Publications

1998
Book

Forecasting Methods and Applications

By: S. Makridakis, S. Wheelwright, R. Hyndman and Y. Chang

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

24 Nov 2010
Working Paper Summaries

Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased

Keywords: by Richard S. Ruback

Research Summary

Does the Adoption of Rolling Forecasts Improve Planning?

This field study investigates the consequences of adopting rolling forecasts on organizational planning. Using quarterly product-line forecasted and realized sales data from several business units of a multinational biotechnology supplier, I find that subsequent to the... View Details

05 Jul 2006
Working Paper Summaries

Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns

Keywords: by Anna Scherbina; Financial Services

1989
Book

Forecasting Methods for Management

By: S. Makridakis and S. C. Wheelwright

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

2010
Working Paper

Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased

By: Richard S. Ruback

This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Performance Expectations; Prejudice and Bias; Valuation

Read Now

November 2018
Case

Komatsu Komtrax: Asset Tracking Meets Demand Forecasting

By: Willy Shih, Paul Hong and YoungWon Park

Komatsu's Komtrax system started as a way of remotely monitoring and tracking equipment for the purpose of improving operational efficiency. This case follows its evolution towards other uses including demand forecasting for its sales, marketing, and production... View Details

Keywords: Big Data; Manufacturing; Manufacturing Industry; Data Strategy; Internet Of Things; Construction; Production; Analytics and Data Science; Strategy; Performance Efficiency; Forecasting and Prediction; Industrial Products Industry; Construction Industry; Japan

Educators

September 1960 (Revised April 1983)
Background Note

Note on Financial Forecasting

Introduction to basic techniques of constructing pro forma statements and cash budgets. Illustrated by examples, supplemented by exercises. View Details

Keywords: Analysis; Investment

Educators

2013
Other Teaching and Training Material

Operations Management Reading: Forecasting

By: Steven C. Wheelwright and Ann B. Winslow

2016
Working Paper

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?

By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger

Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over optimistic relative to... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics

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June 2020
Supplement

Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

By: E. Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai

Research Summary

Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns

We present evidence of inefficient information processing in equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, investors fail to account for analysts' tendency to withhold negative views and to issue... View Details

25 Jul 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?

Keywords: by Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger

17 Oct 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing

Keywords: by Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

April 2010
Teaching Note

Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug (Brief Case)

By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham

Teaching Note to 4183 View Details

Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Price; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction

1995
Book

Data Analysis, Regression, and Forecasting

By: A. Schleifer Jr. and D. E. Bell

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

April 2010
Supplement

Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Faculty Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham

Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Demand and Consumers; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return

November 2023
Article

Brokerage House Initial Public Offerings and Analyst Forecast Quality

By: Mark Bradshaw, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt

We examine how brokerage firm initial public offerings (IPOs) influence the research quality of sell-side analysts employed by the brokerage. Our main results focus on earnings forecast bias and absolute forecast errors as proxies for research quality. Using a... View Details

Keywords: IPOs; Research Analysts; ＂Brokerage Industry; Initial Public Offering; Employees; Behavior; Outcome or Result

July 1999
Article

Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: Do Ability and Portfolio Complexity Matter

By: Michael B. Clement

Prior studies have identified systematic and time persistent differences in analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy, but have not explained why the differences exist. Using the I/B/E/S Detail History database, this study finds that forecast accuracy is positively... View Details

Keywords: Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Experience and Expertise