2015)
- Case
Doing Business in Turkey
By: Felix Oberholzer-Gee, Robin J. Ely, Daniela Beyersdorfer, Emilie Billaud and Cigdem Çelik
In a rather flat international business environment characterized by shrinking markets and economic turmoil, Turkey promoted itself as one of the safe havens for investments. Led by the strong domestic demand of a young population, the country had tripled its GDP... View Details
- April 2012
- Article
Share Issuance and Factor Timing
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks' returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details
- March 2012 (Revised October 2012)
- Case
Hayman Capital Management
By: Robin Greenwood, Julie Messina and Jared Dourdeville
In late December 2011, Hayman Capital founder and portfolio manager Kyle Bass was reviewing Japanese government budget projections for 2012. The projections appeared contrary to Hayman Capital's views on Japan, where the fund had built a bearish position. Japan had the... View Details
- March 2012
- Article
How to Make Finance Work
By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein
Once a sleepy old boys' club, the U.S. financial sector is now a dynamic and growing business that attracts the best and the brightest. It is tempting to declare the industry a roaring success. But its purpose is to serve the needs of U.S. households and firms, and by... View Details
- December 2011
- Article
Stock Price Fragility
By: Robin Greenwood and David Thesmar
We investigate the relationship between ownership structure of financial assets and non-fundamental risk. We define an asset to be fragile if it is susceptible to non-fundamental trading shocks. An asset can be fragile because of concentrated ownership or because its... View Details
- September 2011
- Article
Taking Gender into Account: Theory and Design for Women's Leadership Development Programs
By: Robin J. Ely, Herminia Ibarra and Deborah Kolb
We conceptualize leadership development as identity work and show how subtle forms of gender bias in the culture and in organizations interfere with the identity work of women leaders. Based on this insight, we revisit traditional approaches to standard leadership... View Details
- April 2011 (Revised April 2011)
- Module Note
Investor Demand
By: Robin Greenwood
This conceptual note describes a series of cases on the investor demand approach to investment strategy and management. The cases demonstrate how and why securities market dislocations are driven by non-fundamental demand. I use the cases to progressively build a... View Details
Keywords: Investment
- March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
- Case
Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?
By: Robin Greenwood and Benjamin Steiner
Case explores the pricing of gold in 2011. Is the pricing justified or are we in a speculative bubble? What data are useful in determining a view on this question? View Details
Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Money; Asset Management; Investment; Price Bubble; Policy; Risk Management