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- Faculty Publications (146)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (490)
- Faculty Publications (146)
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- Research Summary
Credit markets
Bond market; Bank lending; Credit markets institutions; Credit ratings View Details
- 13 Jan 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply
When Do Stocks and Bonds Move Together, and Why Does it Matter?
The co-movement of Treasury bonds and stocks is an important indicator for both policy makers and for long-term investors. A positive co-movement between nominal Treasury bonds and stocks, as in the 1980s, means that nominal bonds amplify the volatility of stock... View Details
- June 2018
- Article
The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy
By: Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam
We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: (i) the central bank has some private information about its long-run target for the policy rate, and (ii) the central bank is averse to bond-market volatility. In this setting, discretionary monetary policy... View Details
Stein, Jeremy C., and Adi Sunderam. "The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy." Journal of Finance 73, no. 3 (June 2018): 1015–1060.
- 2006
- Working Paper
Can Civil Law Countries Get Good Institutions? Creditor Rights and Bond Markets in Brazil, 1850-2003
By: Aldo Musacchio
Musacchio, Aldo. "Can Civil Law Countries Get Good Institutions? Creditor Rights and Bond Markets in Brazil, 1850-2003." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 06-040, March 2006.
- Article
Perceptions and the Politics of Finance: Junk Bonds and the Regulatory Seizure of First Capital Life
By: S. C. Gilson, H. DeAngelo and L. DeAngelo
In May 1991, one month after seizing Executive Life, California regulators seized First Capital Life (FCLIC). Both insurers were Drexel clients with large junk bond holdings, and both had experienced 'bank runs.' FCLIC's run followed regulators' televised comments that... View Details
Gilson, S. C., H. DeAngelo, and L. DeAngelo. "Perceptions and the Politics of Finance: Junk Bonds and the Regulatory Seizure of First Capital Life." Journal of Financial Economics 41, no. 3 (July 1996): 475–511.
- 27 May 2011
- Working Paper Summaries
An Empirical Decomposition of Risk and Liquidity in Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Government Bonds
Keywords: by Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira
- Fast Answer
Fixed Income Research: bond data, ratings, and reports
markets (includes Barron's, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, etc.). Reuters News - Bonds Bond Buyer - Daily news on US Municipal View Details
- 2016
- Chapter
Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
We present a model of the yield curve in which the central bank can provide market participants with forward guidance on both future short rates and on future Quantitative Easing (QE) operations, which affect bond supply. Forward guidance on short rates works through... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Gregory Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply." In Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edited by Elias Albagli, Diego Saravia, and Michael Woodford, 11–62. Santiago: Banco Central de Chile, 2016. (Working Paper version: NBER Working Paper No. 21750 Here.)
- 18 Apr 2014
- News
Strengthening the bond between the U.S. and China
Former US Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. (MBA 1970) talks about his current work in US-China relations as CEO of the Paulson Institute. (Published April 2014) View Details
- 2013
- Working Paper
What Makes the Bonding Stick? A Natural Experiment Involving the U.S. Supreme Court and Cross-Listed Firms
By: Amir N. Licht, Christopher Poliquin, Jordan I. Siegel and Xi Li
On March 29, 2010, the U.S. Supreme Court signaled its intention to geographically limit the reach of the U.S. securities antifraud regime and thus differentially exclude U.S.-listed foreign firms from the ambit of formal U.S. antifraud enforcement. We use this legal... View Details
Keywords: Crime and Corruption; International Finance; Investment; Corporate Governance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Courts and Trials; Legal Liability; United States
Licht, Amir N., Christopher Poliquin, Jordan I. Siegel, and Xi Li. "What Makes the Bonding Stick? A Natural Experiment Involving the U.S. Supreme Court and Cross-Listed Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-072, January 2011. (Revised August 2013.)
- January 2018 (Revised January 2021)
- Case
Colombia's 4G Road Program: The Pacífico 3 Bond Offer
By: John Macomber, Maria Fernanda Miguel and Mariana Cal
Colombia conceived its 4G (Fourth Generation) Road Program to try to attract $17 billion from the private sector for investment in toll roads. The nation had also created the National Infrastructure Agency of Colombia (ANI) to oversee multiple investments, and the... View Details
Keywords: Private Public Partnerships; Infrastructure; Projects; Finance; Emerging Markets; Colombia
Macomber, John, Maria Fernanda Miguel, and Mariana Cal. "Colombia's 4G Road Program: The Pacífico 3 Bond Offer." Harvard Business School Case 218-062, January 2018. (Revised January 2021.)
- Research Summary
Characteristics of Corporate Bond Transactions: Evolution Through Time and Across Liquidity (with George Chacko, Marti Subrahmanyam, and Jeffrey Sutthoff)
The US corporate bond market is one of the most opaque, illiquid markets for corporate securities. Large, comprehensive bond databases are scarce, making it difficult to formally study and understand bond trading behavior. In this paper, we use a unique database of... View Details
The Market for Green Securities
We study green bonds, which are bonds whose proceeds are used for environmentally sensitive purposes. After an overview of the U.S. corporate and municipal green bonds markets, we study pricing and ownership patterns using a simple framework that incorporates assets... View Details
Disruption and Credit Markets
When innovation and entry are high in an industry, is this good or bad news for incumbents? We show that recently the answer has been bad news. Industries with elevated venture capital activity and returns, and with a larger presence of newly listed firms, show a... View Details
- Article
The Value of Trading Relations in Turbulent Times
By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Zhaogang Song
This paper investigates how dealers’ trading relations shape their trading behavior in the corporate bond market. Dealers charge lower spreads to dealers with whom they have the strongest ties and more so during periods of market turmoil. Systemically important dealers... View Details
Keywords: OTC Markets; Network; Corporate Bonds; Crisis; Intermediation Chains; Leaning Against The Wind; Networks; Bonds; Behavior; Financial Crisis
Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, and Zhaogang Song. "The Value of Trading Relations in Turbulent Times." Journal of Financial Economics 124, no. 2 (May 2017): 266–284.
- Article
Market Reactions to Sovereign Litigation
By: Faisal Z. Ahmed and Laura Alfaro
Recent rulings in the ongoing litigation over the pari passu clause in Argentinian sovereign debt instruments have generated considerable controversy. Some official-sector participants and academic articles have suggested that the rulings will disrupt or impede... View Details
Keywords: Sovereign Debt; Litigation; Vulture Funds; Argentina; Sovereign Finance; Lawsuits and Litigation; Markets; Argentina
Ahmed, Faisal Z., and Laura Alfaro. "Market Reactions to Sovereign Litigation." Capital Markets Law Journal 12, no. 2 (April 2017): 141–163.
- May 2010
- Article
Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements
By: William Cready and Umit G Gurun
This analysis identifies a distinct immediate announcement period negative relation between earnings announcement surprises and aggregate market returns. Such a relation implies that market participants use earnings information in forming expectations about expected... View Details
Cready, William, and Umit G Gurun. "Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements." Journal of Accounting Research 48, no. 2 (May 2010): 289–334.
- 2005
- Working Paper
Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details
Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, January 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)