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      • Faculty Publications  (567)

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      • Article

      On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills

      By: Robert C. Merton and Roy D. Henriksson
      Keywords: Investment; Performance; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Merton, Robert C., and Roy D. Henriksson. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills." Journal of Business 54, no. 4 (October 1981): 513–533.
      • July 1981
      • Article

      On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts

      By: Robert C. Merton
      Keywords: Investment; Performance; Theory; Value; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets
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      Merton, Robert C. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts." Journal of Business 54, no. 3 (July 1981): 363–406.
      • May 1981 (Revised June 1994)
      • Case

      Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (A)

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Apparel and Accessories Industry
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (A)." Harvard Business School Case 181-122, May 1981. (Revised June 1994.)
      • May 1981
      • Supplement

      Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (B)

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Apparel and Accessories Industry
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 181-123, May 1981.
      • March 1980 (Revised February 1987)
      • Case

      Sweco, Inc. (A)

      By: Michael E. Porter and George S. Yip
      Describes Sweco's decision about whether to enter the mud-processing equipment industry (used in oil well drilling). This is an internal entry decision, and the case describes Sweco's existing businesses as well as the mud-processing industry and competitors. The case... View Details
      Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Analytics and Data Science; Market Entry and Exit; Competition
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      Porter, Michael E., and George S. Yip. "Sweco, Inc. (A)." Harvard Business School Case 380-167, March 1980. (Revised February 1987.)
      • January 1980 (Revised April 1994)
      • Case

      New Balance Athletic Shoes

      By: Kim B. Clark
      Faced with growth exceeding 100% per year, James Davis, president of New Balance, must decide how to meet the need for additional capacity. Several factors contribute to a climate of extreme uncertainty. Several options are considered, ranging from a second shift to... View Details
      Keywords: Factories, Labs, and Plants; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Information; Growth Management; Organizational Design; Performance Capacity; Risk and Uncertainty; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Republic of Ireland
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      Clark, Kim B. "New Balance Athletic Shoes." Harvard Business School Case 680-110, January 1980. (Revised April 1994.)
      • May 1979 (Revised August 2013)
      • Background Note

      Financial Analysis of Real Property Investments

      By: William J. Poorvu
      Develops a conceptual framework for financial analysis of real estate investments, taking into consideration the necessity for baseline data, project trends, and forecast discontinuities. View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Trends; Real Estate Industry; Financial Services Industry
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      Poorvu, William J. "Financial Analysis of Real Property Investments." Harvard Business School Background Note 379-193, May 1979. (Revised August 2013.)
      • January 1978
      • Background Note

      Regression and Forecasting Using the AQD Package

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Regression and Forecasting Using the AQD Package." Harvard Business School Background Note 178-095, January 1978.
      • January 1977 (Revised July 1985)
      • Case

      Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)

      By: Steven C. Wheelwright
      Keywords: Planning; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Wheelwright, Steven C. "Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)." Harvard Business School Case 677-150, January 1977. (Revised July 1985.)
      • 01 Jan 1977
      • Conference Presentation

      Short Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts: Optimal Use of National Weather Service Data

      By: James K. Sebenius and Richard Lehman
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Research; Business and Government Relations; Energy Industry
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      Sebenius, James K., and Richard Lehman. "Short Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts: Optimal Use of National Weather Service Data." Paper presented at the American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, American Geophysical Union, January 01, 1977.
      • November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
      • Case

      Science Technology Co.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details
      Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Science Technology Co." Harvard Business School Case 275-058, November 1974. (Revised May 1994.)
      • January 1972
      • Background Note

      Note on Forecasting

      By: Paul W. Marshall
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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      Marshall, Paul W. "Note on Forecasting." Harvard Business School Background Note 172-218, January 1972.
      • April 1966
      • Article

      A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression

      By: D. B. Crane and James R. Crotty
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods
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      Crane, D. B., and James R. Crotty. "A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression." Management Science 13, no. 8 (April 1966).
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces

      By: Flora Feng, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan and Cait Lamberton
      It has long been a mantra of marketing practice that, particularly in low-involvement situations, spokespeople should be physically attractive. This paper suggests there is a higher probability of gaining fame and influence (i.e., celebrity potential) than is captured... View Details
      Keywords: Personal Characteristics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing
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      Feng, Flora, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan, and Cait Lamberton. "An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) (forthcoming). (Pre-published online February 12, 2025.)
      • Research Summary

      Business History

      By: Walter A. Friedman
      Walter Friedman serves as co-editor of Business History Review. He has a special interest in the history of marketing and personal selling, and is author of Birth of a Salesman: The Transformation of Selling in America (Harvard, 2004). He is also interested in the... View Details
      • Research Summary

      Competitive Dynamics of the Textile-Apparel-Retail Channel

      By: Janice H. Hammond
      Janice H. Hammond established in 1991 (with Frederick H. Abernathy and John Dunlop of Harvard University and David Weil of Boston University) the Harvard Center for Textile and Apparel Research. Funding provided by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation has supported the... View Details
      • Research Summary

      Corporate Control and Valuation

      By: Richard S. Ruback
      Richard S. Ruback's research and course development focus on applied corporate finance-in particular, corporate control transactions and valuation. His research on corporate control has yielded case studies on major transactions, such as the View Details
      • Teaching Interest

      Decision Making Under Uncertainty

      By: David E. Bell

      Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details

      • Teaching Interest

      Executive Education: Finance for Senior Executives

      By: Malcolm P. Baker

      Finance for Senior Executives provides the frameworks to strategically use financial resources and position your company for future success. By examining corporate finance from both internal and external perspectives, this HBS Executive Education View Details

      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      Human-Algorithm Collaboration with Private Information: Naïve Advice Weighting Behavior and Mitigation

      By: Maya Balakrishnan, Kris Ferreira and Jordan Tong
      Even if algorithms make better predictions than humans on average, humans may sometimes have private information which an algorithm does not have access to that can improve performance. How can we help humans effectively use and adjust recommendations made by... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Digital Marketing
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      Balakrishnan, Maya, Kris Ferreira, and Jordan Tong. "Human-Algorithm Collaboration with Private Information: Naïve Advice Weighting Behavior and Mitigation." Management Science (forthcoming). (Pre-published online March 24, 2025.)
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