Forecast Combination - Publications - Faculty & Research

October–December 2022
Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction

Citation

Find at Harvard

Register to Read

01 Oct 2001
Research & Ideas

How To Make Restructuring Work for Your Company

objective. Combining the two banks created opportunities to eliminate overlaps in such areas as back-office staff, branch offices, and computing infrastructure. Management of both banks also believed that larger and more diversified... View Details

Keywords: by Stuart C. Gilson

14 Mar 2023
In Practice

What Does the Failure of Silicon Valley Bank Say About the State of Finance?

on SVB, and the subsequent run on other regional banks. Many observers postulate that the vulnerability was hiding in plain sight (an unsettling thought), a result of a combination of COVID government stimulus followed by a series of... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman; Financial Services; Banking

17 Sep 2012
Research & Ideas

Blue Skies, Distractions Arise: How Weather Affects Productivity

To The Lab With that supporting data in hand, the team decided to test the weather/productivity connection in the controlled setting of a research lab. The goal was to establish causality for the correlative findings. "I love when you View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel

15 Jul 2019
Book

Many Executives Are Afraid of Finance. Here's How They Can Gain Confidence

being possibly regulated as a publisher, and many, many other things! Unsurprisingly, people get valuations wrong all the time. That’s part of what makes finance so much fun and so interesting. People’s forecasts will differ, and... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

13 Nov 2019
Research & Ideas

Don't Turn Your Marketing Function Over to AI Just Yet

practice. “We propose to step back and ask how we can best integrate machine learning to solve previously untenable marketing problems facing real companies?” Combining man and machine A product of the 11th Triennial Invitational Choice... View Details

Keywords: by Kristen Senz

21 Aug 2019
Research & Ideas

What Machine Learning Teaches Us about CEO Leadership Style

expressions of chief executives to see if leadership style can be correlated with a firm’s performance. The researchers believe their work could open new directions in big data analysis, combining image and textual analysis to create a... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

23 May 2018
Research & Ideas

How to Know If Your Neighborhood Is Being Gentrified

Luca, Harvard University Economics Professor Edward L. Glaeser, and HBS doctoral student Hyunjin Kim. The researchers combined data from US Census reports, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Google Street View, and Yelp to explore... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

03 Oct 2005
Research & Ideas

The Box Office Power of Stars

can help to attract audiences to the film. Their power may find its origins in superior acting skills, a loyal fan base, a knack for picking the most promising projects, a strong relationship with other creative talent, a solid box-office record, or a View Details

Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert; Entertainment & Recreation; Motion Pictures & Video

10 Oct 2011
Research & Ideas

Retailing Revolution: Category Killers on the Brink

the web. Given that the forecast for total retail sales over the next several years is flat to minimal growth after inflation, any sales that occur online will be at the expense of in-store sales. Clearly, bricks-and-mortar store... View Details

Keywords: by Rajiv Lal & Jose B. Alvarez; Retail

18 Jul 2019
Lessons from the Classroom

The Internet of Things Needs a Business Model. Here It Is

sensors can be combined with weather forecasting to help energy companies figure out the optimal amount of electricity they should sell into the grid. “Very little human intervention is needed,” Lal says.... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Computer

24 Sep 2020
Research & Ideas

Financial Meltdowns Are More Predictable Than We Thought

household debt were growing quickly. That combination is “a natural signal of an outward shift in the supply of credit, which then sows the seeds of its own destruction,” the researchers write in their working paper Predictable Financial... View Details

Keywords: by Danielle Kost; Financial Services

16 Oct 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 16, 2018

input more valuable. Distributed supermodular complementarity (DSMC) exists when two or more independent actors can create complementary value by pursuing their own interests and will not find it advantageous to combine in order to... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

06 May 2015
What Do You Think?

Are You Ready for Personalized Predictive Analytics?

Summing Up Personal Predictive Analytics: Should We Be Careful What We Wish For? The world of continuous monitoring of numerous sensors for machines and humans, limitless information storage capacity, and big data combined with rapid... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

09 Dec 2015
Research Event

How Do You Predict Demand and Set Prices For Products Never Sold Before?

predictive and prescriptive analytics can be combined to develop a tactical decision-making tool that makes a big impact on the bottom line. For details about the research and the successful machine learning tool, see the paper “Analytics... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail; Apparel & Accessories

28 Oct 2024
Op-Ed

Latino Voters Have Grown More Politically Divided. That’s Not Surprising.

asked, if each group voted like they did in the last election, who would win the next one? “Our analysis of data combining voters’ opinions with party platforms showed that where voters lead, parties tend to follow.” It turns out that... View Details

Keywords: by Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro

11 Apr 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research, April 11

forthcoming Journal of Accounting & Economics Career Concerns of Banking Analysts By: Horton, Joanne, George Serafeim, and Shan Wu Abstract—We study how career concerns influence banking analysts' forecasts and how their View Details

01 Jul 2014
First Look

First Look: July 1

firm-level expected returns and expected profitability are time-varying but highly persistent; 2) forecasts of holding period returns strongly predict the cross section of future returns up to three years ahead. We document a highly... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

14 Apr 2009
First Look

First Look: April 14, 2009

these settings. In this paper we set out to accomplish both tasks by investigating the implementation of a lean production system at an Indian software services firm. Combining a detailed case study and empirical analysis we document the... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

07 Jul 2009
First Look

First Look: July 7

Working PapersConsistency and Monotonicity in One-Sided Assignment Problems Authors:Bettina Klaus and Alexandru Nichifor Abstract One-sided assignment problems combine important features of two well-known matching models. First, as in... View Details