Publications

Educators

Purchase

November 2012 (Revised January 2013)
Case

Companion Diagnostics: Uncertainties for Approval and Reimbursement

By: Richard G. Hamermesh, Norman C. Selby and Phillip Andrews

The FDA approvals of novel therapeutics were seen as signs in the personalized medicine community of real progress in the growth of personalized medicine. The FDA's approval of such drugs, along with companion diagnostics, suggested a shift in thinking and regulatory... View Details

Keywords: Models Of Reimbursement; Personalized Medicine; Regulation; Healthcare Reform; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry; United States

Educators

Purchase

May–June 2018
Article

Data Uncertainty in Markov Chains: Application to Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Medical Innovations

By: Joel Goh, Mohsen Bayati, Stefanos A. Zenios, Sundeep Singh and David Moore

Cost-effectiveness studies of medical innovations often suffer from data inadequacy. When Markov chains are used as a modeling framework for such studies, this data inadequacy can manifest itself as imprecision in the elements of the transition matrix. In this paper,... View Details

Keywords: Markov Chains; Cost Effectiveness; Medical Innovations; Colorectal Cancer; Health Care and Treatment; Cost vs Benefits; Innovation and Invention; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry

Research Summary

Real Options and Financial Decisions Under Uncertainty

Marc L. Bertoneche is developing material relevant to the business world in this field. He is particularly interested in applying the Real Option approach to Brand Valuation. View Details

02 Apr 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty

Keywords: by J. Peter Scoblic

1982
Chapter

On the Microeconomic Theory of Investment under Uncertainty

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Microeconomics; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management

2020
Working Paper

Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty

By: J. Peter Scoblic

This paper proposes to treat strategic foresight as a dynamic capability, providing a new theoretical lens on managerial judgment. Formulating strategy under uncertainty is a central challenge facing the modern firm. Analogy is thought to help managers make sense of... View Details

Keywords: Foresight; Dynamic Capabilities; Managerial Judgment; Risk and Uncertainty; Management; Strategy

September 2021
Supplement

The Boston Beer Company (B): Growth and Uncertainty

By: Christina R. Wing and John Masko

The first three years of CEO Dave Burwick’s tenure were tumultuous for the Boston Beer Company. The company’s hard seltzer products continued to grow unexpectedly quickly, eclipsing the company’s legacy Samuel Adams beer products. Meanwhile, a polarizing political... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Leadership; Strategy; Growth Management; Food and Beverage Industry; Boston; United States

July 1995
Article

A Contextual Uncertainty Condition for Behavior under Risk

By: David E. Bell

Keywords: Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty

October 2019
Article

Does Political Uncertainty Increase External Financing Costs? Measuring the Electoral Premium in Syndicated Lending

By: Olivia S. Kim

This article investigates the impact of political uncertainty on contractual lending terms using a large sample of syndicated loans and a within-firm estimation approach to achieve identification. Firms pay 7 basis points (bps) more on loans originated when their... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Political Elections; Financing and Loans; Developing Countries and Economies

Purchase

2017
Working Paper

The Need for Speed: Effects of Uncertainty Reduction in Patenting

By: Mike Horia Teodorescu

Patents are essential in commerce to establish property rights for ideas and to give equal protection to firms that develop new technologies. Young firms especially depend on the protection of intellectual property to bring a product from concept to market. However,... View Details

Keywords: Startups; Natural Language Processing; Machine Learning; Patents; Business Startups; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Green Technology Industry

December 2022
Article

Shaping Nascent Industries: Innovation Strategy and Regulatory Uncertainty in Personal Genomics

By: Cheng Gao and Rory McDonald

In nascent industries—whose new technologies are often poorly understood by regulators—contending with regulatory uncertainty can be crucial to organizational survival and growth. Prior research on nonmarket strategy has largely focused on established firms in mature... View Details

Keywords: Technological Change; Innovation; Qualitative Methods; New Categories; Entrepreneurship; Technological Innovation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy

June 2024
Case

Virya Therapeutics: The Certain Uncertainties of Preclinical Development

By: Satish Tadikonda, William Marks and Shardule Shah

Educators

2025
Working Paper

Navigating Choppy Waters: How U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses

By: David Atkin, Zoë Cullen and Ebehi Iyoha

This paper explores the impact of recent changes in the US trade policy environment on small businesses. Drawing on a survey of more than 4,000 small businesses conducted between March 22 and 31, 2025, we examine firms’ knowledge, expectations, and decisions during... View Details

Keywords: Trade; Risk and Uncertainty; Government Legislation; Globalization; International Relations; Small Business

Article

The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential

By: Daniella Kupor, Zakary L. Tormala and Michael I. Norton

Influence practitioners often highlight a target's achievements (e.g., "she is the city's top-rated chef"), but recent research reveals that highlighting a target's potential (e.g., "she could become the city's top-rated chef") can be more effective. We examine whether... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation

March–April 2013
Article

Vaporware, Suddenware and Trueware: New Product Preannouncements under Market Uncertainty

By: Elie Ofek and Ozge Turut

A firm may want to preannounce its plans to develop a new product in order to stimulate future demand. But given that such communications can affect rivals' incentives to develop the same new product, a firm may decide to preannounce untruthfully in order to deter... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Announcements; Competition; Product Launch; Product Development