Policy Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research

January 2021 (Revised August 2021)
Case

ByteDance: TikTok and the Trials of Going Viral

In 2020, TikTok became the most valuable start-up ever. The short-form, video-sharing social media platform emerged as the crown jewel of the Chinese technology firm ByteDance, realizing 850 million monthly users and an estimated worth of $180 billion. However, a... View Details

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February 2022 (Revised April 2022)
Case

BUA Group

By: John D. Macomber, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Wale Lawal

BUA Group must decide between investments in cement, road building, power generation, or sugar. Private businesses are important to economic development in Africa. Students must assess the competitive nature of each of these industries, the magnitude of capital... View Details

Keywords: Investing; Transportation; Strategy; Project Finance; Agribusiness; Construction; Infrastructure; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Nigeria; Africa

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1977
Working Paper

Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance

By: Jerry R. Green

A two-period lifetime overlapping generations growth model is used to evaluate the possibility that social insurance can effectively offset economic risks associated with uncertainty about the rate of population growth. Crude measures of the seriousness of this type of... View Details

Keywords: Social Insurance; Econometric Models; Public Sector; Government Administration; Policy; Human Needs; Social Issues; Risk and Uncertainty

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October 2018 (Revised August 2019)
Case

Everybody Knows: Russia and the Election

By: Rawi Abdelal, Rafael Di Tella and Galit Goldstein

Following a contentious presidential race, Donald Trump’s 2016 election destabilized America’s status quo. Academics, journalists, politicians and the public at large examined why Trump had won. Many Americans, inside and outside the government, asserted that a... View Details

Keywords: Strategic Industry; Strategic Alliances (Business); Business And Government; Business And Public Policy; Business And Society; Media Businesses; Media Content; Media Slant; Media Regulation; Internet Of Everything; Government Policy; Politics; Political Campaigns; Political Strategy; Political Turmoil; Government; Government Regulation; Security; International Business; International Relations; National Security; Political Elections; News; Media; Internet and the Web; Rights; Problems and Challenges; Globalization; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Government Legislation; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking; Conflict and Resolution; Identity; Civil Society or Community; Culture; Public Opinion; Social Issues; War; Social Media; Public Administration Industry; United States; Russia

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December 2011
Article

Manager-Specific Effects on Earnings Guidance: An Analysis of Top Executive Turnovers

By: Francois Brochet, Lucile Faurel and Sarah McVay

We investigate how managers contribute to the provision of earnings guidance by examining the association between top executive turnovers and guidance. Although firm and industry characteristics are important determinants of guidance, we conclude that CEOs participate... View Details

Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Management Teams; Policy; Decisions; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Leadership

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October 2021 (Revised February 2022)
Case

Green Hydrogen in Chile

By: Tarun Khanna, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago and Mariana Cal

In 2020, the Chilean government wants to promote green hydrogen, a technology with high potential to help mitigate climate change. President Sebastián Piñera, aware of the country's advantages to produce green hydrogen competitively, asks Energy Minister Juan Carlos... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Decision Making; Alternative Energy; Renewable Energy; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology; Financial Instruments; Energy Policy; Government Administration; Strategy; Government and Politics; Social Issues; Energy Industry; Latin America; South America; Chile

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06 Sep 2007
Working Paper Summaries

The Excess Burden of Government Indecision

Keywords: by Francisco J. Gomes, Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Luis M. Viceira

Jerry R. Green

Jerry R. Green

David A. Wells Professor of Political Economy

John Leverett Professor in the University

Harvard University

Jerry Green is the John Leverett Professor in the University and the David A. Wells... View Details

Keywords: aerospace; education industry; insurance industry; professional services

2017
Working Paper

Self-Employment Dynamics and the Returns to Entrepreneurship

By: Eleanor W. Dillon and Christopher T. Stanton

Small business owners and others in self-employment have the option to transition to paid work. If there is initial uncertainty about entrepreneurial earnings, this option increases the expected lifetime value of self-employment relative to pay in a single year. This... View Details

Keywords: Self-employed; Small Business; Business Earnings; Entrepreneurship; Ownership; Compensation and Benefits

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22 Mar 2016
First Look

March 22, 2016

role of specific economic and political institutions in shaping the business environment and economic growth in emerging markets. It gives answers to the following questions: When will governments define and enforce property rights? When will the division of View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

30 Sep 2014
Working Paper Summaries

The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Financial Constraints, Exporters, and Firm Investment

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari & Fabio Kanczuk

29 Oct 2024
HBS Seminar

Lynn Wu, Wharton

The Contract Year Phenomenon in the Corner Office: An Analysis of Firm Behavior During CEO Contract Renewals

This paper investigates how executive employment contracts influence corporate financial policies during the final year of the contract term, using a new, hand-collected data set of CEO employment agreements. On the one hand, the impending... View Details

Research Summary

Research Overview

Jillian has an interest in understanding the effect of high worker autonomy and uncertainty on operational metrics. Her research attempts to empirically explore the relationship between efficiency, resource utilization, and quality in hospital settings.... View Details

24 Mar 2009
First Look

First Look: March 24, 2009

Paid transfers of IP addresses would better allocate resources to those who need them most, but unrestricted transfers might threaten the Internet's routing system. I suggest policies to facilitate an IP address "market" while... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

2014
Working Paper

The Contract Year Phenomenon in the Corner Office: An Analysis of Firm Behavior During CEO Contract Renewals

By: Ping Liu and Yuhai Xuan

This paper investigates how executive employment contracts influence corporate financial policies during the final year of the contract term, using a new, hand-collected data set of CEO employment agreements. On the one hand, the impending expiration of fixed-term... View Details

Keywords: Management Style; Contracts; Behavior; Employment

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Article

Hurry or Wait: The Pros and Cons of Going Fast or Slow on Climate Change

By: Eleanor Denny and Jurgen Weiss

Climate change risk will likely force the de-carbonization of our electricity sector and thus involve massive investments in long-lived assets using many new and emerging technologies. Since technological progress (independent or dependent on deployment) will likely... View Details

Keywords: Electricity Sector; Environmental Risks; Fat Tails; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Climate Change; Information Technology; Investment; Technological Innovation; Cost vs Benefits

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2012
Article

The Excess Burden of Government Indecision

By: Francisco J. Gomes, Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Luis M. Viceira

Governments are known for procrastinating when it comes to resolving painful policy problems. Whatever the political motives for waiting to decide, procrastination distorts economic decisions relative to what would arise with early policy resolution. In so doing, it... View Details

Keywords: Saving; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Retirement; Policy; Government and Politics

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Forthcoming
Article

The Imperfect Intermediation of Money-Like Assets

By: Jeremy C. Stein and Jonathan Wallen

We study supply-and-demand effects in the U.S. Treasury bill market by comparing the returns on T-bills to the administered policy rate on the Federal Reserve’s reverse repurchase (RRP) facility. In spite of the arguably more money-like properties of an investment in... View Details

Keywords: Debt Securities; Demand and Consumers; Price

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