Publications

12 Jul 2016
First Look

July 12, 2016

Calibrating the model to data from the Financial Accounts of the U.S., the optimal capital requirement is around 20%. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=51305 Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

January 2001 (Revised July 2003)
Case

Pharmacyclics: Financing Research & Development

By: Malcolm P. Baker, Richard S. Ruback and Aldo Sesia

Pharmacyclics (NASDAQ: PCYC), a pharmaceutical company that manufactures products that will improve existing therapeutic treatments for cancer, arteriosclerosis, and retinal disease, was considering a $60 million private placement in February 2000. The company had more... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Cash Flow; Financing and Loans; Business Startups; Financial Strategy; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; Health Industry

Fourth Quarter 2007
Article

Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk

By: Dale . F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to measure, analyze, and manage sovereign risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Investment; Sovereign Finance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

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October 1991 (Revised January 2002)
Case

Butler Lumber Company

By: Thomas R. Piper

The Butler Lumber Co. is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth and low profitability. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed, and assess the attractiveness of the... View Details

Keywords: Commercial Banking; Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Strategy; Financing and Loans; Capital Structure; Forecasting and Prediction

31 Mar 2008
HBS Case

JetBlue’s Valentine’s Day Crisis

JetBlue founder, chairman, and then-CEO David Neeleman would later call "the worst operational week in JetBlue's seven-year history." A Storm Brews It started with a winter ice storm forecasted to change to rain. With that... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Air Transportation

September 2001 (Revised April 2002)
Case

Ocean Carriers

By: Erik Stafford, Angela Chao and Kathleen Luchs

In January 2001, Mary Linn, vice president of finance for Ocean Carriers, a shipping company with offices in New York and Hong Kong, was evaluating a proposed lease of a ship for a three-year period, beginning in early 2003. The customer was eager to finalize the... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost of Capital; Leasing; Corporate Strategy; Valuation; Shipping Industry; New York (city, NY); Hong Kong

March 2019 (Revised May 2019)
Case

Growth Investing at Totem Point

By: Suraj Srinivasan, Charles C.Y. Wang and Jonah Goldberg

The case describes the investment of hedge fund, Totem Point Management in Analog Semiconductors (ADI) as a way to discuss forecasting and valuation in growth companies. In June 2016, hedge fund Totem Point invested in ADI at around $55 a share. In general, Totem Point... View Details

Keywords: Growth Investing; Investment; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation

June 2015 (Revised July 2016)
Case

Gilbert Lumber Company

By: Steven Rogers and Kenneth Cooper

The Gilbert Lumber Co. is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth and low profitability. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed, and assess the attractiveness of... View Details

Keywords: Commercial Banking; Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Strategy; Financing and Loans; Capital Structure; Forecasting and Prediction

Article

An Integrated Decision-Making Approach for Improving European Air Traffic Management

By: Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Bert De Reyck and Zeger Degraeve

We develop a multistakeholder, multicriteria decision-making framework for Eurocontrol, the European air traffic management organization, for evaluating and selecting operational improvements to the air traffic management system. The selected set of improvements will... View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Framework; Operations; Performance Improvement; Government Administration; Air Transportation Industry; Europe

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2023
Working Paper

Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness

By: Neil Menghani, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill

In this paper, we develop a new criterion, "insufficiently justified disparate impact" (IJDI), for assessing whether recommendations (binarized predictions) made by an algorithmic decision support tool are fair. Our novel, utility-based IJDI criterion evaluates false... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Prejudice and Bias

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23 Oct 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018

forecasters, and selecting an appropriate evaluation measure, while connecting the processes of aggregating and evaluating forecasts to decision-making. Through three important... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

22 Apr 2020
Research Event

How Investors Are Sizing Up Climate Change’s Risks—and Opportunities

standards and data. Many governments around the world have begun assigning prices to carbon dioxide emissions, but it’s unclear if they can agree on a common global standard. Without industrywide measures, firms have been taking their own steps to View Details

Keywords: by Danielle Kost; Financial Services

November 1999 (Revised July 2003)
Case

Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc.

By: Paul M. Healy and Jacob Cohen

Pre-Paid Legal Services' business model reveals two key issues--managing the sales force and sales growth and managing claims. Students analyze the economics of the business and consider how to measure firm performance, how to evaluate and reward the sales force, and... View Details

Keywords: Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Salesforce Management; Marketing Strategy; Accrual Accounting; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance; Business Growth and Maturation; Insurance Industry

December 1970 (Revised September 2006)
Case

Harmon Foods, Inc.

Prediction and shipment has been a scheduling and budgetary problem. Multiple regression is suggested as a solution. Evaluation of regression coefficients leads to better understanding of trend, seasonality, and promotion effectiveness. View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Production; Forecasting and Prediction; Budgets and Budgeting; Manufacturing Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

2007
Working Paper

The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are

By: Ann E. Tenbrunsel, Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni and Max H. Bazerman

This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and evaluation is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Prejudice and Bias

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20 Oct 2011
Research & Ideas

Getting the Marketing Mix Right

Businesses rely on solid marketing strategies to boost sales—yet the tools used to evaluate these strategies often provide misleading results, leaving managers with the inability to accurately measure how they can get the best bang for... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

13 May 2008
First Look

First Look: May 13, 2008

levels of thinking. Purchase this book: http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/ b01/en/common/item_detail.jhtml?id=2115&referral=2342 Do Buy-Side Analysts Earnings Forecasts Out-Perform Those of the Sell-Side? Authors:Boris... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

April 1998 (Revised November 1999)
Case

Hamilton Financial Investments: A Franchise Built on Trust

By: Robert L. Simons and Antonio Davila

Provides a vehicle for students to evaluate risk management in the fast-paced mutual funds industry. A new risk manager has been hired to install new management controls and procedures. A series of decisions will determine how much business and franchise risk the... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Management Teams; Managerial Roles; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Performance Evaluation; Corporate Strategy; Change Management; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry

June 1990 (Revised January 1993)
Case

Dynatronics, Inc. (Abridged)

By: Thomas R. Piper

Provides an opportunity to evaluate an investment in a new product line in strategic, competitive, organizational, and economic terms. The economic analysis involves an estimation of the relevant cash flows and discounting them at an appropriate hurdle rate. View Details

Keywords: Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Capital Budgeting