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    • All HBS Web  (254)
      • Faculty Publications  (60)

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      • December 2011
      • Article

      Stock Price Fragility

      By: Robin Greenwood and David Thesmar
      We investigate the relationship between ownership structure of financial assets and non-fundamental risk. We define an asset to be fragile if it is susceptible to non-fundamental trading shocks. An asset can be fragile because of concentrated ownership or because its... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Price; Ownership; Risk and Uncertainty; Assets; System Shocks; Financial Liquidity; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Volatility; Relationships; United States
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      Greenwood, Robin, and David Thesmar. "Stock Price Fragility." Journal of Financial Economics 102, no. 3 (December 2011): 471–490.
      • 2012
      • Working Paper

      Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
      We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-065, January 2011. (Revised September 2012, Internet Appendix Here.)
      • December 2010
      • Article

      Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Motivation and Incentives; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Framework; Problems and Challenges; Interest Rates; Cost; Developing Countries and Economies; Service Operations
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race." Journal of International Money and Finance 29, no. 8 (December 2010): 1706–1726. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 05-053 and NBER Working Paper No. 13131.)
      • September 2010
      • Article

      How Firms Respond to Being Rated

      By: Aaron K. Chatterji and Michael W. Toffel
      While many rating systems seek to help buyers overcome information asymmetries when making purchasing decisions, we investigate how these ratings also influence the companies being rated. We hypothesize that ratings are particularly likely to spur responses from firms... View Details
      Keywords: System; Information; Decisions; Cost; Opportunities; Performance; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Economics; Theory; System Shocks; Rank and Position
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      Chatterji, Aaron K., and Michael W. Toffel. "How Firms Respond to Being Rated." Strategic Management Journal 31, no. 9 (September 2010): 917–945. (Lead article.)
      • May 2010
      • Article

      Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles

      By: Victoria Ivashina and David Scharfstein
      Cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. This cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers' collateral, which affect firms' ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant (Ben S.... View Details
      Keywords: Business Cycles; Capital; Credit; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; System Shocks; Financial Services Industry
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      Ivashina, Victoria, and David Scharfstein. "Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 100, no. 2 (May 2010): 57–61.
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability: A New Framework

      By: Dale F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie
      This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Statements; Economy; Financial Condition; Central Banking; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Management Practices and Processes; Risk Management; Measurement and Metrics; System Shocks
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      Gray, Dale F., Robert C. Merton, and Zvi Bodie. "Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability: A New Framework." In Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking. Vol. 15, edited by Alfaro A. Rodrigo and Cifuentes S. Rodrigo., 2010.
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      Understanding and Coping with the Increasing Risk of System-Level Accidents

      By: Dutch Leonard and Arnold M. Howitt
      The world has seen a number of recent events in which major systems came to a standstill, not from one cause alone but from the interaction of a combination of causes. System-level accidents occur when anomalies or errors in different parts of an interconnected system... View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Globalization; Risk Management; Boundaries; System Shocks
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      Leonard, Dutch, and Arnold M. Howitt. "Understanding and Coping with the Increasing Risk of System-Level Accidents." In Integrative Risk Management: Advanced Disaster Recovery, edited by Simon Woodward. Zurich, Switzerland: Swiss Re, Centre for Global Dialogue, 2010.
      • July 2008
      • Article

      Crime and Punishment in the 'American Dream'

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Juan Dubra
      We observe that countries where belief in the "American dream" (i.e., effort pays) prevails also set harsher punishment for criminals. We know that beliefs are also correlated with several features of the economic system (taxation, social insurance, etc). Our objective... View Details
      Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Economic Systems; Values and Beliefs; Law Enforcement; Mathematical Methods; Personal Characteristics; United States
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Juan Dubra. "Crime and Punishment in the 'American Dream'." Journal of Public Economics 92, no. 7 (July 2008).
      • May 2008
      • Article

      Excess Comovement of Stock Returns: Evidence from Cross-sectional Variation in Nikkei 225 Weights

      By: Robin Greenwood
      In the presence of limits to arbitrage, cross-sectional variation in periodic investor demand should be related to the degree of comovement of returns. I exploit the unusual weighting system of the Nikkei 225 index in Japan to identify cross-sectional variation in... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Investment; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Weight; Performance Expectations; Behavior; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Excess Comovement of Stock Returns: Evidence from Cross-sectional Variation in Nikkei 225 Weights." Review of Financial Studies 21, no. 3 (May 2008): 1153–1186.
      • December 2007 (Revised September 2009)
      • Case

      Wall Street's First Panic (A)

