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    • All HBS Web  (1,127)
      • Faculty Publications  (188)

      Lay Decision TheoryRemove Lay Decision Theory →

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      • February 2020 (Revised January 2022)
      • Case

      Getting Brexit Done

      By: Alberto Cavallo
      In the early hours of Friday, December 13, 2019, a triumphant Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister, stood in front of his supporters and declared, “We did it – we pulled it off, didn’t we? We broke the deadlock, [. . .] we smashed the roadblock. [. . .] This election... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Integration; Brexit; Economics; Trade; Political Elections; Government Administration; Policy; Negotiation; Globalized Economies and Regions; Problems and Challenges; European Union; Europe
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      Cavallo, Alberto. "Getting Brexit Done." Harvard Business School Case 720-023, February 2020. (Revised January 2022.)
      • November 2019
      • Supplement

      Hapag-Lloyd AG: Complying with IMO 2020

      By: Benjamin C. Esty, Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej and Emer Moloney
      A new environmental regulation known as IMO 2020 was creating what one industry analyst called “the biggest shakeup for the oil and shipping industries in decades.” According to the new regulation, all ocean-going ships would have to limit their sulfur emissions by... View Details
      Keywords: Valuation; Ship Transportation; Strategic Planning; Game Theory; Pollutants; Supply Chain; Corporate Accountability; Capital Budgeting; Environmental Sustainability; Shipping Industry; Transportation Industry; Germany
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      Esty, Benjamin C., Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej, and Emer Moloney. "Hapag-Lloyd AG: Complying with IMO 2020." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 220-713, November 2019.
      • November 2019
      • Case

      Hapag-Lloyd AG: Complying with IMO 2020

      By: Benjamin C. Esty, Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej and Emer Moloney
      A new environmental regulation known as IMO 2020 was creating what one industry analyst called “the biggest shakeup for the oil and shipping industries in decades.” According to the new regulation, all ocean-going ships would have to limit their sulfur emissions by... View Details
      Keywords: Valuation; Ship Transportation; Strategic Planning; Game Theory; Pollutants; Supply Chain; Corporate Accountability; Capital Budgeting; Environmental Sustainability; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governance Compliance; Shipping Industry; Transportation Industry; Germany
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      Esty, Benjamin C., Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej, and Emer Moloney. "Hapag-Lloyd AG: Complying with IMO 2020." Harvard Business School Case 220-003, November 2019.
      • August 2019
      • Teaching Note

      Back to the Roots

      By: Elizabeth A. Keenan and Leslie K. John
      Email mking@hbs.edu for a courtesy copy.

      This Teaching Note explains the theory of the case and teaching plan for the case: Back to the Roots HBS case No. 518-073. Back to the Roots (BTTR) is a start-up with a... View Details
      Keywords: Organic Food; Startup; Crowdfunding; Sustainability; Transparency; Entrepreneurship; Product Development; Product Marketing; Growth and Development Strategy; Decision Making; Food; Food and Beverage Industry
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      Keenan, Elizabeth A., and Leslie K. John. "Back to the Roots." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 520-028, August 2019. (Email mking@hbs.edu for a courtesy copy.)
      • 2019
      • Article

      Can Big Data Improve Firm Decision Quality? The Role of Data Quality and Data Diagnosticity

      By: Maryam Ghasemaghaei and Goran Calic
      Anecdotal evidence suggests that, despite the large variety of data, the huge volume of generated data, and the fast velocity of obtaining data (i.e., big data), quality of big data is far from perfect. Therefore, many firms defer collecting and integrating big data as... View Details
      Keywords: Big Data; Analytics and Data Science; Decisions; Quality
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      Ghasemaghaei, Maryam, and Goran Calic. "Can Big Data Improve Firm Decision Quality? The Role of Data Quality and Data Diagnosticity." Decision Support Systems 120 (2019): 38–49.
      • January 15, 2019
      • Article

      Is Your Company's Strategy Aligned with Your Ownership Model?

      By: Josh Baron
      The legacy of Vanguard founder John Bogle has brought attention to the transformative influence of ownership structures within the business world. Bogle's revolutionary insight into the limitations of active fund management led to the widespread adoption of index... View Details
      Keywords: Ownership Type; Business Strategy; Organizational Structure; Strength and Weakness; Competitive Advantage
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      Baron, Josh. "Is Your Company's Strategy Aligned with Your Ownership Model?" Harvard Business Review (website) (January 15, 2019).
      • 2019
      • Book

      The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power

      By: Shoshana Zuboff
      In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Profiling; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology; Power and Influence; Ethics; Society; Transformation
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      Zuboff, Shoshana. The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power. New York: PublicAffairs, 2019.
      • Article

      Optimality Bias in Moral Judgment

      By: Julian De Freitas and Samuel G.B. Johnson
      We often make decisions with incomplete knowledge of their consequences. Might people nonetheless expect others to make optimal choices, despite this ignorance? Here, we show that people are sensitive to moral optimality: that people hold moral agents accountable... View Details
      Keywords: Moral Judgment; Lay Decision Theory; Theory Of Mind; Causal Attribution; Moral Sensibility; Decision Making
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      De Freitas, Julian, and Samuel G.B. Johnson. "Optimality Bias in Moral Judgment." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 79 (November 2018): 149–163.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Machine Learning for Pattern Discovery in Management Research

      By: Prithwiraj Choudhury
      Supervised machine learning (ML) methods are a powerful toolkit for discovering robust patterns in quantitative data. The patterns identified by ML could be used as an observation for further inductive or abductive research, but should not be treated as the result of a... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Theory Building; Induction; Decision Trees; Random Forests; K-nearest Neighbors; Neural Network; P-hacking; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Ryan Allen, and Michael G. Endres. "Machine Learning for Pattern Discovery in Management Research." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-032, September 2018. (Revised June 2020.)
      • Article

      Raiffa Transformed the Field of Negotiation—and Me

      By: Max Bazerman
      Howard Raiffa was a role model, friend, and inspiration. He transformed the field of negotiation, and he transformed my career. This brief article provides a recollection of how Howard revolutionized the field of negotiation and how those insights are now affecting... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation; Decision Making; Analysis; Game Theory; Personal Development and Career
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      Bazerman, Max. "Raiffa Transformed the Field of Negotiation—and Me." Negotiation and Conflict Management Research 11, no. 3 (August 2018): 259–261.
      • Article

      The Effects of Media Slant on Firm Behavior

      By: Vishal P. Baloria and Jonas Heese
      The media can impose reputational costs on firms because of its important role as an information intermediary and its ability to negatively slant coverage. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment that holds constant the information event across firms, but varies the... View Details
      Keywords: Media Slant; Reputational Capital; Strategic Corporate Decisions; Media; News; Communication Strategy; Reputation
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      Baloria, Vishal P., and Jonas Heese. "The Effects of Media Slant on Firm Behavior." Journal of Financial Economics 129, no. 1 (July 2018): 184–202.
      • March 2018
      • Teaching Note

      ISRO: Explore Space or Exploit CubeSats?

      By: Prithwiraj Choudhury
      ISRO, India’s space agency, established to address domestic challenges with space technology, is one of the six largest space agencies in the world. Through its 59 missions, ISRO has launched numerous satellites for communication, disaster management, navigation,... View Details
      Keywords: Strategic Planning; Decision Choices and Conditions; Operations; Management; Aerospace Industry; India
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj. "ISRO: Explore Space or Exploit CubeSats?" Harvard Business School Teaching Note 618-049, March 2018.
      • February 2018
      • Article

      Maintaining Beliefs in the Face of Negative News: The Moderating Role of Experience

      By: Bradley R. Staats, Diwas S. KC and F. Gino
      Many models in operations management involve dynamic decision making that assumes optimal updating in response to information revelation. However, behavioral theory suggests that rather than updating their beliefs, individuals may persevere in their prior beliefs. In... View Details
      Keywords: Information; Announcements; Service Operations; Decision Making; Medical Specialties; Experience and Expertise; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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      Staats, Bradley R., Diwas S. KC, and F. Gino. "Maintaining Beliefs in the Face of Negative News: The Moderating Role of Experience." Management Science 64, no. 2 (February 2018): 804–824.
      • 2018
      • Chapter

