Publications

2021
Working Paper

Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment

By: Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani

Contests that are designed to be consumed for entertainment by non-contestants are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. In this paper, we examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. We look to... View Details

Keywords: Contest Design; Information Preferences; Consumer Demand; Sports; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Demand and Consumers; Outcome or Result

SSRN

19 Nov 2004 - 22 Nov 2004
Conference Presentation

Managing Innovation and Product Development...Under Uncertainty

By: Alan MacCormack

Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Product Development; Management

15 Feb 2013
News

M&A Mavens: No Reason for Uncertainty

17 Mar 2021
Working Paper Summaries

Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment

Keywords: by Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani

May 2011
Article

Incentives and Problem Uncertainty in Innovation Contests: An Empirical Analysis

By: Kevin J. Boudreau, Nicola Lacetera and Karim R. Lakhani

Contests are a historically important and increasingly popular mechanism for encouraging innovation. A central concern in designing innovation contests is how many competitors to admit. Using a unique data set of 9,661 software contests, we provide evidence of two... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Innovation and Invention; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Value; Applications and Software; Competition; Performance; Theory; Practice

Find at Harvard

2021
Working Paper

When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju

25 Jul 2011
News

Five Tips for Coping with Uncertainty — and Finding Opportunity

November 2012 (Revised January 2013)
Case

Companion Diagnostics: Uncertainties for Approval and Reimbursement

By: Richard G. Hamermesh, Norman C. Selby and Phillip Andrews

The FDA approvals of novel therapeutics were seen as signs in the personalized medicine community of real progress in the growth of personalized medicine. The FDA's approval of such drugs, along with companion diagnostics, suggested a shift in thinking and regulatory... View Details

Keywords: Models Of Reimbursement; Personalized Medicine; Regulation; Healthcare Reform; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry; United States

Educators

18 Feb 2016
News

Uncertainty and Confusion: Parsing the FOMC Minutes

March 2024 (Revised June 2024)
Case

Kashat: Navigating the Uncertainties of the Egyptian Fintech Market

By: Paul A. Gompers and Ahmed Dahawy

Karim Nour, the founder of Kashat, an Egyptian nano-lending fintech company, is contemplating how to manage the growth of his startup. Over the summer of 2022, Kashat's loan disbursements had grown by nearly 40%, fueled by macroeconomic instability in Egypt. However,... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Business Model; Developing Countries and Economies; Acquisition; Business Exit or Shutdown; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Financing and Loans; Capital; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry; Egypt

Educators

02 Apr 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty

Keywords: by J. Peter Scoblic

July 1975
Article

An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Theory; Growth and Development; Risk and Uncertainty

Find at Harvard

April 2006
Background Note

Managing Innovation in an Uncertain World: Module 1: Innovation and Uncertainty

By: Alan D. MacCormack

Describes the first module of a Harvard Business School 30-session elective course called Managing Innovation in an Uncertain World. The course helps students understand the challenges that uncertainty implies for innovation and how to overcome these challenges. The... View Details

Keywords: Design; Curriculum and Courses; Innovation and Management; Projects; Opportunities; Perspective

Educators

Research Summary

Real Options and Financial Decisions Under Uncertainty

Marc L. Bertoneche is developing material relevant to the business world in this field. He is particularly interested in applying the Real Option approach to Brand Valuation. View Details

May–June 2018
Article

Data Uncertainty in Markov Chains: Application to Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Medical Innovations

By: Joel Goh, Mohsen Bayati, Stefanos A. Zenios, Sundeep Singh and David Moore

Cost-effectiveness studies of medical innovations often suffer from data inadequacy. When Markov chains are used as a modeling framework for such studies, this data inadequacy can manifest itself as imprecision in the elements of the transition matrix. In this paper,... View Details

Keywords: Markov Chains; Cost Effectiveness; Medical Innovations; Colorectal Cancer; Health Care and Treatment; Cost vs Benefits; Innovation and Invention; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry

Find at Harvard

2020
Working Paper

Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty

By: J. Peter Scoblic

This paper proposes to treat strategic foresight as a dynamic capability, providing a new theoretical lens on managerial judgment. Formulating strategy under uncertainty is a central challenge facing the modern firm. Analogy is thought to help managers make sense of... View Details

Keywords: Foresight; Dynamic Capabilities; Managerial Judgment; Risk and Uncertainty; Management; Strategy

October 2019
Article

Does Political Uncertainty Increase External Financing Costs? Measuring the Electoral Premium in Syndicated Lending

By: Olivia S. Kim

This article investigates the impact of political uncertainty on contractual lending terms using a large sample of syndicated loans and a within-firm estimation approach to achieve identification. Firms pay 7 basis points (bps) more on loans originated when their... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Political Elections; Financing and Loans; Developing Countries and Economies