Publications

June 2018
Article

The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy

By: Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam

We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: (i) the central bank has some private information about its long-run target for the policy rate, and (ii) the central bank is averse to bond-market volatility. In this setting, discretionary monetary policy... View Details

Keywords: Central Banking; Interest Rates; Policy; Bonds; Financial Markets

2013
Working Paper

What Makes the Bonding Stick? A Natural Experiment Involving the U.S. Supreme Court and Cross-Listed Firms

By: Amir N. Licht, Christopher Poliquin, Jordan I. Siegel and Xi Li

On March 29, 2010, the U.S. Supreme Court signaled its intention to geographically limit the reach of the U.S. securities antifraud regime and thus differentially exclude U.S.-listed foreign firms from the ambit of formal U.S. antifraud enforcement. We use this legal... View Details

Keywords: Crime and Corruption; International Finance; Investment; Corporate Governance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Courts and Trials; Legal Liability; United States

SSRN

January 2018 (Revised January 2021)
Case

Colombia's 4G Road Program: The Pacífico 3 Bond Offer

By: John Macomber, Maria Fernanda Miguel and Mariana Cal

Colombia conceived its 4G (Fourth Generation) Road Program to try to attract $17 billion from the private sector for investment in toll roads. The nation had also created the National Infrastructure Agency of Colombia (ANI) to oversee multiple investments, and the... View Details

Keywords: Private Public Partnerships; Infrastructure; Projects; Finance; Emerging Markets; Colombia

Purchase

Research Summary

Characteristics of Corporate Bond Transactions: Evolution Through Time and Across Liquidity (with George Chacko, Marti Subrahmanyam, and Jeffrey Sutthoff)

The US corporate bond market is one of the most opaque, illiquid markets for corporate securities. Large, comprehensive bond databases are scarce, making it difficult to formally study and understand bond trading behavior. In this paper, we use a unique database of... View Details

Article

Market Reactions to Sovereign Litigation

By: Faisal Z. Ahmed and Laura Alfaro

Recent rulings in the ongoing litigation over the pari passu clause in Argentinian sovereign debt instruments have generated considerable controversy. Some official-sector participants and academic articles have suggested that the rulings will disrupt or impede... View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Debt; Litigation; Vulture Funds; Argentina; Sovereign Finance; Lawsuits and Litigation; Markets; Argentina

Article

The Value of Trading Relations in Turbulent Times

By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Zhaogang Song

This paper investigates how dealers’ trading relations shape their trading behavior in the corporate bond market. Dealers charge lower spreads to dealers with whom they have the strongest ties and more so during periods of market turmoil. Systemically important dealers... View Details

Keywords: OTC Markets; Network; Corporate Bonds; Crisis; Intermediation Chains; Leaning Against The Wind; Networks; Bonds; Behavior; Financial Crisis

2005
Working Paper

Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions

By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler

A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details

Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods

May 2010
Article

Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements

By: William Cready and Umit G Gurun

This analysis identifies a distinct immediate announcement period negative relation between earnings announcement surprises and aggregate market returns. Such a relation implies that market participants use earnings information in forming expectations about expected... View Details

Keywords: Aggregate Earnings; Investment Return; United States

23 Apr 2014
Working Paper Summaries

Corporate Financial Policies in Misvalued Credit Markets

Keywords: by Jarrad Harford, Marc Martos-Vila & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf; Financial Services; Banking

Forthcoming
Article

Calling All Issuers: The Market for Debt Monitoring

By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen and Weiling Liu

95% of long-term municipal bonds have callable features, and yet we find new evidence of a substantial fraction of local governments exercising these valuable options sub-optimally, with significant delays – resulting in sizable losses. Using data from 2001 to 2019, we... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Financial Institutions; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Government Administration; Financing and Loans

June 2019
Article

Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. We revisit sovereign debt sustainability under the assumptions that countries can accumulate reserves and borrow internationally using their own... View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Debt; Local-currency Bonds; Foreign Reserves; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Financial Markets; Developing Countries and Economies

1991
Chapter

Reactions to Political Advertising Depend on the Nature of the Voter-Candidate Bond

By: J. A. Deighton, L. F. Alwitt and J. Grimm

Keywords: Advertising Campaigns; Political Elections; Relationships; Attitudes; Advertising Industry

July 2009 (Revised July 2009)
Case

Delphi Corp. and the Credit Derivatives Market (A)

By: Stuart C. Gilson, Victoria Ivashina and Sarah Abbott

In 2005, Jane Bauer-Martin, a hedge fund manager, is considering what she should do with the fund's large investment in the publicly traded bonds of Delphi Corp., a financially troubled auto parts supplier. Delphi is General Motor's key auto parts supplier, and, like... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Bonds; Financial Management; Risk Management

Purchase

12 Nov 2008
Research & Ideas

The Marketing of a President

Editor's Note: Harvard Business School professor John Quelch writes a blog on marketing issues, called Marketing Know: How, for Harvard Business Online. It is reprinted on HBS Working Knowledge. When the... View Details

Keywords: by John Quelch

June 2006 (Revised April 2024)
Case

Creditor Activism in Sovereign Debt: 'Vulture' Tactics or Market Backbone

By: Laura Alfaro and Ingrid Vogel

The role of distressed debt funds, also known as "vulture funds," in sovereign debt restructuring was a hotly debated topic, especially after the success of Elliot Associates in converting an $11 million investment in Peruvian bonds worth $21 million into a $58 million... View Details

Keywords: Vulture Funds; Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Activism; Investment Funds; Sovereign Finance; Government and Politics; Contracts; Business and Government Relations; Peru

Purchase

June 2025
Case

TfL Pension Fund and the 2022 Gilt Market Crisis

By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Vincent Dessain, Emer Moloney and Carlota Moniz

On September 27, 2022, Padmesh Shukla, CIO of the Transport for London (TfL) Pension Fund, was keeping a careful eye on the turmoil in the U.K. sovereign bond (or gilt) market. When the new government announced the largest tax cuts the U.K. had seen in half a century,... View Details