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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,379)
- News (517)
- Research (2,487)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,606)
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- 2009
- Case
The Prediction Lover's Handbook
By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris
When picking assessment tools to inform better decisions about future paths, executives are faced with a wide variety of options--some of which are well established, while others are in early stages of development. The authors provide an insider's guide to prediction... View Details
Davenport, Thomas H., and Jeanne G. Harris. "The Prediction Lover's Handbook." 2009.
- Article
Human Decisions and Machine Predictions
By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan
Kleinberg, Jon, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. "Human Decisions and Machine Predictions." Quarterly Journal of Economics 133, no. 1 (February 2018): 237–293.
- 2013
- Other Teaching and Training Material
Operations Management Reading: Forecasting
By: Steven C. Wheelwright and Ann B. Winslow
This reading provides an introduction to forecasting methods. It includes a brief summary of methods based on judgment and a longer section on quantitative analysis. It also provides sample data so students can develop an understanding of concepts such as correlation,... View Details
Wheelwright, Steven C., and Ann B. Winslow. "Operations Management Reading: Forecasting." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Boston: Harvard Business Publishing 8042, 2013.
- May 2005
- Exercise
Forecasting the Adoption of E-books
By: Elie Ofek
Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Books; Analytics and Data Science; Product Launch; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of E-books." Harvard Business School Exercise 505-063, May 2005.
- January 1972
- Background Note
Note on Forecasting
By: Paul W. Marshall
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Marshall, Paul W. "Note on Forecasting." Harvard Business School Background Note 172-218, January 1972.
- July 1985
- Background Note
Measuring Forecast Accuracy
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Measuring Forecast Accuracy." Harvard Business School Background Note 186-027, July 1985.
- 07 Jul 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Predictable Financial Crises
- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33016, October 2024.
- Winter 2016
- Article
Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization
By: Kris J. Ferreira, Bin Hong Alex Lee and David Simchi-Levi
We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an example of how a retailer can use its wealth of data to optimize pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time... View Details
Ferreira, Kris J., Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi. "Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18, no. 1 (Winter 2016): 69–88.
- October 2024
- Teaching Plan
Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble
By: Lou Shipley and Stacy Straaberg
In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina
- 2004
- Book
Predictable Surprises
By: M. H. Bazerman and M. Watkins
Bazerman, M. H., and M. Watkins. Predictable Surprises. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004. (Winner of Kulp-Wright Book Award For the book considered to be the most influential text published on the economics of risk management and insurance presented by American Risk and Insurance Association. Paperback published in 2008.)
- 17 Oct 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing
- March 2024
- Supplement
Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (B)
By: N. Louis Shipley, Stacy Straaberg and Tom Quinn
In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Valuation; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina
Shipley, N. Louis, Stacy Straaberg, and Tom Quinn. "Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 824-148, March 2024.
- September 2010
- Article
Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?
By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details
Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution; Goods and Commodities; Cost; Public Sector; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; United States
Kesavan, Saravanan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman. "Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?" Management Science 56, no. 9 (September 2010): 1519–1533.
- November 2023
- Article
Brokerage House Initial Public Offerings and Analyst Forecast Quality
By: Mark Bradshaw, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt
We examine how brokerage firm initial public offerings (IPOs) influence the research quality of sell-side analysts employed by the brokerage. Our main results focus on earnings forecast bias and absolute forecast errors as proxies for research quality. Using a... View Details
Keywords: IPOs; Research Analysts; ＂Brokerage Industry; Initial Public Offering; Employees; Behavior; Outcome or Result
Bradshaw, Mark, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli, and Brady Twedt. "Brokerage House Initial Public Offerings and Analyst Forecast Quality." Management Science 69, no. 11 (November 2023): 7079–7094.
- January–February 2023
- Article
Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions
By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas
We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Epidemics; Analytics and Data Science; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
Li, Michael Lingzhi, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis, and Dimitris Bertsimas. "Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions." Operations Research 71, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 184–201.
- March 2024
- Case
Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (A)
By: N. Louis Shipley and Stacy Straaberg
In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina
Shipley, N. Louis, and Stacy Straaberg. "Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (A)." Harvard Business School Case 824-057, March 2024.
- Research Summary
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)
Conducting research on new management concepts in supply chain management like CPFR. Identifying best practices in the nine-step-CPFR process. Major differences in CPFR-implementation in the U.S., Europe, South America, Asia and Africa.Linking e-marketplaces in the... View Details
- September 2023 (Revised February 2024)
- Case
Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth
By: Mark Egan
As 2017 was drawing to a close, birddogs’ founder and CEO, Peter Baldwin, was working with his CFO Jack Sullivan to prepare for 2018. Their task at hand? To predict the demand for their product in the coming season, determine the appropriate investments in working... View Details
Keywords: Inventory; Working Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Financing and Loans; Apparel and Accessories Industry
Egan, Mark. "Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs' Growth." Harvard Business School Case 224-023, September 2023. (Revised February 2024.)
- 2013
- Case
Surveying Professional Forecasters
By: K. C. Lichtendahl and Y. Grushka-Cockayne
Lichtendahl, K. C., and Y. Grushka-Cockayne. "Surveying Professional Forecasters." University of Virginia, Darden School of Business Case UVA-QA-0805, 2013.