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- All HBS Web (85)
- Faculty Publications (28)
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- 20 Dec 2011
- First Look
First Look: December 20
The Wall Street Journal. We find no evidence that compensation is related to earnings forecast accuracy. But consistent with prior studies, we find analyst turnover to be related to forecast accuracy,... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
- 19 Dec 2006
- First Look
First Look: December 19, 2006
In this paper we propose a perceptions framework for categorizing a range of inventory policies, including optimal inventory policies, that can be employed in a single-stage supply chain. The perceptions framework is based on forecasting... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 19 Oct 2010
- First Look
First Look: October 19, 2010
different organizational contexts, i.e., summer field training and during academic semesters. Leader performance was measured with leadership grades (supervisor ratings) aggregated over four years at West Point. Findings-After controlling... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 09 Mar 2016
- Lessons from the Classroom
In This Classroom, Beer Can Improve Your Grade
harder for breweries to fall into bailout loans, which happened to many teams last year, Casadesus-Masanell says. Enhanced graphics include waterfall charts for just about every metric imaginable on a team’s own brewery and its competitors. Teams can drill down via a... View Details
- 03 Dec 2015
- Op-Ed
How "New Nuclear" Power Could Save the Planet—If Regulators Would Allow It
energy needs that they view as essential to development of their nations and the lives of their citizens. The aggregate sum of those national plans presents a stark reality to the world’s leaders. The accumulating greenhouse gases,... View Details
- 15 Apr 2008
- First Look
First Look: April 15, 2008
that, at the aggregate level, is similar to the one sector neoclassical growth model, while, at the disaggregate level, has implications for the path of observable measures of technology adoption. We estimate our model using data on the... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 12 Feb 2008
- First Look
First Look: February 12, 2007
variation in average asset returns than aggregate or non-stockholder consumption risk and provides more plausible economic magnitudes. We find that risk aversion estimates around 10 can match observed risk premia for the wealthiest... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 19 Aug 2008
- First Look
First Look: August 19, 2008
large-store formats, multiple-store formats and extensive channel blurring in the U.S. retail industry. Our analysis is based on aggregate segment-level data from the Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS), the Monthly Retail Trade Survey... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 12 Jul 2011
- First Look
First Look: July 12
firms is particularly useful for forecasting bond returns. We show that a significant decline in issuer quality is a more reliable signal of credit market overheating than rapid aggregate credit growth. We... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
- 28 Sep 2010
- First Look
First Look: September 28, 2010
economic growth and the intensive and extensive margins of technology adoption. The "extensive" margin refers to the timing of a country's adoption of a new technology; the "intensive" margin refers to how many units are adopted (for a given size... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 06 Jun 2017
- First Look
First Look at New Research and Ideas: June 6, 2017
policy debate. Positive aggregate productivity gains are often attributed to within-firm productivity improvement; however, an alternative, less emphasized explanation is between-firm selection and market reallocation, whereby competition... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 28 Jan 2014
- First Look
First Look: January 28
Publications August 2013 Princeton University Press Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters By: Friedman, Walter A. Abstract—The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 17 Mar 2011
- Research & Ideas
Harvard Business School Faculty Comment on Crisis in Japan
times the $132 billion that the 1995 Kobe earthquake did, making it one of the Japan's most costly natural disasters. Transportation disruptions and the closing of many factories throughout Japan will shrink Japanese aggregate demand and... View Details
Keywords: Re: Multiple Faculty
- 26 Jun 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, June 26, 2018
valuation of volatile stocks, which we contend measures the economy’s risk appetite. Our novel proxy for risk appetite explains 41% of the variation in the one-year real rate since 1970, while the valuation of the aggregate stock market... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- 04 Oct 2004
- Research & Ideas
Start to Measure Your E-commerce Success
potential payoffs of e-commerce investments. Measuring returns on e-commerce projects can be a daunting challenge. Predicting customer behavior is difficult, because using the Web to do business is still relatively new to many businesses and thus View Details
Keywords: by Marc J. Epstein
- 24 Jan 2017
- First Look
First Look at New Research: January 24, 2017
earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually announced. Analysts have more positive forecast errors in positive... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 05 Mar 2013
- First Look
First Look: March 5
particularly useful for forecasting bond returns. We show that a significant decline in issuer quality is a more reliable signal of credit market overheating than rapid aggregate credit growth. We use these... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 14 Nov 2017
- First Look
New Research and Ideas: November 14, 2017
probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up, can all help forecast an eventual crash and future returns; and (4) some of these characteristics can... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
- 02 Mar 2015
- Research & Ideas
‘Retail Revolution’ Excerpt: The Scale of the Ecommerce Threat
take their place and the need for stocking or tidying up merchandise at store level doesn't exist. Without a store network, real estate costs are confined to a handful of distribution centers. Inventory aggregation at a few key points of... View Details
- 12 Jun 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, June 12, 2018
capital-market or product-market benefits from inclusion. Status incentives contributed to the observed performance improvement. Back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that JPX400 inclusion incentives accounted for 16% (20%) of the growth in View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman