Publications

August 2015
Article

A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

We study optimal government debt maturity in a model where investors derive monetary services from holding riskless short-term securities. In a setting where the government is the only issuer of such riskless paper, it trades off the monetary premium associated with... View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Debt Securities

2024
Article

Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos

We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Interest Rates; Bonds; Financial Markets

2016
Article

The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

We argue that the Federal Reserve should use its balance sheet to help reduce a key threat to financial stability: the tendency for private-sector financial intermediaries to engage in excessive amounts of maturity transformation—i.e., to finance risky assets using... View Details

Keywords: Central Banking; Policy; Risk Management; Public Administration Industry; United States

Web

Finance - Faculty & Research

Mortgage Convexity By: Samuel G. Hanson Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the... View Details

Article

Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Price; Investment; Shipping Industry

Web

Finance Awards & Honors - Faculty & Research

Prize for Distinguished Paper in Corporate Finance for “A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity” with Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein ( Journal of... View Details

2012
Working Paper

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks

June 2013
Article

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Quality; Bonds; Forecasting and Prediction; Credit

23 Jun 2023
News

Highlights from the Spring 2023 Alumni Board Meeting

Greenwood, George Gund Professor of Finance and Banking, James F. Rothenberg Faculty Fellow, and Senior Associate Dean for Faculty Development and Research; and Jeff Bussgang, Senior Lecturer; and Samuel... View Details

November 2023
Article

A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam

We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the... View Details

Keywords: Term Premium; Exchange Rate; Currency Exchange Rate; Bonds

August 2014
Article

Mortgage Convexity

By: Samuel G. Hanson

Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS... View Details

Keywords: Mortgages; Interest Rates; Volatility

2014
Working Paper

The Rise and Fall of Demand for Securitizations

By: Sergey Chernenko, Samuel G. Hanson and Adi Sunderam

Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and private-label mortgage-backed securities (MBS) backed by nonprime loans played a central role in the recent financial crisis. Little is known, however, about the underlying forces that drove investor demand for these... View Details

Keywords: Debt Securities; Financial Markets; Financial Crisis

2017
Working Paper

The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

By: Brian S. Chen, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein

Small business lending by the four largest banks fell sharply relative to others in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the dynamic adjustment process following this credit supply shock. In counties where the largest banks had a high market share, the... View Details

Keywords: Small Business; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; System Shocks; Credit; Labor; United States

05 Mar 2013
First Look

First Look: March 5

emerging Asian markets. Paper: http://www.asiabusinessinsights.com/articles.html#sub_articles_E-commerce_in_Asia Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns Authors:Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

23 Mar 2023
News

SVB Crash Analysis

banking system. In a webinar earlier this week, HBS faculty members Robin Greenwood, Jeffrey Bussgang, and Samuel Hanson addressed the causes of... View Details

June 2013
Article

Are There Too Many Safe Securities? Securitization and the Incentives for Information Production

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Adi Sunderam

We present a model that helps explain several past collapses of securitization markets. Originators issue too many informationally insensitive securities in good times, blunting investor incentives to become informed. The resulting endogenous scarcity of informed... View Details

Keywords: Information; Debt Securities; Financial Crisis

October 2018 (Revised January 2019)
Case

The Financial Crisis: Timothy Geithner and the Stress Tests

By: Samuel G. Hanson, Robin Greenwood, David Scharfstein and Adi Sunderam

In February and March 2009, the U.S. economy was in the midst of a terrifying financial and economic crisis. Between the beginning of 2008 and early 2009, four of the 25 largest U.S. financial institutions had failed, and nine of these 25 institutions had taken... View Details

Keywords: Bailout; Regulation; Stress Test; Financial Crisis; History; Economy; Policy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Decision Making; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Real Estate Industry; United States

Educators

Purchase

2014
Article

The Growth and Limits of Arbitrage: Evidence from Short Interest

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Adi Sunderam

We develop a novel methodology to infer the amount of capital allocated to quantitative equity arbitrage strategies. Using this methodology, which exploits time-variation in the cross section of short interest, we document that the amount of capital devoted to value... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Financial Instruments; Capital Markets; Investment