      Transportation Cost and the Geography of Foreign Investment

      By: Laura Alfaro and Maggie Chen
      Falling transportation costs and rapid technological progress in recent decades have precipitated an explosion of cross-border flows in goods, services, investments, and ideas led by multinational firms. Extensive research has sought to understand the geographic... View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Cost; Transportation; Geographic Scope; Geographic Location
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Maggie Chen. "Transportation Cost and the Geography of Foreign Investment." In Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, edited by Bruce Blonigen and Wesley W. Wilson. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2018.
      • Article

      Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence

      By: Julian Zlatev, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim and Margaret A. Neale
      Current theories suggest that people understand how to exploit common biases to influence others. However, these predictions have received little empirical attention. We consider a widely studied bias with special policy relevance: the default effect, which is the... View Details
      Keywords: Social Influence; Default Effect; Nudges; Choice Architecture; Decision Making; Behavior
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      Zlatev, Julian, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim, and Margaret A. Neale. "Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 52 (December 26, 2017).
      • Article

      Howard Raiffa: The Art, Science, and Humanity of a Legendary Negotiation Analyst

      By: James K. Sebenius
      Rightly known as the “father of negotiation analysis,” Howard Raiffa was my thesis advisor, colleague, and friend for over 30 years. The bulk of this article develops an account of his intellectual trajectory from game theory to statistical decision theory to decision... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation Analysis; Bargaining; Howard Raiffa; Negotiation; Personal Development and Career
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      Sebenius, James K. "Howard Raiffa: The Art, Science, and Humanity of a Legendary Negotiation Analyst." Negotiation Journal 33, no. 4 (October 2017): 283–307.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      The Effects of Media Slant on Firm Behavior

      By: Vishal P. Baloria and Jonas Heese
      The media can impose reputational costs on firms because of its important role as an information intermediary and its ability to negatively slant coverage. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment that holds constant the information event across firms, but varies the... View Details
      Keywords: Media Slant; Reputational Capital; Strategic Corporate Decisions
      Citation
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      Baloria, Vishal P., and Jonas Heese. "The Effects of Media Slant on Firm Behavior." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-015, August 2017.
      • August 2017
      • Article

      A Formal Theory of Strategy

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      What makes a decision strategic? When is strategy most important? This paper formally studies these questions, starting from a (functional) definition of strategy as “the smallest set of choices to optimally guide (or force) other choices.” The paper shows that this... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy Development; Strategy; Decisions
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "A Formal Theory of Strategy." Management Science 63, no. 8 (August 2017): 2616–2636.
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Digital Agility: The Impact of Software Portfolio Architecture on IT System Evolution

      By: Alan MacCormack, Robert Lagerström, Martin Mocker and Carliss Y. Baldwin
      The modern industrial firm increasingly relies on software to support its competitive position. However, the uncertain and dynamic nature of today’s global marketplace dictates that this software be continually evolved and adapted to meet new business challenges. This... View Details
      Keywords: Information Systems; Software; Architecture; Modularity; Agility; Coupling; Applications and Software; Design; Decisions; Performance
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      MacCormack, Alan, Robert Lagerström, Martin Mocker, and Carliss Y. Baldwin. "Digital Agility: The Impact of Software Portfolio Architecture on IT System Evolution." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-105, May 2017. (Revised October 2017.)
      • May 2017
      • Article

      Experimental Evidence of Pooling Outcomes Under Information Asymmetry

      By: William Schmidt and Ryan W. Buell
      Operational decisions under information asymmetry can signal a firm's prospects to less-informed parties, such as investors, customers, competitors, and regulators. Consequently, managers in these settings often face a tradeoff between making an optimal decision and... View Details
      Keywords: Behavioral Decision Research; Information Asymmetry; Signaling; Decision Choices and Conditions; Alignment
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      Schmidt, William, and Ryan W. Buell. "Experimental Evidence of Pooling Outcomes Under Information Asymmetry." Management Science 63, no. 5 (May 2017): 1586–1605.
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