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May 2011
Article

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric J. Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias

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May 2017 (Revised May 2019)
Supplement

Intuit: QuickBooks (B)

By: David Yoffie and Nicole Tempest Keller

This short case updates the earlier Intuit case on transitioning from a product company into a platform company. In addition to providing information on the recent successes and challenges of the business, it also explores a new challenge of building a platform with a... View Details

Keywords: Platform; Strategic Transition; Strategy; Digital Platforms; Transition

2007
Book

A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics: What Managers, Executives, and Students Need to Know

By: David A. Moss

Now more than ever before, executives and managers need to understand their larger economic context. In The Concise Guide to Macroeconomics, David Moss leverages his many years of teaching experience at Harvard Business School to lay out important macroeconomic... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Money; Investment; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques

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July 2023
Article

Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations

By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet

In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science

14 Jun 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Evolution Analysis of Large-Scale Software Systems Using Design Structure Matrices and Design Rule Theory

Keywords: by Matthew J. LaMantia, Yuanfang Cai, Alan D. MacCormack & John Rusnak; Video Game; Web Services

22 Jun 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Proprietary vs. Open Two-Sided Platforms and Social Efficiency

Keywords: by Andrei Hagiu; Video Game; Web Services

2021
Working Paper

First Law of Motion: Influencer Video Advertising on TikTok

By: Jeremy Yang, Juanjuan Zhang and Yuhan Zhang

This paper engineers an intuitive feature that is predictive of the causal effect of influencer video advertising on product sales. We propose the concept of m-score, a summary statistic that captures the extent to which a product is advertised in the most engaging... View Details

Keywords: Influencer Advertising; Video Advertising; Computer Vision; Machine Learning; Advertising; Online Technology

October 2020
Article

Collusion in Markets with Syndication

By: John William Hatfield, Scott Duke Kominers, Richard Lowery and Jordan M. Barry

Markets for IPOs and debt issuances are syndicated, in the sense that a bidder who wins a contract may invite losing bidders to join a syndicate that together fulfills the contract. We show that in markets with syndication, standard intuitions from industrial... View Details

Keywords: Collusion; Antitrust; IPO Underwriting; Syndication; ＂Repeated Games＂; Markets; Game Theory

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2016
Working Paper

Collusion in Markets with Syndication

By: John William Hatfield, Scott Kominers and Richard Lowery

Markets for IPOs and debt issuances are syndicated, in the sense that a bidder who wins a contract may invite losing bidders to join a syndicate that together fulfills the contract. We show that in markets with syndication, standard intuitions from... View Details

Keywords: Collusion; Antitrust; IPO Underwriting; Syndication; ＂Repeated Games＂

November 2024
Case

AlphaGo (A): Birth of a New Intelligence

By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai

This case, the first of a three-part series, traces DeepMind's evolution from its 2010 founding through its acquisition by Google in 2014. Often referred to as the "Apollo project" of artificial intelligence, DeepMind used games as a testing ground to develop AI... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Technology Adoption; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Technological Innovation; Creativity; Technology Industry; South Korea; China; United States

Article

De Gustibus non est Taxandum: Heterogeneity in Preferences and Optimal Redistribution

By: Benjamin B Lockwood and Matthew Weinzierl

The prominent but unproven intuition that preference heterogeneity reduces redistribution in a standard optimal tax model is shown to hold under the plausible condition that the distribution of preferences for consumption relative to leisure rises, in terms of... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Income; Decision Choices and Conditions; Consumer Behavior; Taxation; Microeconomics; Macroeconomics

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2010
Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

October 2018 (Revised May 2019)
Teaching Note

Intuit: Turbo Tax PersonalPro - A Tale of Two Entrepreneurs

By: Joseph Fuller, Shikhar Ghosh and Monica Baraldi

Teaching Note for HBS No. 816-048. The case tells the story of a product manager within Intuit who develops an idea for a new product that spans two of the company's existing business units—professional tax software, sold to accountants, and the consumer focused... View Details

Keywords: Business Units; Business or Company Management; Applications and Software; Accounting; Product Development; Financial Services Industry

September 2015 (Revised March 2016)
Case

Intuit: Turbo Tax PersonalPro - A Tale of Two Entrepreneurs

By: Shikhar Ghosh, Joseph Fuller and Michael Roberts

The case provides a vehicle for teaching about both corporate intrapreneurship and the use of lean startup methods. It tells the story of a product manager within Intuit who develops an idea for a new product that spans two of the company's existing business... View Details

Keywords: Business Units; Business or Company Management; Applications and Software; Accounting; Product Development; Financial Services Industry

Research Summary

Risk Measurement

By: David E. Bell

David E. Bell has completed research on the measurement of financial risk. The concepts of risk and return are widely used, at least informally, in the appraisal of financial opportunities. Return is typically measured by the expected value of a project, risk by the... View Details

2014
Working Paper

De Gustibus non est Taxandum: Heterogeneity in Preferences and Optimal Redistribution

By: Benjamin B Lockwood and Matthew Weinzierl

The prominent but unproven intuition that preference heterogeneity reduces redistribution in a standard optimal tax model is shown to hold under the plausible condition that the distribution of preferences for consumption relative to leisure rises, in terms of... View Details

Keywords: Spending; Policy; Taxation; Theory; United States

May–June 2023
Article

Analytics for Marketers: When to Rely on Algorithms and When to Trust Your Gut

By: Fabrizio Fantini and Das Narayandas

Advanced analytics can help companies solve a host of management problems, including those related to marketing, sales, and supply-chain operations, which can lead to a sustainable competitive advantage. But as more data becomes available and advanced analytics are... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Decision Making

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Article

The Career Effects of Scandal: Evidence from Scientific Retractions

By: Pierre Azoulay, Alessandro Bonatti and Joshua Lev Krieger

We investigate how the scientific community's perception of a scientist's prior work changes when one of his articles is retracted. Relative to non-retracted control authors, faculty members who experience a retraction see the citation rate to their earlier,... View Details

Keywords: Reputation; Perception; Status and Position; Outcome or Result

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October 2012
Article

The Preference for Potential

By: Zakary L. Tormala, Jayson Jia and Michael I. Norton

When people seek to impress others, they often do so by highlighting individual achievements. Despite the intuitive appeal of this strategy, we demonstrate that people often prefer potential rather than achievement when evaluating others. Indeed, compared with... View Details

Keywords: Preferences; Persuasion; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Performance Expectations; Attitudes

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2008
Chapter

Public Action for Public Goods: Theory and Evidence

By: Abhijit Banerjee, Lakshmi Iyer and Rohini Somanathan

This chapter focuses on the relationship between public action and access to public goods. It begins by developing a simple model of collective action which is intended to capture the various mechanisms that are discussed in the theoretical literature on collective... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Quality; Groups and Teams; Human Needs; Poverty; Welfare or Wellbeing; Public Administration Industry

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