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Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (73)

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    • All HBS Web  (1,053)
      • Faculty Publications  (73)

      Real Interest Rate RiskRemove Real Interest Rate Risk →

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      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
      Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
      • December 2010
      • Article

      Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Motivation and Incentives; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Framework; Problems and Challenges; Interest Rates; Cost; Developing Countries and Economies; Service Operations
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race." Journal of International Money and Finance 29, no. 8 (December 2010): 1706–1726. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 05-053 and NBER Working Paper No. 13131.)
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Crashes and Collateralized Lending

      By: Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford
      This paper develops a parsimonious static model for characterizing financing terms in collateralized lending markets. We characterize the systematic risk exposures for a variety of securities and develop a simple indifference-pricing framework to value the systematic... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Cost of Capital; Credit; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Investment; Framework; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry
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      Jurek, Jakub W., and Erik Stafford. "Crashes and Collateralized Lending." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-025, September 2010.
      • June 2010
      • Case

      FoldRite Furniture Company: Planning to Meet a Surge in Demand

      By: Steven C. Wheelwright and Afarin Bellisario
      Demand for folding and stackable chairs and tables at FoldRite Furniture Co. is unexpectedly strong. The company spent the previous two years improving manufacturing quality and efficiency, dropping poor-performing product lines, developing new products that are... View Details
      Keywords: Manufacturing; Production Capacity; Production Scheduling; Risk Management; Growth Management; Production; Logistics; Order Taking and Fulfillment; Business Strategy; Manufacturing Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Europe
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      Wheelwright, Steven C., and Afarin Bellisario. "FoldRite Furniture Company: Planning to Meet a Surge in Demand." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-555, June 2010.
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors

      By: Luis M. Viceira and Ricardo Gimeno
      This article explores the demand for the euro for risk management purposes and the evidence of stock market integration in the euro area. We define a reserve currency as one that investors demand either because it helps them hedge real interest risk and inflation risk,... View Details
      Keywords: Volatility; Inflation and Deflation; Capital Markets; Currency; Stocks; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management
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      Viceira, Luis M., and Ricardo Gimeno. "The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors." Chap. 4 in Spain and the Euro. The First Ten Years, 149–178. Madrid, Spain: Banco de España, 2010.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

      By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton
      The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market—rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities—led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details
      Keywords: Housing; Mortgages; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; Mathematical Methods; Real Estate Industry; United States
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      Khandani, Amir E., Andrew W. Lo, and Robert C. Merton. "Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15362, September 2009.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

      By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton
      The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market-rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities-led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details
      Keywords: Equity; Mortgages; Interest Rates; Price; Housing; Risk and Uncertainty; United States
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      Khandani, Amir E., Andrew W. Lo, and Robert C. Merton. "Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-023, September 2009. (Revised July 2010.)
      • April 2009
      • Teaching Note

      First National Bank's Golden Opportunity (TN)

      By: Shawn A. Cole
      Teaching Note for [208072]. View Details
      Keywords: Saving; Product; Interest Rates; Personal Finance; Cost vs Benefits; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment; Problems and Challenges; Demand and Consumers; Product Launch; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; South Africa
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      Cole, Shawn A. "First National Bank's Golden Opportunity (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 209-123, April 2009.
      • May 2009
      • Article

      Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads

      By: Victoria Ivashina
      The paper estimates the cost arising from information asymmetry between the lead bank and members of the lending syndicate. In a lending syndicate, the lead bank retains only a fraction of the loan but acts as the intermediary between the borrower and the syndicate... View Details
      Keywords: Cost; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Capital; Investment Portfolio; Credit; Diversification; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Ivashina, Victoria. "Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads." Journal of Financial Economics 92, no. 2 (May 2009): 300–319.
      • Article

      Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortions and government... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return; Development Economics; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Cost; Interest Rates; Developing Countries and Economies; Welfare; United States; Brazil
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?" Review of International Economics 17, no. 5 (November 2009): 890–905. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 06-005 and NBER Working Paper No. 13119.)
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Financial Development, Bank Ownership, and Growth. Or, Does Quantity Imply Quality?

      By: Shawn A. Cole
      In 1980, India nationalized its large private banks. This induced different bank ownership patterns across different towns, allowing credible identification of the effects of bank ownership on financial development, lending rates, and the quality of intermediation, as... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Growth; Credit; Banks and Banking; Interest Rates; State Ownership; Private Ownership; Banking Industry; India
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      Cole, Shawn A. "Financial Development, Bank Ownership, and Growth. Or, Does Quantity Imply Quality?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-002, July 2008.
      • February 2006 (Revised August 2006)
      • Case

      Auctioning Morningstar

      By: Malcolm P. Baker and James Quinn
      Morningstar, a publisher of data and ratings for mutual fund investors, is considering an auction-based approach to the company's upcoming IPO, with management weighing the risks and benefits of the auction approach vs. a traditional underwritten offering. View Details
      Keywords: Financial Strategy; Initial Public Offering; Stock Shares; Cost vs Benefits; Strategy; Auctions; Business or Company Management; Conflict of Interests; Publishing Industry
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      Baker, Malcolm P., and James Quinn. "Auctioning Morningstar." Harvard Business School Case 206-023, February 2006. (Revised August 2006.)
      • March 2005
      • Article

      Sovereign Debt As a Contingent Claim: A Quantitative Approach

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      We construct a dynamic equilibrium model with contingent service and adverse selection to quantitatively study sovereign debt. In the model, benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. For a wide set of parameters, the only equilibrium is one... View Details
      Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Interest Rates; Balance and Stability; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Mathematical Methods; Management Style; Segmentation; Debt Securities; Banking Industry
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Sovereign Debt As a Contingent Claim: A Quantitative Approach." Journal of International Economics 65, no. 2 (March 2005).
      • November 2003 (Revised March 2004)
      • Case

      Drilling South: Petrobras Evaluates Pecom

      By: Mihir A. Desai and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho
      The Brazilian oil company, Petrobras, is evaluating the acquisition of an Argentine oil company, the Perez Companc Group (Pecom). The acquisition would increase Petrobras' oil reserves and expand its interests outside Brazil, a significant step for the largest company... View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Non-Renewable Energy; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Corporate Governance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; State Ownership; Performance Evaluation; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Energy Industry; Argentina; Brazil
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      Desai, Mihir A., and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho. "Drilling South: Petrobras Evaluates Pecom." Harvard Business School Case 204-043, November 2003. (Revised March 2004.)
      • 2003
      • Conference Paper

      Follow the Money: What Really Drives Technology Innovation in Construction

      By: John D. Macomber
      Technology enthusiasts, academics, and software companies remain concerned about the slow pace of innovation in the construction industry. Tools are widely available that seem to provide eminently sensible and clearly apparent improvement to the process of design and... View Details
      Keywords: Buildings and Facilities; Technological Innovation; Construction; Design; Performance Improvement; Motivation and Incentives; Knowledge Management; Adoption; Business Model; Capital Structure; Supply Chain
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      Macomber, John D. "Follow the Money: What Really Drives Technology Innovation in Construction." Paper presented at the American Society of Civil Engineers, 2003.
      • January 2001 (Revised August 2003)
      • Case

      Student Educational Loan Fund, Inc. (Abridged)

      By: Peter Tufano
      Rick Melnick oversees the Student Educational Loan Fund (SELF), which provides loans to Harvard Business School students. SELF is changing the terms of student loans from variable-rate with semiannual payments to fixed-rate loans with equal monthly payments. Melnick... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Financing and Loans; Business Education; Interest Rates; Education Industry; Boston
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      Tufano, Peter, and Cameron Poetzscher. "Student Educational Loan Fund, Inc. (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 201-083, January 2001. (Revised August 2003.)
      • October 1998 (Revised May 2001)
      • Case

      Preview Travel (A)

      By: William A. Sahlman, Nicole Tempest, Daniel H Case III and Robert Keller
      Preview Travel was a leader in the online travel industry, having generated $80 million in bookings in 1997 and growing at a 34% compound annual growth rate per quarter. This case describes the evolution of Preview Travel's business plan and financing strategy and... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Business Model; Initial Public Offering; Valuation; Internet and the Web; Business Plan; Capital; Financial Strategy; Travel Industry; United States
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      Sahlman, William A., Nicole Tempest, Daniel H Case III, and Robert Keller. "Preview Travel (A)." Harvard Business School Case 899-085, October 1998. (Revised May 2001.)
      • April 1996 (Revised August 2005)
      • Case

      Jedi Bank

      By: William J. Poorvu and John H. Vogel Jr.
      Major Insurance Co. is a $15 billion insurance company that is an active, multi-family mortgage leader. This case is part of a negotiation game simulation that also includes Sunshine Villas, Silver Lane Apartments, and Jason Bosworth. View Details
      Keywords: Mortgages; Interest Rates; Financing and Loans; Property; Negotiation Tactics; Management; Real Estate Industry; Real Estate Industry
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      Poorvu, William J., and John H. Vogel Jr. "Jedi Bank." Harvard Business School Case 396-327, April 1996. (Revised August 2005.)
      • December 1995 (Revised February 1997)
      • Case

      Student Educational Loan Fund, Inc.

      By: Peter Tufano
      Rick Melnick oversees the Student Educational Loan Fund (SELF), which provides loans to Harvard Business School students. SELF is changing the terms of student loans from variable-rate with semiannual payments to fixed-rate loans with equal monthly payments. Melnick... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Financial Services Industry
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      Tufano, Peter, and Cameron Poetzscher. "Student Educational Loan Fund, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 296-046, December 1995. (Revised February 1997.)
      • February 1994 (Revised July 2008)
      • Case

      Banc One Corporation: Asset and Liability Management

      By: Benjamin C. Esty, Peter Tufano and Jon Headley
      Banc One's share price has been falling recently due to analyst and investor concern over the bank's heavy use of interest rate derivatives. Dick Lodge, chief investment officer in charge of the bank's investment and derivative portfolio, must recommend to the CEO a... View Details
      Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Financial Management; Interest Rates; Investment Portfolio; Governance Controls; Risk Management; Banking Industry
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      Esty, Benjamin C., Peter Tufano, and Jon Headley. "Banc One Corporation: Asset and Liability Management." Harvard Business School Case 294-079, February 1994. (Revised July 2008.)
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