      By: David A. Moss and Cole Bolton
      In the early 1790s, a flood of newly issued public and private securities sparked an investment boom in the nascent United States. In New York, the bustling commercial district along Wall Street emerged as the center of the city's securities trade. One of the many... View Details
      Keywords: History; Financial Instruments; Auctions; Financial Crisis; Business and Government Relations; Financial Services Industry
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      Moss, David A., and Cole Bolton. "Wall Street's First Panic (A)." Harvard Business School Case 708-002, December 2007. (Revised September 2009.)
      • March 2005
      • Article

      Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

      By: Robin Greenwood
      I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details
      Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
      • 2005
      • Working Paper

      Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Developing Countries and Economies; Mathematical Methods
      Citation
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 05-053, January 2005. (Revised March 2010. Also NBER Working Paper No. 13131.)
      • February 1999
      • Article

      The Persistence of Shocks to Profitability

      By: Anita M. McGahan and Michael E. Porter
      In this study, we use data for 1981 through 1994 on a large sample of U.S. companies to examine the persistence of incremental industry, corporate-parent, and business-specific effects on profitability. Our results indicate that the incremental effects of industry on... View Details
      Keywords: Profit; System Shocks; Strategy
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      McGahan, Anita M., and Michael E. Porter. "The Persistence of Shocks to Profitability." Review of Economics and Statistics 81, no. 1 (February 1999): 143–153.
      • 1998
      • Chapter

      Competitive Policy Shocks and Strategic Management

      By: P. Ghemawat, R. E. Kennedy and Tarun Khanna
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Corporate Strategy; System Shocks; Globalization
      Citation
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      Ghemawat, P., R. E. Kennedy, and Tarun Khanna. "Competitive Policy Shocks and Strategic Management." In Managing Strategically in an Interconnected World, edited by Michael A. Hitt, Joan E. Ricart i Costa, and Robert D. Nixon. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
      • November 1997
      • Case

      Odwalla, Inc.

      By: Ray A. Goldberg and Tom Clay
      Odwalla suffered one of the worst food safety crises in history and not only survived but continued to grow. Now they need to decide how the crisis affected their business and how to expand their business. View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development; Crisis Management; Safety; Expansion; System Shocks; Food and Beverage Industry
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      Goldberg, Ray A., and Tom Clay. "Odwalla, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 598-047, November 1997.
      • November 1995 (Revised February 1996)
      • Case

      Monsanto Company: The Coming of Age of Bio-Technology

      By: Ray A. Goldberg and Thomas N. Urban Jr
      Monsanto has one product, Roundup, accounting for 30% of company net income and is going off patent. How should the company position itself and its products in the future? View Details
      Keywords: Patents; Product Positioning; Strategic Planning; System Shocks; Biotechnology Industry
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      Goldberg, Ray A., and Thomas N. Urban Jr. "Monsanto Company: The Coming of Age of Bio-Technology." Harvard Business School Case 596-034, November 1995. (Revised February 1996.)
      • 1995
      • Chapter

      Reality Shock

      By: L. Hill
      Keywords: System Shocks
      Citation
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      Hill, L. "Reality Shock." In The Blackwell Encyclopedic Dictionary of Organizational Behavior, edited by Nigel Nicholson. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, 1995.
      • September 1992 (Revised March 1998)
      • Case

      Japan Confronts an Interdependent World

      By: George C. Lodge
      Traces the evolution of Japan's economic strategy from 1972 to 1992. Describes the collapse of the Japanese stock market in the spring of 1992, raising the question: Is this the end of Japan's miraculous growth? To help students consider that question, the case... View Details
      Keywords: Policy; Financial Markets; Information Technology; System Shocks; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Crisis; Government and Politics; Growth and Development; Situation or Environment; Japan; United States
      Citation
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      Lodge, George C. "Japan Confronts an Interdependent World." Harvard Business School Case 793-034, September 1992. (Revised March 1998.)
      • Research Summary

      Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets

      By: Laura Alfaro
      The post-Global Financial Crisis period shows a surge in corporate leverage in emerging markets and a number of countries with deteriorated corporate financial fragility indicators (Altman’s Z-score). Firm size plays a critical role in the relationship between... View Details
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      The Institutional Sources of Economic Transformation: Explaining Variation in Energy Transitions

      By: Jared Finnegan, Phillip Lipscy, Jonas Meckling and Florence Metz
      Why are some governments more effective in promoting economic change than others? We develop a theory of the institutional sources of economic transformation. Institutions can facilitate transformation through two central mechanisms: insulation and compensation.... View Details
      Keywords: Policy; Business and Government Relations; Supply and Industry; Demand and Consumers; Transformation; Economic Systems; Climate Change
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      Finnegan, Jared, Phillip Lipscy, Jonas Meckling, and Florence Metz. "The Institutional Sources of Economic Transformation: Explaining Variation in Energy Transitions." Journal of Politics (forthcoming).
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