Publications

2013
Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States

SSRN

February 2007 (Revised January 2008)
Supplement

Multifactor Models (CW)

By: Malcolm P. Baker

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Cost of Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Performance Evaluation

Purchase

April 2024
Article

A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification

By: Hsin-Hsiao Scott Wang, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow and Caleb Nelson

Backgrounds: Urinary Tract Dilation (UTD) classification has been designed to be a more objective grading system to evaluate antenatal and post-natal UTD. Due to unclear association between UTD classifications to specific anomalies such as vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR),... View Details

Keywords: Health Disorders; Health Testing and Trials; AI and Machine Learning; Health Industry

07 Oct 2024
Research & Ideas

Election 2024: Why Demographics Won't Predict the Next President

years—the more dubious the predictions become. Studying almost 70 years of voting records and results The team analyzed voting from the American National Election Study and demographic information from government sources going back to... View Details

Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald

2009
Article

Modeling Expert Opinions on Food Healthfulness: A Nutrition Metric

By: Jolie M. Martin, John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, Max H. Bazerman and Lisa Sutherland

Research over the last several decades indicates the failure of existing nutritional labels to substantially improve the healthiness of consumers' food and beverage choices. The difficulty for policy-makers is to encapsulate a wide body of scientific knowledge in a... View Details

Keywords: Judgments; Food; Nutrition; Labels; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods

30 May 2023
Research & Ideas

Can AI Predict Whether Shoppers Would Pick Crest or Colgate?

but large language models like generative pre-trained transformers (GPTs) may allow companies to rely on AI to uncover consumers’ tastes, according to new research from Harvard Business School and Microsoft. Ayelet Israeli, an associate... View Details

Keywords: by Kristen Senz

January 1986 (Revised April 1987)
Background Note

Models for Updating Demand Forecasts

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

18 Jun 2024
Research & Ideas

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

doctoral student at the University of Chicago. The ‘state’ of the price gap matters Economists generally use two main data models to detect inflation and predict the pace at which retailers raise prices:... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services; Banking

August 2023
Article

Explaining Machine Learning Models with Interactive Natural Language Conversations Using TalkToModel

By: Dylan Slack, Satyapriya Krishna, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Sameer Singh

Practitioners increasingly use machine learning (ML) models, yet models have become more complex and harder to understand. To understand complex models, researchers have proposed techniques to explain model predictions. However, practitioners struggle to use... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Technological Innovation; Technology Adoption

July 2023
Article

Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations

By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet

In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science

Purchase

1994
Article

Three-dimensional Finite Element Modeling of a Cervical Vertebra: An Investigation of Burst Fracture Mechanism

By: Kevin J. Bozic, J H Keyak, H B Skinner, H U Bueff and David Bradford

Finite element modeling was used to study the mechanical behavior of a cervical vertebra under axial compressive loading. A three-dimensional (3-D) finite element (FE) model of a mid-cervical vertebra using inhomogeneous material properties was generated from... View Details

Keywords: Performance Expectations; Strength and Weakness; Health; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry

15 Aug 2016
Research & Ideas

Black Swans and Big Trends Can Ruin Anyone's Internet Prediction

investments are once again declining. Reasoning that today’s tech entrepreneurs and investors might value a history lesson, I’ve published Speed Trap as an ebook, which is downloadable for free in PDF format, and available in the iBooks Store for free and in the Kindle... View Details

Keywords: by Thomas R. Eisenmann; Technology

07 Jul 2003
Research & Ideas

The Organizational Model for Open Source

three projects: Debian, a complete non-commercial distribution of Linux; the GNU Object Model Environment (GNOME), which is a graphical user interface for Linux-based operating systems; and Apache, a public domain open source Web server.... View Details

Keywords: by Mallory Stark

31 May 2023
Research & Ideas

With Predictive Analytics, Companies Can Tap the Ultimate Opportunity: Customers’ Routines

used that information to predict how often and when a customer may request a car as part of their routine. The model could drill into specific kinds of routines, too: The model... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Transportation

Article

Stereotype Content Model across Cultures: Universal Similarities and Some Differences

By: A.J.C. Cuddy, S.T. Fiske, V.S.Y. Kwan, P. Glick, S. Demoulin, J. Ph. Leyens and M.H. Bond

The stereotype content model (SCM; Fiske, Cuddy, Glick, & Xu, 2002) proposes potentially universal principles of societal stereotypes and their relation to social structure. Here, the SCM reveals theoretically grounded, cross-cultural, cross-groups' similarities and... View Details

Keywords: Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Relationships; Groups and Teams; Prejudice and Bias; Culture; Societal Protocols; East Asia; Europe

2009
Article

Social Structure Shapes Cultural Stereotypes and Emotions: A Causal Test of the Stereotype Content Model

By: P. Caprariello, A.J.C. Cuddy and S.T. Fiske

The stereotype content model (SCM) posits that social structure predicts specific cultural stereotypes and associated emotional prejudices (Fiske et al., 2002). No prior evidence at a societal level has manipulated both structural predictors and measured both... View Details

Keywords: Competency and Skills; Mathematical Methods; Emotions; Personal Characteristics; Prejudice and Bias; Status and Position; Culture; Competition

2013
Article

Nations' Income Inequality Predicts Ambivalence in Stereotype Content: How Societies Mind the Gap

By: Federica Durante, S. T. Fiske, Nicolas Kervyn and Amy J.C. Cuddy

Income inequality undermines societies: the more inequality, the more health problems, social tensions, and the lower social mobility, trust, and life expectancy. Given people's tendency to legitimate existing social arrangements, the Stereotype Content Model (SCM)... View Details

Keywords: Stereotypes; Cross-cultural/cross-border; Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Equality and Inequality; Income; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Power and Influence

27 Jul 2019
Op-Ed

Does Facebook's Business Model Threaten Our Elections?

business strategy, part of Facebook’s business model since at least 2010. That’s when Facebook opened up its Graph application programming interface (API) to advertisers, giving them access to user data including their social network... View Details

Keywords: by George Riedel

Article

Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Identifying and Exploring Firm Heterogeneous Effects

By: Juan Alcácer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk and Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida

Strategy aims at understanding the differential effects of firms’ actions on performance. However, standard regression models estimate only the average effects of these actions across firms. Our paper discusses how random coefficient models (RCMs) may generate new... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Research; Competitive Advantage; Competitive Strategy; Performance