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- All HBS Web (112)
- Faculty Publications (25)
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- 24 Sep 2020
- Research & Ideas
Financial Meltdowns Are More Predictable Than We Thought
Red-zone or “R-zone” for short. Countries fall into the “business R-zone” when: Credit extended to firms rises for three years at a rate that reaches the top 20 percent of past experience. Stock market returns reach the top third of past experience during the same... View Details
- 18 Oct 2004
- Research & Ideas
The Bias of Wall Street Analysts
up until the point (and even after) the company tumbled off a cliff. Indeed, HBS professor Mark Bradshaw and collaborators Scott Richardson and Richard Sloan found that pre-year 2000 forecasts and recommendations done by Wall Street... View Details
- 12 Jul 2010
- Research & Ideas
Rocket Science Retailing: A Practical Guide
aligned in their thinking. Analysts are often in frequent and close contact with management, even though they're not privy to inside information. Examining analysts' sales forecasts in 2008 reveals that analysts—and View Details
- 05 Dec 2012
- What Do You Think?
Should Managers Bother Listening to Predictions?
identify fairly reliable predictions from the guesses." Others identified people as the weak point in the process. Adam Hartung commented that " everyone should be evaluating trends and making forecasts they use to guide... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
- 27 Mar 2018
- First Look
First Look at New Research, March 27, 2018
reforms have the strongest impact in medical fields in which the probability of facing a malpractice claim is the largest, and they do not seem to affect the amount of new technologies of the highest and lowest quality. Our results... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 09 Dec 2015
- Research Event
How Do You Predict Demand and Set Prices For Products Never Sold Before?
explained that the world of business analytics includes descriptive analytics (analyzing what has happened), predictive analytics (analyzing data to figure out what will probably happen), and prescriptive analytics (using data to decide... View Details
- 04 May 2020
- Research & Ideas
Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business
headlines from market-driven data and options. When much of the world economy is shut for weeks and possibly months, cascading bankruptcies and higher debt loads probably mean a tightening of purchasing decisions and capital expenditures... View Details
Keywords: by Frank V. Cespedes
- 05 Feb 2008
- First Look
First Look: February 5, 2008
Ostrovsky, and Schwarz. We prove that convergence occurs with probability 1, and we compute the expected time until convergence. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-056.pdf Attracting Flows by Attracting Big Clients:... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 11 Dec 2007
- First Look
First Look: December 11, 2007
Working PapersThe Seer of Wellesley Hills: Roger Babson and the Babson Statistical Organization Author:Walter A. Friedman Abstract Roger Babson was a pioneer of the business-forecasting industry in the United States in the early twentieth century. He built the... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 19 Apr 2004
- Research & Ideas
Ground-Floor Opportunities for Retail in India
you to evolve with the customer.— Kishore Biyani, Pantaloon Retail What is the mall's role in the panelists' businesses? "It's probably not the right strategy for Intergold," said Jain. Consumer research has shown that at least... View Details
- 05 Nov 2007
- Research & Ideas
The Changing Face of American Innovation
new research based on patent and trademark data by Harvard Business School professor William Kerr drills down to further identify the probable ethnic composition of U.S. inventors, the industries they influence, and the geographies they... View Details
- 15 Aug 2016
- Research & Ideas
Black Swans and Big Trends Can Ruin Anyone's Internet Prediction
how we thought about online opportunities one year after the dot-com bubble burst. In retrospect, many of my thoughts about the internet’s future evolution missed the mark. If you think history repeats itself, then these forecasting... View Details
- 19 Oct 2010
- First Look
First Look: October 19, 2010
Working PapersValuation when Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased Author:Richard S. Ruback Abstract This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 01 Dec 2015
- First Look
December 1, 2015
https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=50046 The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications By: Siriwardane, Emil Abstract—I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 07 Oct 2013
- Research & Ideas
The Case for Combating Climate Change with Nuclear Power and Fracking
If you ask any given environmentalist to identify the biggest threat to the planet, you may expect to hear about man-made climate change, consumerism, or overpopulation. But if you ask Harvard Business School's Joseph B. Lassiter, he'll toss in another: single-issue... View Details
- 06 Sep 2022
- Research & Ideas
Curbing an Unlikely Culprit of Rising Drug Prices: Pharmaceutical Donations
Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to constrain price growth of existing drugs, cap seniors’ out-of-pocket drug spending, and eventually enable drug price negotiations, Dafny says. While “it's a little too soon to forecast the impact of... View Details
- 28 Jun 2011
- First Look
First Look: June 28
the return predictability. In addition, we find that sell-side analysts are subject to these same information processing constraints, as their forecast revisions of easy-to-analyze firms predict their future revisions of more complicated... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 17 Sep 2013
- First Look
First Look: September 17
impact people's feelings about their decisions. We compare post-choice satisfaction from choices made by mind wandering to reason based choices and randomly assigned outcomes. Participants chose a poster by mind wandering or deliberating-or were randomly assigned a... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 22 Apr 2020
- Research Event
How Investors Are Sizing Up Climate Change’s Risks—and Opportunities
Until a few years ago, climate change’s potential impact seemed abstract for many investors. Now, as sea levels rise, hurricanes intensify, and droughts threaten food supplies, many investors are confronting its financial realities. But it’s not a simple calculation.... View Details
- 19 Jul 2016
- First Look
July 19, 2016
Abstract—We estimate the causal effect of sovereign default on the equity returns of Argentine firms. We identify this effect by exploiting changes in the probability of Argentine sovereign default induced by legal rulings in the case of... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne