Publications

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24 Nov 2010
Working Paper Summaries

Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased

Keywords: by Richard S. Ruback

February 2005
Article

Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting

By: Michael B. Clement and Senyo Tse

This study classifies analysts' earnings forecasts as herding or bold and finds that (1) boldness likelihood increases with the analyst's prior accuracy, brokerage size, and experience and declines with the number of industries the analyst follows, consistent with... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Financial Services Industry

April 2016
Teaching Note

Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016

By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter and Jonathan Cohen

This Note was created for the purpose of aiding classroom instructors in the use of the Harvard Business School case, "Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016." As chairman and CEO, David Kenny guided the Weather Company's transformation from a cable television... View Details

Keywords: Weather Company; IBM; Digital; Technology; David Kenny; Television; Weather Channel; Legacy Business; Mainstream; Newstream; Reorganization; Acquisitions; Transformation; Information Technology; Television Entertainment; Acquisition; Consolidation; Change; Leadership

2010
Working Paper

Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased

By: Richard S. Ruback

This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Performance Expectations; Prejudice and Bias; Valuation

Read Now

1998
Book

Forecasting Methods and Applications

By: S. Makridakis, S. Wheelwright, R. Hyndman and Y. Chang

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

Research Summary

Does the Adoption of Rolling Forecasts Improve Planning?

This field study investigates the consequences of adopting rolling forecasts on organizational planning. Using quarterly product-line forecasted and realized sales data from several business units of a multinational biotechnology supplier, I find that subsequent to the... View Details

05 Jul 2006
Working Paper Summaries

Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns

Keywords: by Anna Scherbina; Financial Services

1989
Book

Forecasting Methods for Management

By: S. Makridakis and S. C. Wheelwright

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

November 2018
Case

Komatsu Komtrax: Asset Tracking Meets Demand Forecasting

By: Willy Shih, Paul Hong and YoungWon Park

Komatsu's Komtrax system started as a way of remotely monitoring and tracking equipment for the purpose of improving operational efficiency. This case follows its evolution towards other uses including demand forecasting for its sales, marketing, and production... View Details

Keywords: Big Data; Manufacturing; Manufacturing Industry; Data Strategy; Internet Of Things; Construction; Production; Analytics and Data Science; Strategy; Performance Efficiency; Forecasting and Prediction; Industrial Products Industry; Construction Industry; Japan

Educators

September 1960 (Revised April 1983)
Background Note

Note on Financial Forecasting

Introduction to basic techniques of constructing pro forma statements and cash budgets. Illustrated by examples, supplemented by exercises. View Details

Keywords: Analysis; Investment

Educators

2013
Other Teaching and Training Material

Operations Management Reading: Forecasting

By: Steven C. Wheelwright and Ann B. Winslow

Research Summary

Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns

We present evidence of inefficient information processing in equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, investors fail to account for analysts' tendency to withhold negative views and to issue... View Details

Fast Answer

Historical and forecasted economic statistics

Where can I find... View Details

June 2020
Supplement

Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

By: E. Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai

2016
Working Paper

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?

By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger

Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over optimistic relative to... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics