Publications

November 2016 (Revised April 2018)
Case

reMarkable: e-Writing the Future

By: Elie Ofek and Curtis Hsu

Magnus Wanberg is the creator of reMarkable, a breakthrough e-writer device set apart from similar products on the market by having solved the frustrating “slow ink” problem typically experienced on pen-based electronic devices, thus providing a “pen and paper” like... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurial Marketing; Innovation Management; Go To Market Strategy; Marketing Plan; Target Market; Digital Devices; Consumer Electronics; Forecasting; Information Technology; Marketing Strategy; Innovation and Management; Marketing Channels; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Marketing; Product Development; Electronics Industry

January 2019
Article

Bubbles for Fama

By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You

We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

2003
Article

Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns

By: Michael B. Clement, Richard Frankel and Jeffrey Miller

In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Disclosure; Price; Stocks; Investment Return

2023
Working Paper

The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Return; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

October 2002
Article

Differences of Opinion and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Karl B. Diether, Christopher J. Malloy and Anna Scherbina

We provide evidence that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts earn lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is most pronounced in small stocks, and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Interpreting... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Valuation; Investment Return

March 1997
Background Note

Copper and Zinc Markets 1996

By: Peter Tufano

Provides background information on copper and zinc markets as of mid-1996. Discusses supply and demand conditions, forecasts of the spot prices of the metals, and contracts for future delivery (forwards, futures, and options). View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Metals and Minerals; Supply and Industry; Mining Industry

2012
Working Paper

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks

Research Summary

Effective Capital Market Communications

Hutton's most recent research and cases examine how managers enhance the credibility and effectiveness of their financial reports and voluntary disclosures. Her most recent working paper, "Effective Voluntary Disclosure" (co-authored with Greg Miller, HBS, and Douglas... View Details

26 Oct 2010
News

Sweeney, Retsinas Interview About U.S. Housing Market

2010
Working Paper

When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs

By: Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart Gilson and Belen Villalonga

We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs—a setting in which analysts' ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Subsidiaries; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Initial Public Offering; Price; Reports; Research

February 1997 (Revised May 1998)
Case

Tire City, Inc.

By: W. Carl Kester

A small, rapidly growing retail distributor of automotive tires must present a set of forecasted financial statements to a bank in order to obtain a five-year loan. Expected growth rates given in the case and historical financial ratios derived from recent financial... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Financing and Loans; Price; Supply Chain; Distribution Industry; Retail Industry

June 2013
Article

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Quality; Bonds; Forecasting and Prediction; Credit

August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

February 1982 (Revised August 1985)
Case

U.S. Retail Coffee Market (A)

Set in mid-1978, this case covers all aspects of the U.S. retail coffee market both cross-sectionally and historically. The market is recovering from dramatic price rises and volume drops. The overall issue is the forecast of future market evolution and the... View Details

Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Industry Growth; Market Timing; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States

January 2008
Background Note

Equity Options

By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford

The goal of this simulation is to understand the reliance of option values on volatility. When an investor trades an option, they are essentially trading volatility. Therefore, much of the focus in this lesson is on forecasting volatility. Students are able to use two... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Stock Options; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Value

15 Sep 2015
First Look

September 15, 2015

Operations Management Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization By: Ferreira, Kris J., Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi Abstract—We present our work with an online... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

January 2017
Article

Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns

By: Tom Y. Chang, Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon and Eugene F. Soltes

We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Investment