Mathematical Methods - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2010
Case

Playa Dorado

By: W. Earl Sasser

Playa Dorada Beach & Resort in Boca Raton, Florida, faces a growing seasonal demand for tennis services. The number of guests is expected to double in the next few years, and while the tennis facilities are a popular and well-promoted amenity at the resort, court space... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Expansion; Planning; Mathematical Methods; Price; Profit; Sales; Operations; Growth and Development Strategy; Marketing; Performance Capacity; Accommodations Industry; Florida

September 2010
Article

Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?

By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman

Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details

Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution; Goods and Commodities; Cost; Public Sector; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; United States

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November 2006
Background Note

Technical Game Theory Note #6: Multiple-Round Games and Reputations

By: Dennis A. Yao

Provides a game theory-based interpretation of reputations and reputation building. View Details

Keywords: Game Theory; Mathematical Methods; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Reputation; Debates; Strategy; Performance Consistency; Performance Improvement; Strategic Planning; Education Industry

December 2005 (Revised March 2007)
Case

Innovation and Collaboration at Merrill Lynch

By: Boris Groysberg and Ingrid Vargas

In the spring of 2005, Candace Browning, head of Global Securities Research and Economics at Merrill Lynch, led about 500 Merrill Lynch analysts worldwide in a collaborative effort to produce innovative research, most of them accustomed to working independently in... View Details

Keywords: Leadership; Groups and Teams; Management Teams; Decision Making; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Negotiation; Mathematical Methods; Strategy; Human Resources; Motivation and Incentives; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry

September 2018
Article

Aggregation of Consumer Ratings: An Application to Yelp.com

By: Weijia Dai, Ginger Jin, Jungmin Lee and Michael Luca

Because consumer reviews leverage the wisdom of the crowd, the way in which they are aggregated is a central decision faced by platforms. We explore this "rating aggregation problem" and offer a structural approach to solving it, allowing for (1) reviewers to vary in... View Details

Keywords: User Generated Content; Crowdsourcing; Yelp; Social and Collaborative Networks; Information; Internet and the Web; Learning; Mathematical Methods; E-commerce

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January 2008
Background Note

Index Options

By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford

The goal of this simulation is to understand the patterns in index option prices that are not predicted by the Black-Scholes model. In particular, the simulation focuses on two properties of options prices. First, at-the-money implied volatilities from index options... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Stock Options; Investment; Price; Profit; Risk Management; Mathematical Methods

January 2002 (Revised October 2007)
Case

Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., 2001

By: Joshua Musher and Andre F. Perold

Asset manager GMO underperforms the market during the 1996-2000 stock market bubble because of the focus on absolute risk. After suffering significant client withdrawals, performance again shines when the bubble collapses. Did they win the battle only to lose the war?... View Details

Keywords: Customers; Asset Management; Stocks; Investment; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty

October 1993 (Revised August 1996)
Background Note

Forecasting with Regression Analysis

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Provides an example of regression in one of its most important roles. Relating probabilistic forecasts based on past data to decision analysis. View Details

Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

September 2010
Supplement

Compass Maritime Services, LLC: Valuing Ships (CW)

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Albert W. Sheen

Tom Roberts, a founding partner of Compass Maritime Services, a New Jersey-based shipping research and consulting firm, has been asked by a new potential customer in May 2008 for advice on purchasing a capesize bulk carrier. After identifying a suitable ship with his... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Decisions; Microeconomics; Finance; Price; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Market Transactions; Partners and Partnerships; Mathematical Methods; Valuation; Consulting Industry; New Jersey

February 2007 (Revised January 2008)
Supplement

Multifactor Models (CW)

By: Malcolm P. Baker

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Cost of Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Performance Evaluation

November 2002 (Revised March 2010)
Case

The Newsprint Industry

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Nabil I. Al-Najjar and James Pyke

Describes the 1990s consolidation on the newsprint industry. Questions whether consolidation will ever deliver on its promise. Whereas some industry observers maintain that the effects of consolidation are already visible, others argue that further consolidation is... View Details

Keywords: Five Forces Framework; Duopoly and Oligopoly; Monopoly; Mathematical Methods; Competition; Consolidation; Pulp and Paper Industry

10 Jun 2013
Research & Ideas

How Numbers Talk to People

Thomas H. Davenport and Jinho Kim offer an introduction to the best methods for consuming data. In this excerpt, Davenport and Kim discuss multiple ways to tell a story with data, "the best way to communicate results to nonanalytical... View Details

May 2009 (Revised December 2009)
Teaching Note

Reliance Baking Soda: Optimizing Promotional Spending (Brief Case)

By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham

Teaching Note to Briefcase 4128 View Details

Keywords: Quantitative Analysis; Consumer Marketing; Marketing Planning; Product Management; Sales Promotions; Program Budgeting; Marketing Strategy; Marketing Channels; Mathematical Methods; Advertising; Budgets and Budgeting; Product Marketing; Communication Strategy

2010
Chapter

Facts and Fallacies about U.S. FDI in China

By: Lee Branstetter and C. Fritz Foley

Despite the rapid expansion of U.S.-China trade ties, the increase in U.S. FDI in China, and the expanding amount of economic research exploring these developments, a number of misconceptions distort the popular understanding of U.S. multinationals in China. In this... View Details

Keywords: Expansion; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Mathematical Methods; Multinational Firms and Management; China; United States

2007
Working Paper

Optimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign's willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming... View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Liquidity; International Finance; Emerging Markets; Mathematical Methods

Fourth Quarter 2007
Article

Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk

By: Dale . F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to measure, analyze, and manage sovereign risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Investment; Sovereign Finance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

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November 1999 (Revised November 2000)
Case

International Business Machines Corporation (C)

By: David F. Hawkins

A financial analyst is examining IBM's 1998 tax note to understand better how the company's 1998 tax note was determined. Teaching purpose: Illustrates deferred tax accounting. View Details

Keywords: History; Earnings Management; Taxation; Decision Making; Business Model; Business Earnings; Information Infrastructure; Mathematical Methods; Private Sector; Accounting Audits; Accounting Industry; Computer Industry

January 2010 (Revised October 2011)
Case

The Congressional Oversight Panel's Valuation of the TARP Warrants (A)

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

The Congressional Oversight Panel wants to value the warrants issued to the government in connection with the TARP investments of 2008, in order to increase the transparency of options repurchases. The case describes the methodology used to value the warrants. Students... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Asset Pricing; Financial Instruments; Investment; Business and Government Relations; Mathematical Methods; Valuation; Banking Industry; Public Administration Industry; United States

April 2012
Article

Bouncing Out of the Banking System: An Empirical Analysis of Involuntary Bank Account Closures

By: Dennis Campbell, F. Asis Martinez-Jerez and Peter Tufano

Using a new database, we document the factors that relate to the extent of involuntary consumer bank account closure resulting from excessive overdraft activity. Consumers who have accounts involuntarily closed for overdraft activity may have limited or no access to... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Customers; Social Issues; Outcome or Result; Budgets and Budgeting; Forecasting and Prediction; Competition; Banks and Banking; Policy; Personal Characteristics; Credit; Employment; United States

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July 2010
Supplement

Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis (CW)

By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery

Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability... View Details

Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Decisions; Strategic Planning; Price; Partners and Partnerships; Cost; Demand and Consumers; Revenue; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Measurement and Metrics

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