Publications

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May 2017
Article

Agent-based Modeling: A Guide for Social Psychologists

By: Joshua Conrad Jackson, David Rand, Kevin Lewis, Michael I. Norton and Kurt Gray

Agent-based modeling is a longstanding but underused method that allows researchers to simulate artificial worlds for hypothesis testing and theory building. Agent-based models (ABMs) offer unprecedented control and statistical power by allowing researchers to... View Details

Keywords: Social Psychology; Marketing; Mathematical Methods

November 2007
Background Note

Asset Allocation I

By: Joshua D. Coval, Erik Stafford, Rodrigo Osmo, John Jernigan, Zack Page and Paulo Passoni

The goal of these simulations is to understand the mathematics of mean-variance optimization and the equilibrium pricing of risk if all investors use this rule with common information sets. Simulation A focuses on five to 10 years of monthly sector returns that are... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Capital; Investment Return; Risk Management; Mathematical Methods

Educators

18 Jun 2024
Research & Ideas

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

pandemic- and Ukraine-related supplier disruptions. They followed the frequency and daily price changes on almost 585,000 products from 58 companies in Western Europe and the United States. Using that data, researchers simulated what... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services; Banking

February 2010
Supplement

Real Property Negotiation Game (CW): Excel Model

By: Arthur I. Segel, John Vogel and Justin Seth Ginsburgh

This Excel model is used to analyze the deals made in The Real Property Negotiation Game, which simulates the experience negotiating the sale, purchase, or financing of a property. View Details

Keywords: Property; Negotiation Deal; Sales; Financing and Loans; Mathematical Methods; Real Estate Industry

Purchase

November 2022
Article

Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings

By: Kristin Blesch, Oliver P. Hauser and Jon M. Jachimowicz

Prior research has found mixed results on how economic inequality is related to various outcomes. These contradicting findings may in part stem from a predominant focus on the Gini coefficient, which only narrowly captures inequality. Here, we conceptualize the... View Details

Keywords: Economic Inequalty; Gini Coefficient; Income Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Social Issues; Health; Status and Position

Purchase

2020
Working Paper

Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty

By: J. Peter Scoblic

This paper proposes to treat strategic foresight as a dynamic capability, providing a new theoretical lens on managerial judgment. Formulating strategy under uncertainty is a central challenge facing the modern firm. Analogy is thought to help managers make sense of... View Details

Keywords: Foresight; Dynamic Capabilities; Managerial Judgment; Risk and Uncertainty; Management; Strategy

January 2009
Journal Article

The Fiscal Impact of High-skilled Emigration: Flows of Indians to the U.S.

By: Mihir Desai, D. Kapur, J. McHale and K Rogers

Easing immigration restrictions for the highly skilled in developed countries portends a future of increased human capital outflows from developing countries. The myriad consequences of these developments for developing countries include the direct loss of the fiscal... View Details

Keywords: Talent and Talent Management; Diasporas; Developing Countries and Economies; Taxation; Compensation and Benefits; Human Capital; Mathematical Methods; India; United States

2011
Working Paper

Fairness, Efficiency and Flexibility in Organ Allocation for Kidney Transplantation

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Vivek F. Farias and Nikolaos Trichakis

We propose a scalable, data-driven method for designing national policies for the allocation of deceased donor kidneys to patients on a waiting list, in a fair and efficient way. We focus on policies that have the same form as the one currently used in the U.S. In... View Details

Keywords: Fairness; Policy; Health Disorders; Marketplace Matching; Performance Effectiveness; Rank and Position; Health Industry; United States

We define causal estimands for experiments on single time series, extending the potential outcome framework to dealing with temporal data. Our approach allows the estimation of a broad class of these estimands and exact... View Details

Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation.

Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers' decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to... View Details

January–February 2013
Article

Fairness, Efficiency and Flexibility in Organ Allocation for Kidney Transplantation

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Vivek F. Farias and Nikolaos Trichakis

We propose a scalable, data-driven method for designing national policies for the allocation of deceased donor kidneys to patients on a waiting list, in a fair and efficient way. We focus on policies that have the same form as the one currently used in the United... View Details

Keywords: Health Care Policy; Healthcare; Fairness; Resource Allocation; Policy; Health Care and Treatment; Medical Specialties; Health Industry; United States

November 2019
Article

How Do Sales Efforts Pay Off? Dynamic Panel Data Analysis in the Nerlove-Arrow Framework

By: Doug J. Chung, Byungyeon Kim and Byoung G. Park

This paper evaluates the short- and long-term value of sales representatives’ detailing visits to different types of physicians. By understanding the dynamic effect of sales calls across heterogeneous physicians, we provide guidance on the design of optimal call... View Details

Keywords: Nerlove-Arrow Framework; Stock-of-goodwill; Dynamic Panel Data; Serial Correlation; Instrumental Variables; Sales Effectiveness; Detailing; Analytics and Data Science; Sales; Analysis; Performance Effectiveness; Pharmaceutical Industry

This paper evaluates the short- and long-term value of sales representatives’ detailing visits to different types of physicians. By understanding the dynamic effect of sales calls across heterogeneous physicians, we provide guidance on the design of optimal call... View Details

Research Summary

Health-care Applications

Active postmarketing drug surveillance. There is substantial interest within the U.S. health community and among health policymakers in developing a surveillance system that scans public health databases in order to proactively detect potential drug safety... View Details

2009
Working Paper

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market—rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities—led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details

Keywords: Housing; Mortgages; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; Mathematical Methods; Real Estate Industry; United States

2023
Working Paper

Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation

By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov

Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to... View Details

Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior

SSRN

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data,... View Details

2016
Article

Penalized Fast Subset Scanning

By: Skyler Speakman, Sriram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill

We present the penalized fast subset scan (PFSS), a new and general framework for scalable and accurate pattern detection. PFSS enables exact and efficient identification of the most anomalous subsets of the data, as measured by a likelihood ratio scan statistic.... View Details

Keywords: Disease Surveillance; Likelihood Ratio Statistic; Pattern Detection; Scan Statistic; Mathematical Methods

Purchase

October–December 2022
Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction