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      • September 2011
      • Article

      Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas

      By: Edward J. Riedl and George Serafeim
      Using a sample of U.S. financial institutions, we exploit recent mandatory disclosures of financial instruments designated as fair value level 1, 2, and 3 to test whether greater information risk in financial instrument fair values leads to higher cost of capital. We... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Assets; Cost of Capital; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Corporate Disclosure; Information; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; United States
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      Riedl, Edward J., and George Serafeim. "Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas." Journal of Accounting Research 49, no. 4 (September 2011): 1083–1122.
      • 2011
      • Chapter

      The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly

      By: George Serafeim
      Keywords: Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Serafeim, George. "The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly." Chap. 3 in The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies: Translating Market Inefficiencies into Effective Investment Strategies, edited by Len Zacks, 63–91. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments

      By: Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford
      This paper studies the cost of capital for alternative investments. We document that the risk profile of the aggregate hedge fund universe can be accurately matched by a simple index put option writing strategy that offers monthly liquidity and complete transparency... View Details
      Keywords: Cost of Capital; Financial Liquidity; Investment; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Jurek, Jakub W., and Erik Stafford. "The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-013, September 2011. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19643, November 2013.)
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      'Last-place Aversion': Evidence and Redistributive Implications

      By: Ilyana Kuziemko, Ryan W. Buell, Taly Reich and Michael I. Norton
      Why do low-income individuals often oppose redistribution? We hypothesize that an aversion to being in "last place" undercuts support for redistribution, with low-income individuals punishing those slightly below themselves to keep someone "beneath" them. In laboratory... View Details
      Keywords: Wages; Surveys; Wealth and Poverty; Behavior; Income; Research; Rank and Position; Attitudes; Personal Characteristics; Economics
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      Kuziemko, Ilyana, Ryan W. Buell, Taly Reich, and Michael I. Norton. "'Last-place Aversion': Evidence and Redistributive Implications." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 17234, August 2011.
      • July – August 2011
      • Article

      Evolve (Again)

      By: Rosabeth M. Kanter
      Frenzy over social networks and interactive media can produce equally overhyped predictions that everything will change, not to mention money-losing investments in silly ventures. Separating enduring strategic lessons from the hype can help avoid a new crash. Hint: the... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Venture Capital; Investment; Technological Innovation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Partners and Partnerships
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      Kanter, Rosabeth M. "Evolve (Again)." Harvard Business Review 89, nos. 7-8 (July–August 2011): 36.
      • July – August 2011
      • Article

      Foundations of Organizational Trust: What Matters to Different Stakeholders?

      By: Michael Pirson and Deepak Malhotra
      Prior research on organizational trust has not rigorously examined the context specificity of trust nor distinguished between the potentially varying dimensions along which different stakeholders base their trust. As a result, dominant conceptualizations of... View Details
      Keywords: Trust; Competency and Skills; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Framework; Analytics and Data Science; Surveys; Organizations; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Identity; Perspective
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      Pirson, Michael, and Deepak Malhotra. "Foundations of Organizational Trust: What Matters to Different Stakeholders?" Organization Science 22, no. 4 (July–August 2011): 1087–1104.
      • July – August 2011
      • Article

      The Paradox of Samsung's Rise

      By: Tarun Khanna, Jaeyong Song and Kyungmook Lee
      Twenty years ago, few people would have predicted that Samsung could transform itself from a low-cost original equipment manufacturer to a world leader in R&D, marketing, and design, with a brand more valuable than Pepsi, Nike, or American Express. Fewer still would... View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Design; Research and Development; Marketing; Business Processes; Brands and Branding; System; Globalized Markets and Industries; Transformation; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Production; Quality; China; India; Turkey
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      Khanna, Tarun, Jaeyong Song, and Kyungmook Lee. "The Paradox of Samsung's Rise." Harvard Business Review 89, nos. 7-8 (July–August 2011): 142–147.
      • July – August 2011
      • Article

      What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?

      By: Boris Groysberg, Paul Healy, Nitin Nohria and George Serafeim
      A firm's competitive environment, its strategic choices, and its internal capabilities are considered important determinants of its future performance. Yet there is little evidence on whether analysts' forecasts of firm performance actually reflect any of these factors... View Details
      Keywords: Competition; Forecasting and Prediction; Industry Growth; Judgments; Performance; Valuation; Price; Quality; Innovation and Invention; Organizational Culture; Competency and Skills; Surveys
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      Groysberg, Boris, Paul Healy, Nitin Nohria, and George Serafeim. "What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?" Financial Analysts Journal 67, no. 4 (July–August 2011).
      • June 2011
      • Case

      Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises

      By: David Moss and Cole Bolton
      In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Institutions; Interest Rates; Policy
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      Moss, David, and Cole Bolton. "Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises." Harvard Business School Case 711-048, June 2011.
      • June 2011
      • Article

      Implicit Voice Theories: Taken-for-granted Rules of Self-censorship at Work

      By: J. R. Detert and Amy C. Edmondson
      This article examines, in a series of four studies, the nature and impact of implicit voice theories-largely taken-for-granted beliefs about when and why speaking up at work is risky or inappropriate. In Study 1, qualitative data from 190 interviews conducted in a... View Details
      Keywords: Spoken Communication; Interpersonal Communication; Employees; Managerial Roles; Organizational Culture; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior
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      Detert, J. R., and Amy C. Edmondson. "Implicit Voice Theories: Taken-for-granted Rules of Self-censorship at Work." Academy of Management Journal 54, no. 3 (June 2011): 461–488.
      • June 2011
      • Article

      Truth in Giving: Experimental Evidence on the Welfare Effects of Informed Giving to the Poor

      By: Christina Fong and Felix Oberholzer-Gee
      It is often difficult for donors to predict the value of charitable giving because they know little about the persons who receive their help. This concern is particularly acute when making contributions to organizations that serve heterogeneous populations. While we... View Details
      Keywords: Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Policy; Information; Knowledge Acquisition; Game Theory; Prejudice and Bias; Poverty; Welfare
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      Fong, Christina, and Felix Oberholzer-Gee. "Truth in Giving: Experimental Evidence on the Welfare Effects of Informed Giving to the Poor." Special Issue on Charitable Giving and Fundraising Journal of Public Economics 95, nos. 5-6 (June 2011): 436–444.
      • May 2011
      • Article

      Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 884–896.
      • April 2011
      • Article

      Strategies for Learning from Failure

      By: Amy C. Edmondson
      Many executives believe that all failure is bad (although it usually provides lessons)--and that learning from it is pretty straightforward. The author, a professor at Harvard Business School, thinks both beliefs are misguided. In organizational life, she says, some... View Details
      Keywords: Learning; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Leadership; Business Processes; Organizational Culture; Failure; Opportunities
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      Edmondson, Amy C. "Strategies for Learning from Failure." Harvard Business Review 89, no. 4 (April 2011).
      • March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
      • Case

      State Bank of India: Transforming a State Owned Giant

      By: Rajiv Lal and Rachna Tahilyani
      February 2011: O.P. Bhatt reflected contentedly on his five-year term as Chairman of State Bank of India (SBI), India's largest commercial bank. He had led SBI on a journey of transformation from an old, hierarchical, transaction oriented, government bank to a modern,... View Details
      Keywords: Transformation; Customer Relationship Management; Commercial Banking; Leading Change; Growth and Development Strategy; Marketing; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Banking Industry; India
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      Lal, Rajiv, and Rachna Tahilyani. "State Bank of India: Transforming a State Owned Giant." Harvard Business School Case 511-114, March 2011. (Revised April 2011.)
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
      Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
      • March 2011
      • Article

      Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?

      By: John Beshears and Katherine L. Milkman
      This paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out-of-consensus forecast of a company's quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect, she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out-of-consensus view on the company. Relative to an analyst who was... View Details
      Keywords: Escalation Of Commitment; Stock Market; Updating; Behavioral Economics; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Consumer Behavior; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Beshears, John, and Katherine L. Milkman. "Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?" Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 77, no. 3 (March 2011): 304–317.
      • February 2011 (Revised February 2011)
      • Supplement

      The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)

      By: Malcolm P. Baker and David Lane
      The courseware contains information on comparable firms and transactions as well as a forecasting model using the case data. View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Auctions; Market Transactions; Valuation; Service Industry
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      Baker, Malcolm P., and David Lane. "The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 211-712, February 2011. (Revised February 2011.)
      • January 2011 (Revised March 2011)
      • Case

      Predictive Biosciences

      By: Thomas R. Eisenmann, Jeffrey J. Bussgang and David Kiron
      A small cancer diagnostics start-up is deciding whether to acquire a laboratory to make and sell its bladder cancer test or build its own manufacturing and sales team. View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Factories, Labs, and Plants; Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Health Testing and Trials; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Development; Biotechnology Industry
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      Eisenmann, Thomas R., Jeffrey J. Bussgang, and David Kiron. "Predictive Biosciences." Harvard Business School Case 811-015, January 2011. (Revised March 2011.)
      • January 2011 (Revised January 2015)
      • Case

      Matrix Capital Management (A)

      By: Malcolm P. Baker and David Lane
      Ben Balbale, a partner at hedge fund Matrix Capital, must decide whether to exit their investment in Rovi Corporation, a company with a diverse portfolio of patents used primarily for digital interactive guides. Rovi's shares are up over 50% from the time Balbale... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Asset Management; Cash Flow; Stock Shares; Financial Markets; Investment Funds; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods; Strategy; Valuation; Financial Services Industry
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      Baker, Malcolm P., and David Lane. "Matrix Capital Management (A)." Harvard Business School Case 211-017, January 2011. (Revised January 2015.)
      • January 2011
      • Case

      The Risk-Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research

      By: Suraj Srinivasan and David Lane
      The case describes the Risk-Reward framework that Morgan Stanley analysts use as a systematic approach to communicate a broader range of fundamental insights about a company rather than the traditional single point estimates. The goal of the framework is to focus the... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Risk Management; Business Processes; Research; Valuation
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, and David Lane. "The Risk-Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research." Harvard Business School Case 111-011, January 2011.
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