probability - Publications - Faculty & Research

2024
Case

Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations (A)

By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian

This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Negotiation; Environmental Regulation; International Relations; Leadership

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26 Oct 2021
Research & Ideas

What Companies Want Most in a CEO: A Good Listener

involvement in mergers and acquisitions. Larger firms were more likely to include social skills in their job-search requirements. Being a multinational corporation was associated with a 4.7 percentage point increase in the probability of... View Details

Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald

12 Sep 2022
Research & Ideas

When Experts Play It Too Safe: Innovation Lessons from a NASA Experiment

"Imagine what you want to create and where you want to be 50 years from now—little incremental improvements probably won't get you there." Novel ideas could seem even riskier to experts because they challenge their competence and... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Aerospace

21 Aug 2013
Research & Ideas

What Went Wrong at J.C. Penney?

down from almost $18 billion to $17 billion. That comes out to sales of about $150 per square foot, which is probably in the lower third of department store sales, if not the lowest. In contrast, competitors like Macy's and Kohl's have... View Details

Keywords: by Jim Aisner; Retail

09 Jul 2020
Research & Ideas

It’s Time to Reset Decision-Making in Your Organization

the full spectrum of possible outcomes and assign probabilities to each. Keep in mind that “possibilities always exist.” Even in the worst situations, there are opportunities and choices to be made. Thinking about strategy A clear sense... View Details

Keywords: by Boris Groysberg and Sarah Abbott

04 Feb 2002
Research & Ideas

How To Do Business in Islamic Countries

Interest is prohibited. "This is the probably the thing that is most often identified with Islamic finance. Back in the time of the prophet Mohammed, some of the most rapacious individuals were the moneylenders; and so as a response... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

01 Jun 2024
News

Quantum Leap

“This is the first new kind of computer in 75 years,” says John Levy (MBA 1979), CEO of the quantum computing startup SEEQC. “And we’re building it on a chip!” Strolling through his company’s design and testing facility in Elmsford, New York, Levy looks less like a... View Details

Keywords: Alexander Gelfand; photographed by Chris Sorensen; quantum computing; innovation; leadership; Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing; Manufacturing

12 Aug 2019
Research & Ideas

How Scale Changes a Manager's Responsibilities

employees, founding leaders confront an important reality: It’s time to let go. It’s simply impossible to be plugged into everything. At this stage, you are probably managing managers, and more than ever have to empower your leaders to,... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Austin

14 Dec 2007
Op-Ed

When Your Product Becomes a Commodity

profits? If you've heard it, you've probably wondered if it was just a convenient excuse or if the manager had a valid point. The truth is, even when a raw material has no value added and quality standards are set by law or the industry,... View Details

Keywords: by John Quelch

06 Feb 2020
Research & Ideas

What We Learned from Reading Jeff Bezos’ Patents

role in innovation, and those who did underplayed the depth of that role. “Jeff Bezos is not coming up with every new product. He is probably not coming up with the vast, vast majority of them,” one analyst stated. However, our findings... View Details

Keywords: by Tricia Gregg and Boris Groysberg; Retail

03 Oct 2005
Research & Ideas

The Truck Driver Who Reinvented Shipping

$160 million. When he set out to gamble on his idea of containerized cargo, McLean probably did not realize that he was revolutionizing an industry. McLean's vision gave the shipping industry the jolt that it needed to survive for the... View Details

Keywords: by Anthony J. Mayo & Nitin Nohria; Manufacturing; Transportation; Aerospace

Web

Research - Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability

fintech platform, the authors find that, compared to actual outcomes of the fintech platform’s model, the counterfactual outcomes based on a “traditional model” used for regulatory reporting purposes would result in a 60% higher View Details

15 Nov 2022
Op-Ed

Why TikTok Is Beating YouTube for Eyeball Time (It’s Not Just the Dance Videos)

YouTube’s $28.8 billion. It will probably not be able to command that kind of revenue without going outside its present niche. “TikTok may surprise us with innovation in unexpected directions. In particular, it could build on the devotion... View Details

Keywords: by John Deighton and Leora Kornfeld

14 Aug 2006
HBS Case

On Managing with Bobby Knight and “Coach K”

approach to teaching defensive positioning drills was probably more effective than if Coach K had come in for half a day and tried to inspire us to keep our butts down and our palms out." On the classroom board, Snook draws three... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Sports

04 May 2015
Research & Ideas

Need to Solve a Problem? Take a Break From Collaborating

participants were undergraduates who needed pocket money. "Generally speaking, these were students from northeastern universities, all of whom are relatively smart, so we're not talking about the average population," Bernstein says. "But actually, that's... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Video Game; Web Services

07 Jan 2019
Research & Ideas

The Better Way to Forecast the Future

Grushka-Cockayne, that executives should adopt a similar approach when it comes to using probability forecasts of business-critical issues; for example, the likelihood that product demand will increase by a given percentage next quarter.... View Details

Keywords: by Roberta Holland; Air Transportation; Transportation

30 May 2005
Research & Ideas

Six Steps for Making Your Threat Credible

your best interest to follow through—yet you probably made the threat at a point when the other side doubted your resolve. After all, if it were obvious that you were ready to walk away, you wouldn't have had to threaten at all! As this... View Details

Keywords: by Deepak Malhotra

Web

Career Re-Entry & Flexible Work - Alumni

The more people who know, the greater your chances of finding fresh leads, insights, and ideas. Conduct informational interviews Return to your roots and remember to conduct interviews that may not (or probably will not) lead to a job,... View Details

31 Jul 2023
News

Striving for Imperfection

about how to secure your shoe. The thing in organizations is to remember to leave enough time and space so that people have time to express their curiosity and to think about other approaches than, for example, tying something with a double bow. I think you’re View Details

Keywords: Management of Companies and Enterprises; Management

15 Dec 2023
News

The Musts of 2023

rights. And his big conclusion was that there isn't enough money in the world to change a society that doesn't respect women. That this is something that happens through mass communications. And I think it's probably one of the reasons... View Details

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