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    • Faculty Publications  (175)

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    • All HBS Web  (1,130)
      • Faculty Publications  (175)

      Lay Decision TheoryRemove Lay Decision Theory →

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      • January 15, 2019
      • Article

      Is Your Company's Strategy Aligned with Your Ownership Model?

      By: Josh Baron
      The legacy of Vanguard founder John Bogle has brought attention to the transformative influence of ownership structures within the business world. Bogle's revolutionary insight into the limitations of active fund management led to the widespread adoption of index... View Details
      Keywords: Ownership Type; Business Strategy; Organizational Structure; Strength and Weakness; Competitive Advantage
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      Baron, Josh. "Is Your Company's Strategy Aligned with Your Ownership Model?" Harvard Business Review (website) (January 15, 2019).
      • 2019
      • Book

      The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power

      By: Shoshana Zuboff
      In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Profiling; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology; Power and Influence; Ethics; Society; Transformation
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      Zuboff, Shoshana. The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power. New York: PublicAffairs, 2019.
      • Article

      Optimality Bias in Moral Judgment

      By: Julian De Freitas and Samuel G.B. Johnson
      We often make decisions with incomplete knowledge of their consequences. Might people nonetheless expect others to make optimal choices, despite this ignorance? Here, we show that people are sensitive to moral optimality: that people hold moral agents accountable... View Details
      Keywords: Moral Judgment; Lay Decision Theory; Theory Of Mind; Causal Attribution; Moral Sensibility; Decision Making
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      De Freitas, Julian, and Samuel G.B. Johnson. "Optimality Bias in Moral Judgment." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 79 (November 2018): 149–163.
      • Article

      Raiffa Transformed the Field of Negotiation—and Me

      By: Max Bazerman
      Howard Raiffa was a role model, friend, and inspiration. He transformed the field of negotiation, and he transformed my career. This brief article provides a recollection of how Howard revolutionized the field of negotiation and how those insights are now affecting... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation; Decision Making; Analysis; Game Theory; Personal Development and Career
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      Bazerman, Max. "Raiffa Transformed the Field of Negotiation—and Me." Negotiation and Conflict Management Research 11, no. 3 (August 2018): 259–261.
      • Article

      The Effects of Media Slant on Firm Behavior

      By: Vishal P. Baloria and Jonas Heese
      The media can impose reputational costs on firms because of its important role as an information intermediary and its ability to negatively slant coverage. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment that holds constant the information event across firms, but varies the... View Details
      Keywords: Media Slant; Reputational Capital; Strategic Corporate Decisions; Media; News; Communication Strategy; Reputation
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      Baloria, Vishal P., and Jonas Heese. "The Effects of Media Slant on Firm Behavior." Journal of Financial Economics 129, no. 1 (July 2018): 184–202.
      • 2018
      • Chapter

      Transportation Cost and the Geography of Foreign Investment

      By: Laura Alfaro and Maggie Chen
      Falling transportation costs and rapid technological progress in recent decades have precipitated an explosion of cross-border flows in goods, services, investments, and ideas led by multinational firms. Extensive research has sought to understand the geographic... View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Cost; Transportation; Geographic Scope; Geographic Location
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Maggie Chen. "Transportation Cost and the Geography of Foreign Investment." In Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, edited by Bruce Blonigen and Wesley W. Wilson. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2018.
      • Article

      Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence

      By: Julian Zlatev, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim and Margaret A. Neale
      Current theories suggest that people understand how to exploit common biases to influence others. However, these predictions have received little empirical attention. We consider a widely studied bias with special policy relevance: the default effect, which is the... View Details
      Keywords: Social Influence; Default Effect; Nudges; Choice Architecture; Decision Making; Behavior
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      Zlatev, Julian, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim, and Margaret A. Neale. "Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 52 (December 26, 2017).
      • Article

      Howard Raiffa: The Art, Science, and Humanity of a Legendary Negotiation Analyst

      By: James K. Sebenius
      Rightly known as the “father of negotiation analysis,” Howard Raiffa was my thesis advisor, colleague, and friend for over 30 years. The bulk of this article develops an account of his intellectual trajectory from game theory to statistical decision theory to decision... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation Analysis; Bargaining; Howard Raiffa; Negotiation; Personal Development and Career
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      Sebenius, James K. "Howard Raiffa: The Art, Science, and Humanity of a Legendary Negotiation Analyst." Negotiation Journal 33, no. 4 (October 2017): 283–307.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      The Effects of Media Slant on Firm Behavior

      By: Vishal P. Baloria and Jonas Heese
      The media can impose reputational costs on firms because of its important role as an information intermediary and its ability to negatively slant coverage. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment that holds constant the information event across firms, but varies the... View Details
      Keywords: Media Slant; Reputational Capital; Strategic Corporate Decisions
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      Baloria, Vishal P., and Jonas Heese. "The Effects of Media Slant on Firm Behavior." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-015, August 2017.
      • August 2017
      • Article

      A Formal Theory of Strategy

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      What makes a decision strategic? When is strategy most important? This paper formally studies these questions, starting from a (functional) definition of strategy as “the smallest set of choices to optimally guide (or force) other choices.” The paper shows that this... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy Development; Strategy; Decisions
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "A Formal Theory of Strategy." Management Science 63, no. 8 (August 2017): 2616–2636.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Digital Agility: The Impact of Software Portfolio Architecture on IT System Evolution

      By: Alan MacCormack, Robert Lagerström, Martin Mocker and Carliss Y. Baldwin
      The modern industrial firm increasingly relies on software to support its competitive position. However, the uncertain and dynamic nature of today’s global marketplace dictates that this software be continually evolved and adapted to meet new business challenges. This... View Details
      Keywords: Information Systems; Software; Architecture; Modularity; Agility; Coupling; Applications and Software; Design; Decisions; Performance
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      MacCormack, Alan, Robert Lagerström, Martin Mocker, and Carliss Y. Baldwin. "Digital Agility: The Impact of Software Portfolio Architecture on IT System Evolution." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-105, May 2017. (Revised October 2017.)
      • May 2017
      • Article

      Experimental Evidence of Pooling Outcomes Under Information Asymmetry

      By: William Schmidt and Ryan W. Buell
      Operational decisions under information asymmetry can signal a firm's prospects to less-informed parties, such as investors, customers, competitors, and regulators. Consequently, managers in these settings often face a tradeoff between making an optimal decision and... View Details
      Keywords: Behavioral Decision Research; Information Asymmetry; Signaling; Decision Choices and Conditions; Alignment
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      Schmidt, William, and Ryan W. Buell. "Experimental Evidence of Pooling Outcomes Under Information Asymmetry." Management Science 63, no. 5 (May 2017): 1586–1605.
      • Article

      Deep Down My Enemy Is Good: Thinking about the True Self Reduces Intergroup Bias

      By: Julian De Freitas and Mina Cikara
      Intergroup bias—preference for one's in-group relative to out-groups—is one of the most robust phenomena in all of psychology. Here we investigate whether a positive bias that operates at the individual-level, belief in a good true self, may be leveraged to reduce... View Details
      Keywords: Intergroup Bias; True Self; Essentialism; Lay Theories
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      De Freitas, Julian, and Mina Cikara. "Deep Down My Enemy Is Good: Thinking about the True Self Reduces Intergroup Bias." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 74 (January 2018): 307–316.
      • 2017
      • Article

      Refugees Misdirected: How Information, Misinformation and Rumors Shape Refugees’ Access to Fundamental Rights

      By: Melissa Carlson, Laura Jakli and Katerina Linos
      The global refugee regime represents one of the few generous commitments governments offer to outsiders. Indeed, few persons fleeing armed conflict actually claim international protection upon first arriving in Europe, even though the benefits of legal protection are... View Details
      Keywords: Refugees; Knowledge Dissemination; Trust; Risk and Uncertainty; Rights; Europe
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      Carlson, Melissa, Laura Jakli, and Katerina Linos. "Refugees Misdirected: How Information, Misinformation and Rumors Shape Refugees’ Access to Fundamental Rights." Virginia Journal of International Law 57, no. 3 (2017): 539–574.
      • Article

