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(3,292)
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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,292)
- News (518)
- Research (2,501)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,608)
- May 2007 (Revised August 2007)
- Case
Prediction Markets at Google
By: Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani and Andrew P. McAfee
In its eight quarters of operation, Google's internally developed prediction market has delivered accurate and decisive predictions about future events of interest to the company. Google must now determine how to increase participation in the market, and how to best... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Market Participation; Information Technology
Coles, Peter A., Karim R. Lakhani, and Andrew P. McAfee. "Prediction Markets at Google." Harvard Business School Case 607-088, May 2007. (Revised August 2007.)
- 2005
- Working Paper
Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details
Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, January 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
- Article
Human Decisions and Machine Predictions
By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan
Kleinberg, Jon, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. "Human Decisions and Machine Predictions." Quarterly Journal of Economics 133, no. 1 (February 2018): 237–293.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33016, October 2024.
- April 2010
- Teaching Note
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug (Brief Case)
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
Teaching Note to 4183 View Details
- 2004
- Book
Predictable Surprises
By: M. H. Bazerman and M. Watkins
Bazerman, M. H., and M. Watkins. Predictable Surprises. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004. (Winner of Kulp-Wright Book Award For the book considered to be the most influential text published on the economics of risk management and insurance presented by American Risk and Insurance Association. Paperback published in 2008.)
- November 2023
- Article
Brokerage House Initial Public Offerings and Analyst Forecast Quality
By: Mark Bradshaw, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt
We examine how brokerage firm initial public offerings (IPOs) influence the research quality of sell-side analysts employed by the brokerage. Our main results focus on earnings forecast bias and absolute forecast errors as proxies for research quality. Using a... View Details
Keywords: IPOs; Research Analysts; ＂Brokerage Industry; Initial Public Offering; Employees; Behavior; Outcome or Result
Bradshaw, Mark, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli, and Brady Twedt. "Brokerage House Initial Public Offerings and Analyst Forecast Quality." Management Science 69, no. 11 (November 2023): 7079–7094.
- April 12, 2022
- Article
Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships
Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
- 17 Oct 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing
- 07 Jul 2020
- News
Predictable Financial Crises
- 08 Jan 2020
- News
Predictions for 2020
- January 1972
- Background Note
Note on Forecasting
By: Paul W. Marshall
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Marshall, Paul W. "Note on Forecasting." Harvard Business School Background Note 172-218, January 1972.
- July 1985
- Background Note
Measuring Forecast Accuracy
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Measuring Forecast Accuracy." Harvard Business School Background Note 186-027, July 1985.
- Winter 2016
- Article
Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization
By: Kris J. Ferreira, Bin Hong Alex Lee and David Simchi-Levi
We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an example of how a retailer can use its wealth of data to optimize pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time... View Details
Ferreira, Kris J., Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi. "Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18, no. 1 (Winter 2016): 69–88.
- May 2005
- Exercise
Forecasting the Adoption of E-books
By: Elie Ofek
Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Books; Analytics and Data Science; Product Launch; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of E-books." Harvard Business School Exercise 505-063, May 2005.
- 01 Dec 2014
- News
Forecasting ’15
Health Care: Data-Driven Diagnosis Robert Wah (AMP 175, 2008) President, American Medical Association; Global Chief Medical Officer, Computer Sciences Corporation “We’re entering the third phase of health information technology. The first phase was to get off of paper... View Details
- 24 Nov 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
Keywords: by Richard S. Ruback
- 2013
- Other Teaching and Training Material
Operations Management Reading: Forecasting
By: Steven C. Wheelwright and Ann B. Winslow
This reading provides an introduction to forecasting methods. It includes a brief summary of methods based on judgment and a longer section on quantitative analysis. It also provides sample data so students can develop an understanding of concepts such as correlation,... View Details
Wheelwright, Steven C., and Ann B. Winslow. "Operations Management Reading: Forecasting." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Boston: Harvard Business Publishing 8042, 2013.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions
By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
We investigate whether corporate officers should grant managers discretion to override AI-driven demand forecasts and labor scheduling tools. Analyzing five years of administrative data from a large grocery retailer using such an AI tool, encompassing over 500 stores,... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Working Conditions; Performance Productivity
Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, April 2024.
- October 2024
- Teaching Plan
Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble
By: Lou Shipley and Stacy Straaberg
In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina