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August 2024
Case

The Walt Disney Company: Management Guidance

By: Joseph Pacelli and James Weber

In November 2023, financial analyst Aurora Fee was forecasting The Walt Disney Company’s earnings and stock price, with the goal of providing an investment recommendation to her clients. Disney, one of the world’s largest media and entertainment companies, had just... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Accounting; Investment; Communication; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Earnings; Growth and Development Strategy; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States

August 2024 (Revised November 2024)
Case

No Labels and the 2024 Presidential Insurance Plan

By: Robert F. White and Tom Quinn

After observing record voter dissatisfaction with the choices in the 2024 U.S. presidential election—Democratic nominee President Joe Biden and Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump—the bipartisan nonprofit No Labels decided to reserve ballot access in... View Details

Keywords: Disruption; Forecasting and Prediction; Lawsuits and Litigation; Failure; System Shocks; Political Elections; Motivation and Incentives; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; United States

July 2024 (Revised September 2024)
Case

Shell’s Balancing Act: Resource Allocation and the Green Transition (Abridged)

By: David Collis and Haisley Wert

In mid-2023, amid pressure from climate change activists, shareholder activists, and confronting enormous uncertainty about the future demand for and price of fossil fuels, new Shell CEO Wael Sawan (Harvard MBA 2003) announced a change in strategy for the U.K. oil... View Details

Keywords: Oil ＆ Gas; Renewables; Forecasting Demand; Strategy; Energy; Climate Change; Resource Allocation; Corporate Strategy; Investment Activism; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Energy Industry

July 2024
Case

Jacqueline Cook at Vendasta: Debating an IPO

By: Reza Satchu, Tom Quinn and Andrew Kosc

In May 2021, after a surge in demand for digital services that prompted high valuations for startups across the Canadian tech sector, Saskatchewan-based Vendasta entered the final stages of the initial public offering (IPO) process. COO Jacqueline Cook had invested her... View Details

July 2024
Article

Chatbots and Mental Health: Insights into the Safety of Generative AI

By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp and Stefano Puntoni

Chatbots are now able to engage in sophisticated conversations with consumers. Due to the ‘black box’ nature of the algorithms, it is impossible to predict in advance how these conversations will unfold. Behavioral research provides little insight into potential safety... View Details

Keywords: Autonomy; Chatbots; New Technology; Brand Crises; Mental Health; Large Language Model; AI and Machine Learning; Behavior; Well-being; Technological Innovation; Ethics

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2024
Working Paper

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer

In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Inflation and Deflation; Personal Finance

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June 2024
Teaching Note

Roku 2021

By: David B. Yoffie

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 721-480. This case is used to explore the strategic concept of "look forward, reason back." Roku in 2021 is trying to figure out the future of television and streaming media. Students are asked to provide a vision for television and... View Details

Keywords: Technology; Television Entertainment; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy; Strategic Planning; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Media and Broadcasting Industry

June 2024
Case

Vinalhaven: The Downtown Project

By: Richard S. Ruback, Matthew Preble, Ruth Page and Dave Habeeb

Vinalhaven is an island community located approximately 12 miles off the coast of Maine. The island has a year-round population of about 1,300 people as of 2022, with an additional 3,000 people who reside on the island in the summer months. The two largest industries... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Environmental Regulation; Environmental Sustainability; Natural Resources; Natural Environment; Weather; Sustainable Cities; Forecasting and Prediction; Construction; Property; Infrastructure; Capital Budgeting; Projects; Project Finance; Negotiation; United States; Maine

June 2024
Supplement

Zeswitz Music (A)

By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff

Pre-Abstract: Instructors should consider the timing of making videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.
Abstract: In July of 2013, Randy Shayler (HBS, 2012) acquired Zeswitz Music, a musical instrument rental company based in Reading,... View Details

Keywords: Customer Focus and Relationships; Business Strategy; Acquisition; Revenue; Marketing; Music Industry; Retail Industry; Pennsylvania

June 2024
Supplement

Zeswitz Music (B)

By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff

Pre-Abstract: Instructors should consider the timing of making videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.
Abstract: In July of 2013, Randy Shayler (HBS, 2012) acquired Zeswitz Music, a musical instrument rental company based in Reading,... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Customer Focus and Relationships; Business Strategy; Revenue; Marketing; Music Industry; Retail Industry

2024
Working Paper

Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization

By: Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli

This paper introduces Incrementality Representation Learning (IRL), a novel multitask representation learning framework that predicts heterogeneous causal effects of marketing interventions. By leveraging past experiments, IRL efficiently designs and targets... View Details

Keywords: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Multi-task Learning; Representation Learning; Personalization; Promotion; Deep Learning; Field Experiments; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customization and Personalization

June 2024
Article

Going Digital: Implications for Firm Value and Performance

By: Wilbur Chen and Suraj Srinivasan

We examine firm value and performance implications of the growing trend of non-technology companies engaging in digital transformation. We measure digital activities in firms based on the disclosure of digital words in the business description section of 10-Ks. Digital... View Details

Keywords: Digital Technologies; Valuation; Return Predictability; Financial Statement Analysis; Performance; Value; Information Technology

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June 2024
Article

The Diversity Heuristic: How Team Demographic Composition Influences Judgments of Team Creativity

By: Devon Proudfoot, Zachariah Berry, Edward H. Chang and Min B. Kay

Despite mixed evidence for the relationship between demographic diversity and creativity, we propose that observers hold a lay belief that demographic diversity increases creativity and apply this lay belief in judgments about teams and their creative work. Across... View Details

Keywords: Diversity; Race; Gender; Groups and Teams; Perception; Creativity

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2024
Working Paper

LASH Risk and Interest Rates

By: Laura Alfaro, Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Jonathan Hazell and Ioana Neamtu

We introduce a framework to understand and quantify a form of liquidity risk that we dub Liquidity After Solvency Hedging or “LASH” risk. Financial institutions take LASH risk when they hedge against losses, using strategies that lead to liquidity needs when the value... View Details

Keywords: Liquidity; Monetary Policy; Non-bank Intermediaries; Hedging; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Funds; Financial Condition; Interest Rates

May 2024
Article

Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others

By: Rachel Ruttan, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli and Katherine DeCelles

Existing work on attribution theory distinguishes between external and internal attributions (i.e., “I overcame adversity due to luck” vs. “my own effort”). We introduce the construct of relational resilience attributions (i.e., “due to help from other people”) as a... View Details

Keywords: Personal Characteristics; Forecasting and Prediction; Attitudes; Behavior

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2024
Working Paper

Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions

By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo

We investigate whether corporate officers should grant managers discretion to override AI-driven demand forecasts and labor scheduling tools. Analyzing five years of administrative data from a large grocery retailer using such an AI tool, encompassing over 500 stores,... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Working Conditions; Performance Productivity

2024
Working Paper

Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?

By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Philipp Chvanov

Private Equity (“PE”) received a 10-fold increase in capital flows since the Great Financial Crisis (“GFC”) Investors sought higher nominal returns relative to those they could obtain in the public capital markets. This paper questions the fundamental assumptions... View Details

Keywords: Private Equity; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets

April 2024
Article

A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification

By: Hsin-Hsiao Scott Wang, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow and Caleb Nelson

Backgrounds: Urinary Tract Dilation (UTD) classification has been designed to be a more objective grading system to evaluate antenatal and post-natal UTD. Due to unclear association between UTD classifications to specific anomalies such as vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR),... View Details

Keywords: Health Disorders; Health Testing and Trials; AI and Machine Learning; Health Industry

April 2024
Article

Decision Authority and the Returns to Algorithms

By: Hyunjin Kim, Edward L. Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca

We evaluate a pilot in an Inspections Department to explore the returns to a pair of algorithms that varied in their sophistication. We find that both algorithms provided substantial prediction gains, suggesting that even simple data may be helpful. However, these... View Details

Keywords: Algorithmic Aversion; Algorithmic Decision Making; Algorithms; Public Entrepreneurship; Govenment; Local Government; Crowdsourcing; Crowdsourcing Contests; Inspection; Principal-agent Theory; Government Administration; Decision Making; Public Administration Industry; United States

April 2024
Article

Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter

We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries’ supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence... View Details

Keywords: Swap Spreads; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility

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