Publications

April 2024 (Revised August 2024)
Case

The Israeli Innovation Authority: Decision-making in a Time of Uncertainty

By: Shai Bernstein, Sabrina Howell and Josh Lerner

April 2024
Article

Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter

We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries’ supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence... View Details

Keywords: Swap Spreads; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility

March 2024 (Revised November 2024)
Case

Kawasaki Heavy Industries Bets on Clean Hydrogen

By: Gunnar Trumbull, Nobuo Sato and Akiko Kanno

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI), an engineering manufacturer headquartered in Japan, was aiming to scale up its hydrogen production and establish a global hydrogen supply chain. The initiative was in line with Japan's energy strategy, as the country seeks to transition... View Details

Keywords: Renewable Energy; Demand and Consumers; Competition; Growth and Development Strategy; Infrastructure; Supply Chain; Manufacturing Industry; Energy Industry

March 2024
Simulation

'Storrowed'

By: Mitchell Weiss

The game was built to accompany "Storrowed": A Generative AI Exercise, available through Harvard Business Publishing. The game adds a timing element to "Storrowed" and enables the teacher to reward teams for strong prompts or penalize teams for believing AI... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk and Uncertainty

March 2024 (Revised June 2024)
Case

Kashat: Navigating the Uncertainties of the Egyptian Fintech Market

By: Paul A. Gompers and Ahmed Dahawy

Karim Nour, the founder of Kashat, an Egyptian nano-lending fintech company, is contemplating how to manage the growth of his startup. Over the summer of 2022, Kashat's loan disbursements had grown by nearly 40%, fueled by macroeconomic instability in Egypt. However,... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Business Model; Developing Countries and Economies; Acquisition; Business Exit or Shutdown; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Financing and Loans; Capital; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry; Egypt

March 2024
Case

Nomad: A License to Bank

By: Paul A. Gompers and Pedro Levindo

In late 2023, Lucas Vargas, CEO and co-founder of Nomad, a fintech that offered financial services in the United States for Brazilian residents, had to decide what to do to ensure the company’s continued expansion. Nomad launched its first product, a U.S. digital bank... View Details

March 2024 (Revised February 2025)
Case

Doing Business in São Paulo, Brazil

By: Laura Alfaro, Hise O. Gibson, Leonard A. Schlesinger and Pedro Levindo

The case gives readers an overview of key factors of doing business in Brazil, including Brazil’s economic transformation since its colonial years until 2023, when leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was sworn in for his third term, after the most polarized... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Growth; Economic Sectors; Economy; Macroeconomics; Business History; International Relations; Political Elections; Taxation; Consumer Behavior; Brazil; Latin America; Sao Paulo

February 2024 (Revised January 2025)
Case

AGENTS.inc: Pathways to Growth at an AI Startup

By: Frank Nagle, Manuel Hoffmann, Karoline Ströhlein and Susan Pinckney

The case describes the history of AGENTS.inc. Despite being a small startup, with only four employees, that had never had a funding round, the company boasted an impressive client portfolio including multiple Fortune 500 companies. While AGENTS.inc had been an early... View Details

February 2024
Case

Nuwa Capital: Investing During Uncertainty

By: Paul A. Gompers and Fares Khrais

Nuwa Capital (Nuwa) was a venture capital firm based in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. The business was founded in 2020 by Khaled Talhouni and his partners Sarah Abu Risheh, and Stephanie Nour Prince (they were later joined by Nitin Reen... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Disruption; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Growth and Development Strategy; Business Strategy; Decisions; Middle East; Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates; Dubai; Bahrain

February 2024 (Revised March 2024)
Teaching Note

X: The Foghorn Decision

By: Kyle Myers and Walter Frick

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 618-060. View Details

February 2024
Article

Come Together: Firm Boundaries and Delegation

By: Laura Alfaro, Nick Bloom, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger, Patrick Legros, Andrew F. Newman, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen

We develop an incomplete-contracts model to jointly study firm boundaries and the allocation of decision rights within them. Integration has an option value: it gives firm owners authority to delegate or centralize decision rights, depending on who can best solve... View Details

Keywords: Boundaries; Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk and Uncertainty

2025
Working Paper

Who Values Democracy?

By: Max Miller

This paper examines the conventional view that redistribution is central to the democratization process using data from stock markets. Consistent with this view, democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk.... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Financial Markets; Valuation

January 2024
Case

Frank Cornelissen: The Great Sulfite Debate (A)

By: Tiona Zuzul and Susan Pinckney

In 2018, artisanal Italian vineyard Frank Cornelissen was one of the world’s leading natural wine vineyards. Its founder, Frank Cornelissen, faced weather related conditions that forced him to have to decide between staying true to the tenets of the natural wine... View Details

January 2024
Teaching Note

Frank Cornelissen: The Great Sulfite Debate (A) & (B)

By: Tiona Zuzul

Teaching Note for HBS Case Nos. 724-391 and 724-398. In 2018, artisanal Italian vineyard Frank Cornelissen was one of the world’s leading natural wine vineyards. Its founder, Frank Cornelissen, faced weather related conditions that forced him to have to decide between... View Details

January 2024
Supplement

Frank Cornelissen: The Great Sulfite Debate (B)

By: Tiona Zuzul and Susan Pinckney

In 2018, artisanal Italian vineyard Frank Cornelissen was one of the world’s leading natural wine vineyards. Its founder, Frank Cornelissen, faced weather related conditions that forced him to have to decide between staying true to the tenets of the natural wine... View Details

2024
Article

Financial Constraints and Short-Term Planning Are Linked to Flood Risk Adaptation Gaps in U.S. Cities

By: Shirley Lu and Anya Nakhmurina

Adaptation is critical in reducing the inevitable impact of climate change. Here we study cities’ adaptation to elevated flood risk by introducing a linguistic measure of adaptation extracted from financial disclosures of 431 US cities over 2013–2020. While cities with... View Details

Keywords: City; Natural Disasters; Climate Change; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategic Planning

January 2024
Case

National Football League and Private 5G

By: Andy Wu, Grant Son and Shuoyu Chen

On September 9, 2021, the National Football League (NFL) designated Verizon as its official 5G partner in a 10-year deal, committed to enhance the experience for NFL teams, players, and fans in stadiums. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said, “Verizon will help us... View Details

Keywords: Football; National Football League; 5G; Verizon; Communication Technology; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Technology Adoption; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Strategy; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Sports Industry; Telecommunications Industry

2024
Working Paper

Bootstrap Diagnostics for Irregular Estimators

By: Isaiah Andrews and Jesse M. Shapiro

Empirical researchers frequently rely on normal approximations in order to summarize and communicate uncertainty about their findings to their scientific audience. When such approximations are unreliable, they can lead the audience to make misguided decisions. We... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Decision Choices and Conditions

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2024
Conference Paper

Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Sree Harsha Tanneru and Chirag Agarwal

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as powerful tools for several high-stakes natural language processing (NLP) applications. Recent prompting works claim to elicit intermediate reasoning steps and key tokens that serve as proxy explanations for LLM... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Model; AI and Machine Learning