Publications

2020
Working Paper

Aggregate Advertising Expenditure in the U.S. Economy: What's Up? Is It Real?

By: Alvin J. Silk and Ernst R. Berndt

The two components of the advertising industry—the creative sector that develops and produces messages, and the communications sector that transmits messages via various media—have each been greatly affected by advances in creative design and communications... View Details

Keywords: Economy; Advertising; Spending; Media

2012
Working Paper

The Dark Side of the Vote: Biased Voters, Social Information, and Information Aggregation Through Majority Voting

We experimentally investigate information aggregation through majority voting when some voters are biased. In such situations, majority voting can have a "dark side", i.e. result in groups making choices inferior to those made by individuals acting alone. We develop a... View Details

Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Voting

06 Jan 2021
Working Paper Summaries

Aggregate Advertising Expenditure in the US Economy: What's Up? Is It Real?

Keywords: by Alvin J. Silk and Ernst R. Berndt; Advertising; Media & Broadcasting

July 2003
Article

The Effects of Monetary Magnitude and Level of Aggregation on the Temporal Framing of Price

By: John T. Gourville

Keywords: Price

September 2017
Case

Blackstone's Julia Kahr at the Summit

By: Paul A. Gompers, John D. Dionne and Amram Migdal

In 2009, Blackstone, the New York-based alternative asset and financial services firm, committed to invest up to $750 million into Summit Materials, a new company in the aggregates sector (i.e., construction materials, such as crushed stone, sand, gravel, cement,... View Details

Article

Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts

By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli

We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively... View Details

Keywords: Culture; Forecasting; Sell-side Analysts; Information Aggregation; Diversity; Forecasting and Prediction; Information; Performance Improvement

Article

Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, K. C. Lichtendahl, V.R.R. Jose and R.L. Winkler

From forecasting competitions to conditional value-at-risk requirements, the use of multiple quantile assessments is growing in practice. To evaluate them, we use a rule from the general class of proper scoring rules for a forecaster’s multiple quantiles of a single... View Details

Keywords: Forecast; Aggregation; Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

March 2009
Book Review

Review of 'Foreign Direct Investment: Analysis of Aggregate Flows' by A. Razin and E. Sadka

By: Laura Alfaro

2021
Article

Aggregate Advertising Expenditure in the U.S. Economy: Measurement and Growth Issues in the Digital Era

By: Alvin J. Silk and Ernst R. Berndt

The two components of the advertising industry—the creative sector that develops and produces messages, and the communications sector that transmits messages via various media—have each been greatly affected by advances in creative design and communications... View Details

Keywords: Industry Evolution; Advertising; Spending; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods; Media; Advertising Industry; United States

Article

An Exploration of Optimal Stabilization Policy

By: N. Gregory Mankiw and Matthew C. Weinzierl

This paper examines the optimal response of monetary and fiscal policy to a decline in aggregate demand. The theoretical framework is a two-period general equilibrium model in which prices are sticky in the short-run and flexible in the long-run. Policy is evaluated by... View Details

Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Economic Models; Aggregate Demand; Demand and Consumers; Money; Mathematical Methods; Taxation; Spending; Policy; Welfare; Household; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation

2018
Working Paper

Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler

Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate forecast. Because the average... View Details

Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Linear Opinion Pool; Generalized Additive Model; Generalized Linear Model; Stacking.; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

March 2013 (Revised May 2014)
Case

Unilever's New Recipe for Growth

By: Jordan Siegel, Christopher Poliquin and Barbara Zepp Larson

This case looks at Unilever and its ongoing efforts at regional strategy and organizational change in Europe. View Details

Keywords: Regional Strategy; Aggregation; Organizational Change; Global Strategy; Consumer Products Industry; Europe

2017
Working Paper

The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer

By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani

We assess the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) serves as an automatic stabilizer to mitigate the economy's sensitivity to shocks. Using a local labor market design based on heterogeneity in local benefit generosity (defined as the percentage of household... View Details

Keywords: Unemployment Insurance; Automatic Stabilizers; Bartik Shocks; Aggregate Demand; System Shocks; Employment; Balance and Stability; Insurance; Volatility; Insurance Industry

Article

The Growing Problem of Patent Trolling

By: Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun and Scott Duke Kominers

The last decade has seen a sharp rise in patent litigation in the U.S., with 2015 having one of the highest patent lawsuit counts on record. In theory, this could be a consequence of growth in the commercialization of technology and innovation—patent lawsuits increase... View Details

Keywords: Patent Aggregators; Patent Litigation; Patent Pools; Patent Trolls; Patents; Lawsuits and Litigation; United States

January 2021
Article

Chain Stability in Trading Networks

By: John William Hatfield, Scott Duke Kominers, Alexandru Nichifor, Michael Ostrovsky and Alexander Westkamp

We show that in general trading networks with bilateral contracts, a suitably adapted chain stability concept (Ostrovsky, 2008) is equivalent to stability (Hatfield and Kominers, 2012; Hatfield et al., 2013) if all agents' preferences are fully substitutable and... View Details

Keywords: Matching; Trading Networks; Chain Stability; Stability; Competitive Equilibria; Full Substitutability; Laws Of Aggregate Supply And Demand; Contracts; Market Design; Balance and Stability

November 2012 (Revised August 2013)
Supplement

Global Unichip Corporation (B)

By: Willy Shih and Chen-Fu Chien

Jim Lai, President of Global Unichip Corporation (GUC), mapped out the changes he saw coming to the global semiconductor industry. The big question was how many system developers would start coming directly to GUC. View Details

October 2012 (Revised August 2013)
Case

Global Unichip Corporation (A)

By: Willy Shih and Chen-Fu Chien

Global Unichip Corporation (GUC) is a design services company that acts as a front-end to TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor foundry. In so doing, it masked the complexity of the latest process technologies, and reduced the entry barriers for small firms to... View Details

November 2013 (Revised August 2015)
Case

Janet Yellen and the Bernanke Fed

By: Matthew Weinzierl and Katrina Flanagan

The unelected Federal Reserve Chairman exerts exceptional influence over the U.S., in fact global, economy. As Janet Yellen prepared to take over the position, she would look back on Chairman Bernanke's tenure during the Great Recession. During that time, Bernanke was... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Nominal Rigidity And Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply; Phillips Curve; Taylor Rule; Central Bank Independence; Central Banking; Money; Policy; Financial Crisis; Power and Influence; Banking Industry; Public Administration Industry; United States

December 1982 (Revised June 1993)
Background Note

Economics: An Introduction and Vocabulary

Introduces students to some general tools of economics that will be useful in analyzing macroeconomic performance in a course on business, government, and the international economy. The four sections are: 1) the economy as a circular flow, 2) supply and demand, 3)... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics