Publications

Educators

June 1999
Article

Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA

By: F. Frei and P. Harker

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory

May 1990
Background Note

Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide

By: Robert J. Dolan

Presents a non-technical description of the conjoint analysis methodology. Discusses the process by which such a study is done and cites areas of application. View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

Educators

18 Sep 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Using Models to Persuade

Keywords: by Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam

08 Jun 2009
Research & Ideas

The Return of the Salesman

in an economy like this, such as car dealerships, for instance, which have closed across the country. And, of course, customers are likely to negotiate for better terms. Q: What are you working on now? A: I'm writing a history of the beginnings of the economic View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Retail

28 Oct 2024
Op-Ed

Latino Voters Have Grown More Politically Divided. That’s Not Surprising.

asked, if each group voted like they did in the last election, who would win the next one? “Our analysis of data combining voters’ opinions with party platforms showed that where voters lead, parties tend to follow.” It turns out that this kind of View Details

Keywords: by Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro

19 Jan 2022
In Practice

7 Trends to Watch in 2022

As 2022 gets underway we asked our faculty to highlight some trends worth watching in the coming year. Ariel Stern: A new future for digital health care While 2020 and 2021 were years of rapid innovation and deployment of new health care technologies and delivery... View Details

Keywords: by HBS News

28 May 2013
Research & Ideas

Can LEGO Snap Together a Future in Asia?

Both the managers and the students had to consider areas of potential risk for LEGO in Asia, including: Uncertainty of market growth forecasts. LEGO senior director John Kelley argues in the case that to supply the most optimistic sales View Details

Keywords: by Kim Girard; Entertainment & Recreation

2023
Working Paper

Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment

By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou

We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details

Keywords: Research and Development; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Pharmaceutical Industry

Read Now

October–December 2022
Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction

Register to Read

April 2011
Teaching Note

Prediction Markets at Google (TN)

Teaching Note for 607088. View Details

Keywords: Interests; Forecasting and Prediction; Market Participation; Information Technology Industry

September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
Exercise

Exercise on Estimation

By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville

This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident. View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Personal Characteristics

winter 1996
Article

The Market Pricing of Cash Flow Forecasts: Discounted Cash Flow vs. the Method of Comparables

By: S. N. Kaplan and R. S. Ruback

Keywords: Price; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

2017
Working Paper

Learning by Doing: The Value of Experience and the Origins of Skill for Mutual Fund Managers

By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt

Learning by doing matters for professional investors. We develop a new methodology to show that mutual fund managers outperform in industries where they have obtained experience on the job. The key to our identification strategy is that we look "inside" funds and... View Details

Keywords: Fund Managers; Experience and Expertise; Performance; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

16 Oct 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 16, 2018

methods, such as multiple-case inductive studies and traditional methods of causal inference. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55043 Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

07 Jul 2009
First Look

First Look: July 7

Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts (revised) Authors:Richard Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal, and Suraj Srinivasan Abstract We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

10 May 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Consumer Inertia and Market Power

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay and Marc Remer

Article

Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data

By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend

This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction