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    • All HBS Web  (1,032)
      • Faculty Publications  (218)

      Choice ModelingRemove Choice Modeling →

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      • October 2022
      • Exercise

      Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for Homebuyer

      By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
      Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Market Timing; Measurement and Metrics
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      Luca, Michael, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Nathan Sun. "Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for Homebuyer." Harvard Business School Exercise 923-022, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Exercise

      Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for iBuyer

      By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
      Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing; Decision Making
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      Luca, Michael, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Nathan Sun. "Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for iBuyer." Harvard Business School Exercise 923-023, October 2022.
      • Article

      Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

      By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang
      We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of... View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment
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      Egan, Mark, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds." Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 5 (October 2022): 2559–2599.
      • Article

      The Value of Intermediation in the Stock Market

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Mark Egan and Francesco Franzoni
      We estimate a structural model of broker choice to quantitatively decompose the value that institutional investors attach to broker services. Studying over 300 million institutional equity trades, we find that investors are sensitive to both explicit and implicit... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Intermediation; Institutional Investors; Research Analysts; Broker Networks; Equity Trading; Institutional Investing
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Mark Egan, and Francesco Franzoni. "The Value of Intermediation in the Stock Market." Journal of Financial Economics 145, no. 2A (August 2022): 208–233.
      • July 2022 (Revised February 2025)
      • Case

      A Soul and a Service: North Carolina Mutual Life Insurance

      By: Tom Nicholas and John Masko
      The North Carolina Mutual and Provident Association (the Mutual) was founded in 1898 as a for-profit entity selling life insurance catering to the Black community. The Mutual was entering a field crowded with established White-owned competitors that largely refused to... View Details
      Keywords: Black Entrepreneurs; Insurance; History; Race; Prejudice and Bias; Entrepreneurship; Decision Choices and Conditions; Growth and Development Strategy; Insurance Industry; United States
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      Nicholas, Tom, and John Masko. "A Soul and a Service: North Carolina Mutual Life Insurance." Harvard Business School Case 823-032, July 2022. (Revised February 2025.)
      • July 2022 (Revised October 2024)
      • Case

      3G Capital

      By: Jo Tango and Alys Ferragamo
      In June 2022, 3G Capital Co-Managing Partners Alex Behring and Daniel Schwartz were in a partners’ meeting. On the agenda were three potential investments. Code named “Alpha,” “Bravo,” and “Charlie” (real target companies that have been disguised), they were the... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Decisions; Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Private Equity; Leveraged Buyouts
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      Tango, Jo, and Alys Ferragamo. "3G Capital." Harvard Business School Case 823-010, July 2022. (Revised October 2024.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Product2Vec: Leveraging Representation Learning to Model Consumer Product Choice in Large Assortments

      By: Fanglin Chen, Xiao Liu, Davide Proserpio and Isamar Troncoso
      We propose a method, Product2Vec, based on representation learning, that can automatically learn latent product attributes that drive consumer choices, to study product-level competition when the number of products is large. We demonstrate Product2Vec’s... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Choice; Consumer Behavior; Competition; Product Marketing
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      Chen, Fanglin, Xiao Liu, Davide Proserpio, and Isamar Troncoso. "Product2Vec: Leveraging Representation Learning to Model Consumer Product Choice in Large Assortments." NYU Stern School of Business Research Paper Series, July 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      How to Choose a Default

      By: John Beshears, Richard T. Mason and Shlomo Benartzi
      We have developed a model for setting a default when a population is choosing among ordered choices—that is, ones listed in ascending or descending order. A company, for instance, might want to set a default contribution rate that will increase employees’ average... View Details
      Keywords: Nudge; Choice Architecture; Behavioral Economics; Behavioral Science; Default; Savings; Decision Choices and Conditions; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives
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      Beshears, John, Richard T. Mason, and Shlomo Benartzi. "How to Choose a Default." Behavioral Science & Policy 8, no. 1 (2022): 1–15.
      • 2022
      • Chapter

      Prioritarianism and Optimal Taxation

      By: Matti Tuomala and Matthew Weinzierl
      Prioritarianism has been at the center of the formal approach to optimal tax theory since its modern starting point in Mirrlees (1971), but most theorists’ use of it is motivated by tractability rather than explicit normative reasoning. We characterize analytically and... View Details
      Keywords: Prioritarianism; Optimal Taxation; Utilitarianism; Redistribution; Inverse-optimum; Taxation; Theory; Policy
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      Tuomala, Matti, and Matthew Weinzierl. "Prioritarianism and Optimal Taxation." In Prioritarianism in Practice, edited by Matthew Adler and Ole Norheim. Cambridge University Press, 2022. (Also published in HBR Insights, December 2020.)
      • January 2022 (Revised August 2022)
      • Case

      Jackie Robinson: Changing the World

      By: Robert Simons and Max Saffer
      This case traces the rise of Jackie Robinson from the poor streets of Pasadena, California to one of the most famous people in America after he overturned the color barrier in baseball. The case describes how as a youth he excelled at basketball, football, baseball,... View Details
      Keywords: Diversity; Power And Influence; Personal Characteristics; Values And Beliefs; Mission And Purpose; Sports; Entrepreneurship; Leadership; Leading Change; Personal Development and Career; United States
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      Simons, Robert, and Max Saffer. "Jackie Robinson: Changing the World." Harvard Business School Case 122-042, January 2022. (Revised August 2022.)
      • January 2022
      • Teaching Plan

      Just Arrived: Integrating Refugees in Sweden

      By: Brian Trelstad and Emilie Billaud
      Teaching Plan for HBS Case No. 321-040. Just Arrived is an online platform that matches newly-arrived immigrants in Sweden with employment opportunities. As one of several for-profit and non-profit start-ups in Europe that is looking to address the refugee crisis, the... View Details
      Keywords: Immigration; Refugees; Employment; Integration; Business Model; Social Entrepreneurship; Growth and Development Strategy; Employment Industry; Sweden; Italy; Germany
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      Trelstad, Brian, and Emilie Billaud. "Just Arrived: Integrating Refugees in Sweden." Harvard Business School Teaching Plan 322-025, January 2022.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences

      By: Mark Egan, Alexander MacKay and Hanbin Yang
      We present an empirical model of portfolio choice that allows for the nonparametric estimation of investors' (subjective) expectations and risk preferences. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 401(k) plans from 2009 through 2019, we explore heterogeneity in asset... View Details
      Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Retirement Planning; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; 401 (K); Finance; Investment Portfolio; Investment; Retirement; Behavioral Finance; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Egan, Mark, Alexander MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-044, December 2021. (Revisions Requested at the Review of Financial Studies. Revised April 2024. Direct download. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29604, December 2021)
      • October 2021 (Revised May 2023)
      • Case

      Engine No. 1: An Impact Investing Firm Engages with ExxonMobil

      By: Mark Kramer, Shawn Cole, Vikram S. Gandhi and T. Robert Zochowski
      ExxonMobil, the world's fifth largest source of carbon emissions, remained committed to aggressively expanding its oil & gas business despite global warming. During the COVID pandemic this strategy resulted in massive losses as the price and demand for oil declined. ... View Details
      Keywords: Carbon Emissions; Global Warming; Impact Investment Funds; Hedge Fund Activism; Leadership Development; Business Model; Renewable Energy; Resource Allocation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Governing and Advisory Boards
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      Kramer, Mark, Shawn Cole, Vikram S. Gandhi, and T. Robert Zochowski. "Engine No. 1: An Impact Investing Firm Engages with ExxonMobil." Harvard Business School Case 222-028, October 2021. (Revised May 2023.)
      • October 1, 2021
      • Article

      An Evaluation of Cross-efficiency Methods: With an Application to Warehouse Performance.

      By: B.M. Balk, M.R. De Koster, Christian Kaps and J.L. Zofio
      Cross-efficiency measurement is an extension of Data Envelopment Analysis that allows for tie-breaking ranking of the Decision Making Units (DMUs) using all the peer evaluations. In this article we examine the theory of cross-efficiency measurement by comparing a... View Details
      Keywords: Efficiency Analysis; Performance Benchmarking; Warehousing; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods
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      Balk, B.M., M.R. De Koster, Christian Kaps, and J.L. Zofio. "An Evaluation of Cross-efficiency Methods: With an Application to Warehouse Performance." Art. 126261. Applied Mathematics and Computation 406 (October 1, 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Salience

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their... View Details
      Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Salience." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29274, September 2021.
      • July–August 2021
      • Article

      Why Do So Many Strategies Fail?

      By: David J. Collis
      THE PROBLEM: Seemingly successful new companies struggle to turn a healthy profit. Established firms get disrupted by upstarts. Companies that excel at serving their markets can’t adapt when customers’ tastes shift. THE ROOT CAUSE: All too often, business leaders focus... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Strategic Planning; Business Model; Value; Value Creation; Opportunities
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      Collis, David J. "Why Do So Many Strategies Fail?" Harvard Business Review 99, no. 4 (July–August 2021): 82–93.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Impact Accounting for Product Use: A Framework and Industry-specific Models

      By: George Serafeim and Katie Trinh
      This handbook provides the first systematic attempt to generate a framework and industry-specific models for the measurement of impacts on customers and the environment from use of products and services, in monetary terms, that can then be reflected in financial... View Details
      Keywords: Impact Measurement; Product Impact; Customer Welfare; Environment; ESG; Product; Customers; Well-being; Environmental Sustainability; Measurement and Metrics; Accounting; Financial Statements; Analysis; Framework
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      Serafeim, George, and Katie Trinh. "Impact Accounting for Product Use: A Framework and Industry-specific Models." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-141, June 2021.
      • June 15, 2021
      • Article

      Cutting the Gordian Knot of Employee Health Care Benefits and Costs: A Corporate Model Built on Employee Choice

      By: Regina E. Herzlinger and Barak D. Richman
      President Joe Biden’s promise to give every American access to affordable health insurance is well-intentioned, but his plan’s policy elements—a public option, a permanent expanded tax credit—require congressional approval and would expend significant political and... View Details
      Keywords: Health Insurance; Health Insurance Marketplaces; Health Care Delivery; Health Care Financing; Health Care Industry; Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Service Delivery; Cost Management; Health Industry; United States
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      Herzlinger, Regina E., and Barak D. Richman. "Cutting the Gordian Knot of Employee Health Care Benefits and Costs: A Corporate Model Built on Employee Choice." Health Affairs Blog (June 15, 2021).
      • May 2021
      • Article

      Choice Architecture in Physician–patient Communication: A Mixed-methods Assessment of Physicians' Competency

      By: J. Hart, K. Yadav, S. Szymanski, A. Summer, A. Tannenbaum, J. Zlatev, D. Daniels and S.D. Halpern
      Background: Clinicians’ use of choice architecture, or how they present options, systematically influences the choices made by patients and their surrogate decision makers. However, clinicians may incompletely understand this influence.... View Details
      Keywords: Choice Architecture; Health Care and Treatment; Interpersonal Communication; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competency and Skills
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      Hart, J., K. Yadav, S. Szymanski, A. Summer, A. Tannenbaum, J. Zlatev, D. Daniels, and S.D. Halpern. "Choice Architecture in Physician–patient Communication: A Mixed-methods Assessment of Physicians' Competency." BMJ Quality & Safety 30, no. 5 (May 2021).
      • April 2021 (Revised March 2024)
      • Case

      Social Media War 2021: Snap vs. Facebook vs. TikTok

      By: David B. Yoffie and Daniel Fisher
      This case explores the competitive war between Snap, Facebook, and TikTok in 2021. The strategic focus is on Snapchat: how should it respond to the emergence of TikTok, and how should it compete with the dominant competitor in its space—Facebook. The case examines... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy Development; Competitor Analysis; Strategy; Network Effects; Competitive Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions; Social Media
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      Yoffie, David B., and Daniel Fisher. "Social Media War 2021: Snap vs. Facebook vs. TikTok." Harvard Business School Case 721-443, April 2021. (Revised March 2024.)
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