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  • May 2011
  • Article

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric J. Van den Steen
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias
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Van den Steen, Eric J. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 884–896.
  • May 2017 (Revised May 2019)
  • Supplement

Intuit: QuickBooks (B)

By: David Yoffie and Nicole Tempest Keller
This short case updates the earlier Intuit case on transitioning from a product company into a platform company. In addition to providing information on the recent successes and challenges of the business, it also explores a new challenge of building a platform with a... View Details
Keywords: Platform; Strategic Transition; Strategy; Digital Platforms; Transition
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Yoffie, David, and Nicole Tempest Keller. "Intuit: QuickBooks (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 717-513, May 2017. (Revised May 2019.)
  • 2007
  • Book

A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics: What Managers, Executives, and Students Need to Know

By: David A. Moss
Now more than ever before, executives and managers need to understand their larger economic context. In The Concise Guide to Macroeconomics, David Moss leverages his many years of teaching experience at Harvard Business School to lay out important macroeconomic... View Details
Keywords: Macroeconomics; Money; Investment; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
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Moss, David A. A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics: What Managers, Executives, and Students Need to Know. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2007.
  • July 2023
  • Article

Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations

By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science
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Beutler, Dawson, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner, and TzuHwan Seet. "Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations." Journal of Portfolio Management 49, no. 7 (July 2023): 144–158.
  • 14 Jun 2007
  • Working Paper Summaries

Evolution Analysis of Large-Scale Software Systems Using Design Structure Matrices and Design Rule Theory

Keywords: by Matthew J. LaMantia, Yuanfang Cai, Alan D. MacCormack & John Rusnak; Video Game; Web Services
  • 22 Jun 2007
  • Working Paper Summaries

Proprietary vs. Open Two-Sided Platforms and Social Efficiency

Keywords: by Andrei Hagiu; Video Game; Web Services
  • 2021
  • Working Paper

First Law of Motion: Influencer Video Advertising on TikTok

By: Jeremy Yang, Juanjuan Zhang and Yuhan Zhang
This paper engineers an intuitive feature that is predictive of the causal effect of influencer video advertising on product sales. We propose the concept of m-score, a summary statistic that captures the extent to which a product is advertised in the most engaging... View Details
Keywords: Influencer Advertising; Video Advertising; Computer Vision; Machine Learning; Advertising; Online Technology
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Yang, Jeremy, Juanjuan Zhang, and Yuhan Zhang. "First Law of Motion: Influencer Video Advertising on TikTok." Working Paper, March 2021.
  • October 2020
  • Article

Collusion in Markets with Syndication

By: John William Hatfield, Scott Duke Kominers, Richard Lowery and Jordan M. Barry
Markets for IPOs and debt issuances are syndicated, in the sense that a bidder who wins a contract may invite losing bidders to join a syndicate that together fulfills the contract. We show that in markets with syndication, standard intuitions from industrial... View Details
Keywords: Collusion; Antitrust; IPO Underwriting; Syndication; "Repeated Games"; Markets; Game Theory
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Hatfield, John William, Scott Duke Kominers, Richard Lowery, and Jordan M. Barry. "Collusion in Markets with Syndication." Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 10 (October 2020).
  • 2016
  • Working Paper

Collusion in Markets with Syndication

By: John William Hatfield, Scott Kominers and Richard Lowery
Markets for IPOs and debt issuances are syndicated, in the sense that a bidder who wins a contract may invite losing bidders to join a syndicate that together fulfills the contract. We show that in markets with syndication, standard intuitions from... View Details
Keywords: Collusion; Antitrust; IPO Underwriting; Syndication; "Repeated Games"
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Hatfield, John William, Scott Kominers, and Richard Lowery. "Collusion in Markets with Syndication." Working Paper, November 2016.
  • November 2024
  • Case

AlphaGo (A): Birth of a New Intelligence

By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
This case, the first of a three-part series, traces DeepMind's evolution from its 2010 founding through its acquisition by Google in 2014. Often referred to as the "Apollo project" of artificial intelligence, DeepMind used games as a testing ground to develop AI... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Technology Adoption; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Technological Innovation; Creativity; Technology Industry; South Korea; China; United States
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Ghosh, Shikhar, and Shweta Bagai. "AlphaGo (A): Birth of a New Intelligence." Harvard Business School Case 825-073, November 2024.
  • Article

De Gustibus non est Taxandum: Heterogeneity in Preferences and Optimal Redistribution

By: Benjamin B Lockwood and Matthew Weinzierl
The prominent but unproven intuition that preference heterogeneity reduces redistribution in a standard optimal tax model is shown to hold under the plausible condition that the distribution of preferences for consumption relative to leisure rises, in terms of... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Income; Decision Choices and Conditions; Consumer Behavior; Taxation; Microeconomics; Macroeconomics
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Lockwood, Benjamin B., and Matthew Weinzierl. "De Gustibus non est Taxandum: Heterogeneity in Preferences and Optimal Redistribution." Journal of Public Economics 124 (April 2015): 74–80. (Also NBER Working Paper Series, No. 17784, September 2014 and Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-063, January 2012.)
  • 2010
  • Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
  • October 2018 (Revised May 2019)
  • Teaching Note

Intuit: Turbo Tax PersonalPro - A Tale of Two Entrepreneurs

By: Joseph Fuller, Shikhar Ghosh and Monica Baraldi
Teaching Note for HBS No. 816-048. The case tells the story of a product manager within Intuit who develops an idea for a new product that spans two of the company's existing business units—professional tax software, sold to accountants, and the consumer focused... View Details
Keywords: Business Units; Business or Company Management; Applications and Software; Accounting; Product Development; Financial Services Industry
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Fuller, Joseph, Shikhar Ghosh, and Monica Baraldi. "Intuit: Turbo Tax PersonalPro - A Tale of Two Entrepreneurs." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 319-045, October 2018. (Revised May 2019.)
  • September 2015 (Revised March 2016)
  • Case

Intuit: Turbo Tax PersonalPro - A Tale of Two Entrepreneurs

By: Shikhar Ghosh, Joseph Fuller and Michael Roberts
The case provides a vehicle for teaching about both corporate intrapreneurship and the use of lean startup methods. It tells the story of a product manager within Intuit who develops an idea for a new product that spans two of the company's existing business... View Details
Keywords: Business Units; Business or Company Management; Applications and Software; Accounting; Product Development; Financial Services Industry
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Ghosh, Shikhar, Joseph Fuller, and Michael Roberts. "Intuit: Turbo Tax PersonalPro - A Tale of Two Entrepreneurs." Harvard Business School Case 816-048, September 2015. (Revised March 2016.)
  • Research Summary

Risk Measurement

By: David E. Bell
David E. Bell has completed research on the measurement of financial risk. The concepts of risk and return are widely used, at least informally, in the appraisal of financial opportunities. Return is typically measured by the expected value of a project, risk by the... View Details
  • 2014
  • Working Paper

De Gustibus non est Taxandum: Heterogeneity in Preferences and Optimal Redistribution

By: Benjamin B Lockwood and Matthew Weinzierl
The prominent but unproven intuition that preference heterogeneity reduces redistribution in a standard optimal tax model is shown to hold under the plausible condition that the distribution of preferences for consumption relative to leisure rises, in terms of... View Details
Keywords: Spending; Policy; Taxation; Theory; United States
Citation
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Lockwood, Benjamin B., and Matthew Weinzierl. "De Gustibus non est Taxandum: Heterogeneity in Preferences and Optimal Redistribution." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-063, January 2012. (Updated September 2014. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 17784. Published in Journal of Public Economics.)
  • May–June 2023
  • Article

Analytics for Marketers: When to Rely on Algorithms and When to Trust Your Gut

By: Fabrizio Fantini and Das Narayandas
Advanced analytics can help companies solve a host of management problems, including those related to marketing, sales, and supply-chain operations, which can lead to a sustainable competitive advantage. But as more data becomes available and advanced analytics are... View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Decision Making
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Fantini, Fabrizio, and Das Narayandas. "Analytics for Marketers: When to Rely on Algorithms and When to Trust Your Gut." Harvard Business Review 101, no. 3 (May–June 2023): 82–91.
  • Article

The Career Effects of Scandal: Evidence from Scientific Retractions

By: Pierre Azoulay, Alessandro Bonatti and Joshua Lev Krieger
We investigate how the scientific community's perception of a scientist's prior work changes when one of his articles is retracted. Relative to non-retracted control authors, faculty members who experience a retraction see the citation rate to their earlier,... View Details
Keywords: Reputation; Perception; Status and Position; Outcome or Result
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Azoulay, Pierre, Alessandro Bonatti, and Joshua Lev Krieger. "The Career Effects of Scandal: Evidence from Scientific Retractions." Research Policy 46, no. 9 (November 2017).
  • October 2012
  • Article

The Preference for Potential

By: Zakary L. Tormala, Jayson Jia and Michael I. Norton
When people seek to impress others, they often do so by highlighting individual achievements. Despite the intuitive appeal of this strategy, we demonstrate that people often prefer potential rather than achievement when evaluating others. Indeed, compared with... View Details
Keywords: Preferences; Persuasion; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Performance Expectations; Attitudes
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Tormala, Zakary L., Jayson Jia, and Michael I. Norton. "The Preference for Potential." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 103, no. 4 (October 2012): 567–583.
  • 2008
  • Chapter

Public Action for Public Goods: Theory and Evidence

By: Abhijit Banerjee, Lakshmi Iyer and Rohini Somanathan
This chapter focuses on the relationship between public action and access to public goods. It begins by developing a simple model of collective action which is intended to capture the various mechanisms that are discussed in the theoretical literature on collective... View Details
Keywords: Policy; Quality; Groups and Teams; Human Needs; Poverty; Welfare or Wellbeing; Public Administration Industry
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Banerjee, Abhijit, Lakshmi Iyer, and Rohini Somanathan. "Public Action for Public Goods: Theory and Evidence." In Handbook of Development Economics. Vol. 4, edited by T. Paul Schultz and John Strauss. Elsevier Science, 2008.
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