      Experience Theory, or How Desserts Are Like Losses

      By: Jolie M. Martin, Martin Reimann and Michael I. Norton
      While many experiments have explored risk preferences for money, few have systematically assessed risk preferences for everyday experiences. We propose a conceptual model and provide convergent evidence from seven experiments that, in contrast to a typical “zero”... View Details
      Keywords: Experiences; Monetary Gambles; Risk Preferences; Experience Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Martin, Jolie M., Martin Reimann, and Michael I. Norton. "Experience Theory, or How Desserts Are Like Losses." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 145, no. 11 (November 2016): 1460–1472.
      • September–October 2016
      • Article

      Growing New Corporate Businesses: From Initiation to Graduation

      By: Sebastian Raisch and Michael Tushman
      Large companies initiate many new businesses, but few of them reach scale. The ambidexterity literature describes how companies create exploratory businesses, but says little about how they subsequently scale these businesses. The strategy literature uses real option... View Details
      Keywords: Ambidexterity; Comparative Case Study; Corporate Venturing; Exploration; Organization Design; Real Option Theory; Organizational Design; Corporate Strategy; Corporate Entrepreneurship
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      Raisch, Sebastian, and Michael Tushman. "Growing New Corporate Businesses: From Initiation to Graduation." Organization Science 27, no. 5 (September–October 2016).
      • 2016
      • Other Teaching and Training Material

      Organizational Behavior Reading: Decision Making

      By: Francesca Gino, Max Bazerman and Katherine Shonk
      This Reading argues that decision making is systematically flawed and introduces methods to improve decision-making effectiveness. The Essential Reading section covers the rational decision-making model and three important ideas that challenge it: Herbert Simon's... View Details
      Keywords: Game Theory; Decision Making
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      Gino, Francesca, Max Bazerman, and Katherine Shonk. "Organizational Behavior Reading: Decision Making." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Boston, MA: Harvard Business Publishing 8383, 2016. Electronic.
      • 2016
      • Article

      Recursive Mentalizing and Common Knowledge in the Bystander Effect

      By: Kyle A. Thomas, Julian De Freitas, Peter DiScioli and Steven Pinker
      The more potential helpers there are, the less likely any individual is to help. A traditional explanation for this bystander effect is that responsibility diffuses across the multiple bystanders, diluting the responsibility of each. We investigate an... View Details
      Keywords: Bystander Effect; Diffusion Of Responsibility; Volunteer's Dilemma; Common Knowledge; Theory Of Mind; Behavior; Theory
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      Thomas, Kyle A., Julian De Freitas, Peter DiScioli, and Steven Pinker. "Recursive Mentalizing and Common Knowledge in the Bystander Effect." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 145, no. 5 (2016): 621–629.
      • 2015
      • Chapter

      The Consumer Psychology of Online Privacy: Insights and Opportunities from Behavioral Decision Theory

      By: Leslie K. John
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      John, Leslie K. "The Consumer Psychology of Online Privacy: Insights and Opportunities from Behavioral Decision Theory." In The Cambridge Handbook of Consumer Psychology, edited by Michael I. Norton, Derek D. Rucker, and Cait Lamberton. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015.
      • Article

      Why A Behavioral Theory of Labor Negotiations Remains a Triumph at Fifty but the Labels 'Distributive' and 'Integrative' Should Be Retired

      By: James K. Sebenius
      Richard Walton and Robert McKersie's closeness to practice, disciplinary rigor, and successful search for powerful generalizations help explain the lasting impact of the Behavioral Theory of Labor Relations. Ironically, the names they chose for the fundamental... View Details
      Keywords: Bargaining; Integrative Bargaining; Distributive Bargaining; Negotiation; Labor Unions
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      Sebenius, James K. "Why A Behavioral Theory of Labor Negotiations Remains a Triumph at Fifty but the Labels 'Distributive' and 'Integrative' Should Be Retired." Negotiation Journal 31, no. 4 (October 2015): 335–347.
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