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      • Faculty Publications  (61)

      International MacroeconomicsRemove International Macroeconomics →

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      • August 2002 (Revised December 2003)
      • Case

      Italy: A New Commitment to Growth

      By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Rebecca Evans
      Examines Italy's efforts to comply with the Maastricht Treaty and become integrated with Europe in the European Union. By 2002, Italy has achieved macroeconomic stability, but slow growth threatens the country's future competitiveness. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi... View Details
      Keywords: Macroeconomics; Economic Growth; Competitive Strategy; Integration; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Government and Politics; Globalized Economies and Regions; International Relations; Alliances; Italy; European Union
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      Vietor, Richard H.K., and Rebecca Evans. "Italy: A New Commitment to Growth." Harvard Business School Case 703-007, August 2002. (Revised December 2003.)
      • March 2001 (Revised February 2004)
      • Case

      Power to the States: "Fiscal Wars" for FDI in Brazil

      By: Laura Alfaro, Yasheng Huang and Marios S. Kalochoritis
      On January 6, 1999, Itamar Franco, the governor of the state of Minas Gerais, the second-largest state in Brazil, declared a 90-day moratorium on its debt payment to the federal government. The announcement triggered a run on the Brazilian currency, the Real, and... View Details
      Keywords: International Relations; Investment; Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Brazil
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      Alfaro, Laura, Yasheng Huang, and Marios S. Kalochoritis. Power to the States: "Fiscal Wars" for FDI in Brazil. Harvard Business School Case 701-079, March 2001. (Revised February 2004.)
      • May 1999 (Revised December 2003)
      • Case

      European Monetary Union

      By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Sabina M. Ciminero
      On January 1, 1999, 11 European countries unified their currencies--48 years after their first integrative efforts. This marks a huge development in the structure of Europe and the world's economy. This case examines the integrative process, the Single Europe Act and... View Details
      Keywords: Money; Currency; Globalized Economies and Regions; Markets; International Relations; Alliances; System; Integration; Macroeconomics; Business and Government Relations; European Union
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      Vietor, Richard H.K., and Sabina M. Ciminero. "European Monetary Union." Harvard Business School Case 799-131, May 1999. (Revised December 2003.)
      • 1992
      • Chapter

      Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market." In International Business Reader, edited by D. Duta. London: Oxford University Press, 1992. (Revised from IMF Working Paper No. 90/43 and NBER Working Paper No. 3470, October 1990.)
      • 1992
      • Chapter

      The EMS, the EMU and the Transition to a Common Currency

      By: K. A. Froot and K. Rogoff
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Policy
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      Froot, K. A., and K. Rogoff. "The EMS, the EMU and the Transition to a Common Currency." In Macroeconomics Annual 1991, edited by O. Blanchard and S. Fischer, 269–327. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1992. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 3684, January 1992.)
      • Article

      Exchange-rate Dynamics under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach

      By: K. A. Froot and M. Obstfeld
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
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      Froot, K. A., and M. Obstfeld. "Exchange-rate Dynamics under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach." Journal of International Economics 31, nos. 3-4 (November 1991): 203–230. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2835, February 1989.)
      • Article

      Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions

      By: K. A. Froot and M. Obstfeld
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
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      Froot, K. A., and M. Obstfeld. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions." Econometrica 59, no. 1 (January 1991): 241–250. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2998, July 1989. Reprinted in Exchange Rates and Currency Bonds, edited by P. Krugman and M. Miller. London: CEPR, 1991.)
      • 1990
      • Chapter

      Chartists, Fundamentalists, and the Demand for Dollars

      By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Macroeconomics
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      Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Kenneth A. Froot. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and the Demand for Dollars." In Private Behaviour and Government Policy in Interdependent Economies, edited by Anthony Courakis and Mark Taylor, 73–128. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1990. (Reprinted in Greek Economic Review 10 (June 1988): 49-102; and translated in Cuadernos Economicos de ICE, No. 38 (1988): 195-242.)
      • Article

      Anomalies: Foreign Exchange

      By: K. A. Froot and R. Thaler
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
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      Froot, K. A., and R. Thaler. "Anomalies: Foreign Exchange." Journal of Economic Perspectives 4, no. 3 (Summer 1990): 179–192. (Reprinted in Current Issues in the International Economy: A Reader, edited by L. Goldberg and M. Klein. New York: Harper Collins, 1992; Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by M. Taylor and L. Gallagher. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2001; and in Open Economy Macroeconomics, Volume II, Part I, Article 4 edited by Norman Miller. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, Mass., U.S.: Edward Elgar, March 2006: 74-87.)
      • May 1990
      • Article

      Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market." American Economic Review 80, no. 2 (May 1990): 181–185. (Reprinted in New Developments in Exchange Rate Economics, edited by L. Sarno and M. Taylor. Edward Elgar, 2001; and in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by M. Taylor and L. Gallagher. Edward Elgar, 2001.)
      • December 1989
      • Article

      On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

      By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito
      This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
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      Froot, K. A., and T. Ito. "On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations." Journal of International Money and Finance 8, no. 4 (December 1989): 487–510. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2577, May 1988.)
      • Article

      Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?

      By: K. A. Froot and J. Frankel
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
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      Froot, K. A., and J. Frankel. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 104, no. 1 (February 1989): 139–161. (Revision of "Findings of Forward Discount Bias Interpreted in Light of Exchange Rate Survey Data," NBER Working Paper No. 1963 and Sloan Working Paper No. 1906-87, August 1987. Reprinted in Advances in Behavioral Finance, edited by Richard Thaler. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1993: 359-382 and in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by M. Taylor and L. Gallagher. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2001.)
      • 1988
      • Chapter

      Explaining the Demand for Dollars: International Rates of Return, and the Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists

      By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Macroeconomics
      Citation
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      Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Kenneth A. Froot. "Explaining the Demand for Dollars: International Rates of Return, and the Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists." Chap. 2 in Macroeconomics, Agriculture, and Exchange Rates, edited by R. Chambers and P. Paarlberg, 25–80. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1988.
      • September 1987
      • Article

      Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Japan; United States
      Citation
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data." Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 1 (September 1987): 249–274. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2216, April 1987.)
      • March 1987
      • Article

      Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Analytics and Data Science; Finance
      Citation
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations." American Economic Review 77, no. 1 (March 1987): 133–153. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 1672.)
      • December 1986
      • Article

      Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; History; Performance Expectations; Economics; United States
      Citation
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists." Special Issue Economic Record (December 1986): 24–38. (Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, vol. I, edited by R. MacDonald and M. Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, U.K., 1992.)
      • 1986
      • Article

      The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Macroeconomics
      Citation
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists." Marcus Wallenberg Papers on International Finance 1 (1986): 27–55. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 1854, March 1986.)
      • April 1984
      • Background Note

      Export Controls

      By: David B. Yoffie
      Explores the problems and opportunities associated with export controls--one of the most widely used tools of international trade policy in the 1970s and early 1980s; and the role of the United States and Soviet Union as major players in the international economy.... View Details
      Keywords: Macroeconomics; Trade; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Problems and Challenges; Opportunities; Soviet Union; United States
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      Yoffie, David B. "Export Controls." Harvard Business School Background Note 384-008, April 1984.
      • Teaching Interest

      Business, Government and the International Economy

      By: Dante Roscini
      Business, Government, and the International Economy (BGIE) is a course about the broad economic and political context in which business operates. Throughout their careers business leaders are asked to formulate and lead their firm's responses to the external... View Details
      Keywords: International Economy; Macroeconomics; Political Economy
      • Research Summary

      Capital Flows and Capital Goods (joint with Eliza Hammel)

      By: Laura Alfaro
      We examine one of the channels through which financial integration can help promote growth. In particular, we study the effects of capital account liberalization on the imports of capital goods. We pay particular attention to the effects of equity market... View Details
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