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      • Faculty Publications  (600)

      Stock Market ExpectationsRemove Stock Market Expectations →

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      • spring 1989
      • Article

      The Changing Character of Stock Market Liquidity

      By: André Perold and James F. Gammill
      Keywords: Stocks; Markets; Financial Liquidity
      Citation
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      Perold, André, and James F. Gammill. "The Changing Character of Stock Market Liquidity." Journal of Portfolio Management (spring 1989): 13–18.
      • August 1987 (Revised December 1998)
      • Background Note

      Capital Market Myopia

      By: William A. Sahlman and Howard H. Stevenson
      Focuses attention on a phenomenon we call capital market myopia, a situation in which participants in the capital markets ignore the logical implications of their individual investment decisions. Viewed in isolation, each decision seems to make sense. When taken... View Details
      Keywords: Capital Markets
      Citation
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      Sahlman, William A., and Howard H. Stevenson. "Capital Market Myopia." Harvard Business School Background Note 288-005, August 1987. (Revised December 1998.)
      • 1987
      • Chapter

      On the Current State of the Stock Market Rationality Hypothesis

      By: Robert C. Merton
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Stocks; Mathematical Methods
      Citation
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      Merton, Robert C. "On the Current State of the Stock Market Rationality Hypothesis." In Macroeconomics and Finance: Essays in Honor of Franco Modigliani, edited by R. Dornbusch, S. Fischer, and J. Bossons. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1987.
      • January 1987
      • Article

      Dividend Behavior for the Aggregate Stock Market

      By: Terry A. Marsh and Robert C. Merton
      Keywords: Behavior; Stocks; Markets
      Citation
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      Marsh, Terry A., and Robert C. Merton. "Dividend Behavior for the Aggregate Stock Market." Journal of Business 60 (January 1987): 1–40.
      • 1987
      • Working Paper

      Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

      By: K. A. Froot
      Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Volatility
      Citation
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      Froot, K. A. "Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 2362, August 1987.
      • September 1986 (Revised November 1994)
      • Case

      Lotus Development Corp. Channel Choice: Direct vs. Distribution

      By: V. Kasturi Rangan
      Lotus Development Corp., the number one microsoftware firm has traditionally sold to its customers through a distributor-retail dealer network. In early 1986, the company is considering the option of selling direct to large corporate customers. Students are expected to... View Details
      Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Marketing Channels; Distribution Channels; Sales; Software; Information Technology Industry; United States
      Citation
      Educators
      Purchase
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      Rangan, V. Kasturi. "Lotus Development Corp. Channel Choice: Direct vs. Distribution." Harvard Business School Case 587-078, September 1986. (Revised November 1994.)
      • June 1986
      • Article

      Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality of Stock Market Prices

      By: Robert C. Merton and Terry A. Marsh
      Keywords: Stocks; Markets; Price
      Citation
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      Merton, Robert C., and Terry A. Marsh. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality of Stock Market Prices." American Economic Review 76, no. 3 (June 1986): 483–498.
      • February 1986 (Revised November 1992)
      • Case

      Novo Industri A/S--1981

      By: W. Carl Kester and Glynn Ferguson
      This small but rapidly growing Danish biochemical company must choose among several financing opportunities that include a convertible Eurobond, a rights offering in Denmark and an issue of new common shares in the United States. The case involves a broad range of... View Details
      Keywords: Capital Markets; Cost of Capital; Bonds; Stock Shares; Financing and Loans; Globalization; Biotechnology Industry; Chemical Industry; Denmark; United States
      Citation
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      Kester, W. Carl, and Glynn Ferguson. "Novo Industri A/S--1981." Harvard Business School Case 286-084, February 1986. (Revised November 1992.)
      • April 1985 (Revised September 1986)
      • Case

      CML Group, Inc.: Going Public (B)

      By: William A. Sahlman
      Contains a description of some issues confronting management of CML Group as the company progresses toward making an initial public offering. Among the issues and topics addressed in the case are: considerations in choosing an underwriting team, the initial public... View Details
      Keywords: Business or Company Management; Initial Public Offering; Financial Markets; Financial Strategy; Planning; Cost vs Benefits; Strategy; Entrepreneurship; Consumer Products Industry; Retail Industry
      Citation
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      Sahlman, William A. "CML Group, Inc.: Going Public (B)." Harvard Business School Case 285-092, April 1985. (Revised September 1986.)
      • January 1985 (Revised March 2003)
      • Case

      Conex do Brasil

      By: Christopher A. Bartlett and John Young
      Describes interactions between Brazilian local, Latin American regional, and USA headquarters staff during the three years after establishing a manufacturing subsidiary in Sao Paulo. In a highly protected national environment, a market entry plan is developed to meet... View Details
      Keywords: Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Resignation and Termination; Goals and Objectives; Market Entry and Exit; Operations; Performance Expectations; Opportunities; Corporate Strategy; Latin America; United States; Brazil
      Citation
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      Bartlett, Christopher A., and John Young. "Conex do Brasil." Harvard Business School Case 385-257, January 1985. (Revised March 2003.)
      • 1984
      • Chapter

      Macroeconomics and Finance: The Role of the Stock Market

      By: Stanley Fischer and Robert C. Merton
      Keywords: Macroeconomics; Financial Markets
      Citation
      Related
      Fischer, Stanley, and Robert C. Merton. "Macroeconomics and Finance: The Role of the Stock Market." In Essays on Macroeconomic Implications of Financial and Labor Markets and Political Processes. Vol. 21, edited by K. Brunner and A. H. Meltzer. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1984.
      • 1984
      • Working Paper

      Earnings Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for Rationality of Stock Market Prices

      By: Robert C. Merton and Terry A. Marsh
      Citation
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      Merton, Robert C., and Terry A. Marsh. "Earnings Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for Rationality of Stock Market Prices." Sloan School of Management Working Paper, No. 1559-84, April 1984.
      • 1983
      • Working Paper

      Aggregate Dividend Behavior and Its Implications for Tests of Stock Market Rationality

      By: Terry A. Marsh and Robert C. Merton
      Citation
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      Marsh, Terry A., and Robert C. Merton. "Aggregate Dividend Behavior and Its Implications for Tests of Stock Market Rationality." Sloan School of Management Working Paper, No. 1475-83, September 1983.
      • May 1983 (Revised December 1987)
      • Case

      Technical Data Corp.

      By: William A. Sahlman
      Describes a decision confronting the president of a small company about selling some or all of the shares in his company to another firm. Technical Data Corp. provides analytical services to professional bond market traders over a system of computer terminals operated... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Internet and the Web; Information Infrastructure; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Valuation; Negotiation Tactics; Mergers and Acquisitions; Corporate Strategy; Horizontal Integration; Information Industry; Service Industry
      Citation
      Educators
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      Sahlman, William A. "Technical Data Corp." Harvard Business School Case 283-072, May 1983. (Revised December 1987.)
      • Article

      Variance-Minimizing Monetary Policies with Lagged Price Adjustment and Rational Expectations

      By: Jerry R. Green and Seppo Honkapohja
      This paper considers a macroeconomic model with rational expectations in which prices are incompletely flexible. Markets therefore fail to clear. In such a model monetary policy is not neutral. The variance of real and nominal quantities and interest rates is sensitive... View Details
      Citation
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      Green, Jerry R., and Seppo Honkapohja. "Variance-Minimizing Monetary Policies with Lagged Price Adjustment and Rational Expectations." European Economic Review 20, nos. 1-3 (January 1983): 123–141.
      • May – June 1981
      • Article

      Is Your Stock Worth Its Market Price?

      By: W. E. Fruhan Jr. and Thomas R. Piper
      Keywords: Stocks; Price; Value
      Citation
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      Fruhan, W. E., Jr., and Thomas R. Piper. "Is Your Stock Worth Its Market Price?" Harvard Business Review 59, no. 3 (May–June 1981).
      • Article

      On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation

      By: Robert C. Merton
      Keywords: Markets
      Citation
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      Merton, Robert C. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation." Journal of Financial Economics 8, no. 4 (December 1980): 1–39.
      • September 1976 (Revised January 1977)
      • Case

      Del Norte Paper Co. (C)

      By: William A. Sahlman
      Designed to serve two roles: first, it provides a reasonably comprehensive description of an ongoing capital budgeting system for the international operations of a large American company. Second, it allows the student to focus upon and critically analyze a series of... View Details
      Keywords: Capital Budgeting; International Relations; Globalized Markets and Industries; Goals and Objectives; Service Delivery; Business Subsidiaries; Performance Evaluation; Performance Expectations; Financial Services Industry; Pulp and Paper Industry
      Citation
      Educators
      Purchase
      Related
      Sahlman, William A. "Del Norte Paper Co. (C)." Harvard Business School Case 177-036, September 1976. (Revised January 1977.)
      • spring 1974
      • Article

      The Optimality of a Competitive Stock Market

      By: Robert C. Merton and Marti G. Subrahmanyam
      Keywords: Competition; Stocks; Markets
      Citation
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      Merton, Robert C., and Marti G. Subrahmanyam. "The Optimality of a Competitive Stock Market." Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 5, no. 1 (spring 1974): 145–170.
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath

      By: Antonio Falato, Giovanni Favara and David Scharfstein
      We present evidence that pressure to maximize short-term stock prices and earnings leads banks to increase risk. We start by showing that banks increase risk when they transition from private to public ownership through a public listing or an acquisition. The increase... View Details
      Keywords: Ownership Type; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Banks and Banking; Transition; Price
      Citation
      Related
      Falato, Antonio, Giovanni Favara, and David Scharfstein. "Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath." Review of Financial Studies (forthcoming).
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