Publications

2023
Working Paper

Change We Can’t Believe In: Distrust of Political Converts

By: Julian J. Zlatev, Amos Schurr and Nir Halevy

We propose and test three hypotheses regarding how people respond to political converts— individuals who switch their voting from one political party to another. Across two experiments, using behavioral and attitudinal measures of trust in two different countries, we... View Details

Keywords: Political Elections; Behavior; Attitudes; Trust

28 Jan 2015
Research & Ideas

Ground Game, Air Wars, and Other Marketing Lessons From Presidential Elections

2004 election when Republican George W. Bush emerged victorious. Chung says that had Democratic candidate John Kerry received more advertising from outside political groups, the View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

May 28, 2019
Other Article

How Russia Found a Disinformation Haven in America

By: Rawi Abdelal and Galit Goldstein

The Mueller Report established that “the Russians” undertook information operations campaigns to meddle in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Though this has been clear for a long time, Americans continue to discuss Russian information operations in the wrong way.... View Details

Keywords: Elections; Donald Trump; Political Elections; National Security; Information Technology; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Social Media; Russia; United States

2008
Working Paper

Traveling Agents: Political Change and Bureaucratic Turnover in India

By: Lakshmi Iyer and Anandi Mani

We develop a framework to empirically examine how politicians with electoral pressures control bureaucrats with career concerns as well as the consequences for bureaucrats' career investments. Unique micro-level data on Indian bureaucrats support our key predictions.... View Details

Keywords: Governance Controls; Political Elections; Management Skills; Managerial Roles; Personal Development and Career; Societal Protocols; India

04 Dec 2014
Working Paper Summaries

The Air War versus The Ground Game: An Analysis of Multi-Channel Marketing in US Presidential Elections

Keywords: by Doug J. Chung & Lingling Zhang

15 Oct 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Vote Choice Formation and the Minimal Effects of TV Debates: Evidence from 61 Elections in 9 OECD Countries

Keywords: by Caroline Le Pennec-Caldichoury and Vincent Pons

September 2024 (Revised October 2024)
Background Note

Brief Note on How America Votes and U.S. Election Structural Issues (2024)

By: Robert F. White

This note describes how American votes, and explores several structural issues to U.S. elections. View Details

Keywords: Political Elections; Voting; Public Administration Industry; United States

25 Sep 2017
Research & Ideas

Why Politics is Failing America, and What Business Can Do To Help

industrial complex that limits healthy competition in order to promote its continued growth and caters to the power and profit-driven demands of its best customers instead of the broader public interest. During the 2016 election cycle,... View Details

Keywords: by Christina Pazzanese, Harvard Gazette

2022
Working Paper

Electoral Turnovers

By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet

In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and... View Details

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement

2025
Working Paper

Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms

By: Silvia Pianta and Paula Rettl

Large-scale fires are becoming increasingly common due to climate change. While conventional wisdom suggests that firsthand experiences with natural disasters foster green coalitions by raising awareness of environmental degradation, we propose an alternative... View Details

Keywords: Climate Impact; Politics; Environmental Issues; Environmental Protection; Economic Analysis; Economic Behavior; Economic Geography; Economy; Economics; Climate Change; Environmental Management; Political Elections; Natural Disasters; Green Technology; Environmental Sustainability; Latin America; Brazil

July 2021
Article

Do Interactions with Candidates Increase Voter Support and Participation? Experimental Evidence from Italy

By: Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons

We test whether politicians can use direct contact to reconnect with citizens, increase turnout, and win votes. During the 2014 Italian municipal elections, we randomly assigned 26,000 voters to receive visits from city council candidates, from canvassers supporting... View Details

Keywords: Campaigns; Candidates; Elections; Experiment; Political Parties; Turnout; Voting Behavior; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; Interpersonal Communication; Italy

Find at Harvard

November 2, 2012
Editorial

Natural Disasters Hurt Incumbents

By: Shawn A. Cole, Andrew Healy and Eric Werker

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Natural Disasters; Political Elections

October 2016
Case

U.S. Presidential Campaign 2016: Marketing Communication Strategy

By: Robert J. Dolan

On October 18, 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump began the last three weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign by preparing for the next day's third and final presidential debate. Tuesday, November 8 was Election Day, but in... View Details

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Voting Behavior; Voting; Marketing Communications; Political Elections; United States

29 Apr 2010
Working Paper Summaries

The Great Leap Forward: The Political Economy of Education in Brazil, 1889-1930

Keywords: by André Martínez-Fritscher, Aldo Musacchio & Martina Viarengo; Education

March 2018
Teaching Note

Making Target the Target: Boycotts and Corporate Political Activity (A) and (B)

By: Nien-hê Hsieh and Victor Wu

Through the challenges facing Target, the case examines the ways in which corporations can become involved in political and legislative debates and processes, ranging from campaign contributions to lobbying. In 2016, Target CEO Brian Cornell must determine how to... View Details

June 2018 (Revised June 2018)
Case

Facebook Confronts a Crisis of Trust

By: William W. George and Amram Migdal

The case, “Facebook Confronts a Crisis of Trust,” starts with the crisis Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg is facing in March 2018 over Cambridge Analytica’s accessing data from 87 million Facebook accounts in order to influence the 2016 U.S. Presidential... View Details

28 Oct 2024
Op-Ed

Latino Voters Have Grown More Politically Divided. That’s Not Surprising.

US presidential elections as far back as 1952 to see if demographic trends can predict political ones. In each election, we calculated how each group of citizens of a certain age, race, or income voted. We... View Details

Keywords: by Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro

2013
Working Paper

Redrawing the Lines: Did Political Incumbents Influence Electoral Redistricting in the World's Largest Democracy?

By: Lakshmi Iyer and Maya Reddy

In 2008, the boundaries of national and state electoral constituencies in India were redrawn for the first time in three decades. We use detailed demographic and electoral data to construct measures of the extent of redistricting in a given constituency. We find the... View Details

Keywords: Political Elections; India

Article

Doing More with Less: the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkish Elections, and the Uncertain Future of Turkish Politics

By: Kristin Fabbe

The outcome of Turkey's June 2011 elections temporarily quelled—though by no means entirely put to rest—growing concern over the creeping autocratic tendencies of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). To ensure that democracy remains durable, the AKP must now... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Turkey