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  • 27 May 2014
  • First Look

First Look: May 27

insignificant or a significantly negative association with future returns. In supplemental analyses, we show that these forecasts are also informative of the time-series variation in aggregate conditions: 1)... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 08 Jan 2008
  • First Look

First Look: January 8, 2008

aggregate demand, the national accounts, and the balance of payments. We find that much aid is consumed, primarily in the form of imported non-capital goods. Some aid is invested and aid has a positive, though statistically imprecise,... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 06 Feb 2006
  • What Do You Think?

Should CEOs of Public Companies Offer Earnings Guidance?

forecast dispersion increases and forecast accuracy decreases." For those wishing the full story, read "Is Silence Golden? An Empirical Analysis of Firms that Stop Giving Quarterly Earnings... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett; Financial Services
  • 17 Mar 2021
  • Research & Ideas

Beyond Pajamas: Sizing Up the Pandemic Shopper

When working professionals were shifting to home offices a year ago as COVID-19 was spreading, comedians and pundits predicted that people would no longer need bras and pants that aren’t stretchy. Instead customers would make room for pajamas and athleisure wear. Only... View Details
Keywords: by Ayelet Israeli, Eva Ascarza, and Laura Castrillo; Retail
  • 20 Mar 2018
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, March 20, 2018

https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=54214 forthcoming Operations Research Online Network Revenue Management Using Thompson Sampling: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization By: Ferreira, Kris J., David Simchi-Levi, and He... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 27 Mar 2012
  • First Look

First Look: March 27

Publication:Quarterly Journal of Economics (forthcoming) Abstract We argue that social capital as proxied by trust increases aggregate productivity by affecting the organization of firms. To do this we collect new data on the... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 19 Aug 2008
  • First Look

First Look: August 19, 2008

large-store formats, multiple-store formats and extensive channel blurring in the U.S. retail industry. Our analysis is based on aggregate segment-level data from the Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS), the Monthly Retail Trade Survey... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 19 Oct 2010
  • First Look

First Look: October 19, 2010

different organizational contexts, i.e., summer field training and during academic semesters. Leader performance was measured with leadership grades (supervisor ratings) aggregated over four years at West Point. Findings-After controlling... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 12 Feb 2008
  • First Look

First Look: February 12, 2007

variation in average asset returns than aggregate or non-stockholder consumption risk and provides more plausible economic magnitudes. We find that risk aversion estimates around 10 can match observed risk premia for the wealthiest... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 09 Mar 2016
  • Lessons from the Classroom

In This Classroom, Beer Can Improve Your Grade

harder for breweries to fall into bailout loans, which happened to many teams last year, Casadesus-Masanell says. Enhanced graphics include waterfall charts for just about every metric imaginable on a team’s own brewery and its competitors. Teams can drill down via a... View Details
Keywords: by Roberta Holland; Education; Food & Beverage
  • 03 Dec 2015
  • Op-Ed

How "New Nuclear" Power Could Save the Planet—If Regulators Would Allow It

energy needs that they view as essential to development of their nations and the lives of their citizens. The aggregate sum of those national plans presents a stark reality to the world’s leaders. The accumulating greenhouse gases,... View Details
Keywords: by Joseph Lassiter; Energy
  • 15 Apr 2008
  • First Look

First Look: April 15, 2008

that, at the aggregate level, is similar to the one sector neoclassical growth model, while, at the disaggregate level, has implications for the path of observable measures of technology adoption. We estimate our model using data on the... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 06 Jun 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas: June 6, 2017

policy debate. Positive aggregate productivity gains are often attributed to within-firm productivity improvement; however, an alternative, less emphasized explanation is between-firm selection and market reallocation, whereby competition... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 28 Oct 2014
  • First Look

First Look: October 28

associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but we forecast low future returns. We propose and estimate a behavioral model of industry cycles that can account for the evidence. In our model,... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 26 Jun 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, June 26, 2018

valuation of volatile stocks, which we contend measures the economy’s risk appetite. Our novel proxy for risk appetite explains 41% of the variation in the one-year real rate since 1970, while the valuation of the aggregate stock market... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 28 Sep 2010
  • First Look

First Look: September 28, 2010

economic growth and the intensive and extensive margins of technology adoption. The "extensive" margin refers to the timing of a country's adoption of a new technology; the "intensive" margin refers to how many units are adopted (for a given size... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 28 Jan 2014
  • First Look

First Look: January 28

  Publications August 2013 Princeton University Press Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters By: Friedman, Walter A. Abstract—The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 04 Oct 2004
  • Research & Ideas

Start to Measure Your E-commerce Success

potential payoffs of e-commerce investments. Measuring returns on e-commerce projects can be a daunting challenge. Predicting customer behavior is difficult, because using the Web to do business is still relatively new to many businesses and thus View Details
Keywords: by Marc J. Epstein
  • 24 Jan 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research: January 24, 2017

earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually announced. Analysts have more positive forecast errors in positive... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 05 Mar 2013
  • First Look

First Look: March 5

particularly useful for forecasting bond returns. We show that a significant decline in issuer quality is a more reliable signal of credit market overheating than rapid aggregate credit growth. We use these... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

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