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- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
- Fall 2024
- Article
Redemption Mechanisms in Poison Pills: Evidence on Pill Design and Law Firm Effects
By: Olivier Baum and Guhan Subramanian
We present the first evidence on the incidence of “trip wire” versus “last look” poison pills. Using a hand-collected data set of 130 poison pills implemented and/or amended between January 1, 2020 and March 31, 2023, we find that pills are almost evenly divided... View Details
- Fall, 2024
- Article
Sixty Years of the Voting Rights Act: Progress and Pitfalls
By: Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini and Cecilia Testa
We review the literature on the effects of the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA), which removed formal restrictions to Black political participation. After a brief description of racial discrimination suffered by Black Americans since Reconstruction, we introduce the goals... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Does Private Equity Have Any Business Being in the Health Care Business?
By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Zirui Song
Private Equity (“PE”) has come under increased scrutiny by the press, academics, and policymakers, as well as the public, for its investments in health care delivery. This scrutiny has been exacerbated by recent high profile hospital bankruptcies following PE... View Details
- September 2024
- Article
A Potential Pitfall of Passion: Passion Is Associated with Performance Overconfidence
By: Erica R. Bailey, Kai Krautter, Wen Wu, Adam D. Galinsky and Jon M. Jachimowicz
Having passion is almost universally lauded. People strive to follow their passion at work, and organizations increasingly seek out passionate employees. Supporting the benefits of passion, prior research finds a robust relationship between passion and higher levels of... View Details
- September 2024
- Article
Activist Directors: Determinants and Consequences
By: Ian D. Gow, Sa-Pyung Sean Shin and Suraj Srinivasan
This paper examines determinants and consequences of hedge fund activism, focusing on activist directors, i.e., directors appointed in response to activist demands. Using a sample of 3,259 activism events from 2004 to 2016, we identify 1,623 activist directors.... View Details
- September 2024
- Article
Gender Gaps: Back and Here to Stay? Evidence from Skilled Ugandan Workers During COVID-19
By: Livia Alfonsi, Mary Namubiru and Sara Spaziani
We investigate gender disparities in the effect of COVID-19 on the labor market outcomes of skilled Ugandan workers. Leveraging a high-frequency panel dataset, we find that the lockdowns imposed in Uganda reduced employment by 69% for women and by 45% for men,... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Patent Hunters
By: Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun, Katie Moon and Paula Suh
Analyzing millions of patents granted by the USPTO between 1976 and 2020, we find a pattern where specific patents only rise to prominence after considerable time has passed. Amongst these late-blooming influential patents, we show that there are key players (patent... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
The New Digital Divide
By: Mayana Pereira, Shane Greenstein, Raffaella Sadun, Prasanna Tambe, Lucia Ronchi Darre, Tammy Glazer, Allen Kim, Rahul Dodhia and Juan Lavista Ferres
We build and analyze new metrics of digital usage that leverage telemetry data collected by Microsoft during operating system updates across forty million Windows devices in U.S. households. These measures of US household digital usage are much more comprehensive than... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies
By: Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Jérôme Schäfer
In recent years, voter ID laws and convenience voting have generated heated partisan debates. To shed light on these policy issues, we survey the recent evidence on the institutional determinants and effects of voter turnout and broaden the perspective beyond the most... View Details
- September–October 2024
- Article
Where Data-Driven Decision-Making Can Go Wrong
By: Michael Luca and Amy C. Edmondson
When considering internal data or the results of a study, often business leaders either take the evidence presented as gospel or dismiss it altogether. Both approaches are misguided. What leaders need to do instead is conduct rigorous discussions that assess any... View Details
- 2024
- Article
Crucibles, Multiple Sensitive Periods, and Career Progression
By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Sunasir Dutta, Hise O. Gibson and Eric Lin
We study the effects of crucible experiences along multiple sensitive periods on career progression. While prior literature has hinted that individuals can be imprinted during multiple sensitive periods, not just during the early career, there has been scant attention... View Details
- August 2024
- Article
Heuristics on Call: The Impact of Mobile-Phone-Based Business-Management Advice
By: Shawn Cole, Mukta Joshi and Antoinette Schoar
There is growing evidence that business training for micro-entrepreneurs can be effective. However, in-person training can be expensive and imposes costs on the target beneficiaries. This paper presents the results of a two-site randomized evaluation of a light-touch,... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Immodest Victims: Victims Who Broadcast Their Victimization Are Seen as Less Morally Virtuous
By: Nathan Dhaliwal, Jillian J. Jordan, Anoushka Kiyawat and Pat Barclay
How do people evaluate victims who advertise their victim status? Because such broadcasting can elicit sympathy and support, we propose that declining to broadcast serves as a costly act of modesty: one is withholding a fact about oneself that could garner resources... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
People, Practices, and Productivity: A Review of New Advances in Personnel Economics
By: Mitchell Hoffman and Christopher T. Stanton
This chapter surveys recent advances in personnel economics. We begin by presenting evidence showing substantial and persistent productivity variation among workers in the same roles. We discuss new research on incentives and compensation; hiring practices; the... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Primary Capital Market Transactions and Index Funds
By: Marco Sammon and Chris Murray
We document the effects of mechanical buying by CRSP-index-tracking funds on post-IPO returns and IPO deal structure. Leveraging a difference-in-differences-style design built on a 2017 CRSP rule change, we find that expected index fund demand leads fast track IPOs to... View Details
- August 20, 2024
- Article
Sexual Assault Victims Face a Penalty for Adjacent Consent
By: Jillian J. Jordan and Roseanna Sommers
Across 11 experimental studies (n = 12,257), we show that female victims of sexual assault are blamed more and seen as less morally virtuous if their assault follows voluntary sexual intimacy, a factor we term “adjacent consent”. Moreover, we illuminate a... View Details
- Working Paper
The Returns to Skills During the Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Uganda
By: Livia Alfonsi, Vittorio Bassi, Imran Rasul and Elena Spadini
The Covid-19 pandemic represents one of the most significant labor market shocks to the world economy in recent times. We present evidence from a field experiment to understand whether and why skilled and unskilled workers were differentially impacted by the shock, in... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Rise of Alternatives
By: Juliane Begenau, Pauline Liang and Emil Siriwardane
Since the 2000s, U.S. public pensions have shifted their risky investments towards alternative assets like private equity and hedge funds, some more aggressively than others. We explore several explanations for these cross-sectional trends, focusing on those implied by... View Details