Publications

June 2007
Article

Does Employment Protection Reduce Productivity? Evidence from U.S. States

By: David H Autor, William R. Kerr and Adriana D. Kugler

Theory predicts that mandated employment protections may reduce productivity by distorting production choices. Firms facing (non-Coasean) worker dismissal costs will curtail hiring below efficient levels and retain unproductive workers, both of which should affect... View Details

Keywords: Theory; Production; Selection and Staffing; Cost; Employment; Capital; Performance Productivity; United States

04 Feb 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Risk Preferences and Misconduct: Evidence from Politicians

Keywords: by Dylan Minor; Public Administration; Financial Services

25 Sep 2016
News

This company raised minimum wage to $70,000 — and it helped business

06 Apr 2021
Video

A Simple Strategy for Happiness

September 2020 (Revised September 2021)
Case

Student Success at Georgia State University (A)

By: Michael W. Toffel, Robin Mendelson and Julia Kelley

Georgia State University had developed a reputation for driving student success by nearly doubling its graduation rate for students of all racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic backgrounds. It did so while growing its student body and the proportion of Black/African... View Details

Educators

June 2005
Article

Inflation, Openness, and Exchange Rate Regimes: The Quest for Short-Term Commitment

By: Laura Alfaro

This paper further tests Romer's (1993) extension of Kydland and Prescott's (1977) predictions for dynamic-inconsistency problems in open economies. In a panel data set of developed and developing countries from 1973 to 1998, I find that openness does not play a role... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economy; Currency Exchange Rate; Developing Countries and Economies; Inflation and Deflation

April 5, 2021
Article

Defining a Post-Pandemic Channel Strategy

By: Frank V. Cespedes

Companies have experienced a surge of online orders during the pandemic. As the crisis eases, leaders need to decide whether the shift to e-commerce is a permanent “new normal” or a temporary increase. Across sectors, forecasts aimed at answering this question form the... View Details

Keywords: Health Pandemics; Marketing Channels; Strategy; Resource Allocation; E-commerce

Register to Read

August 2020
Article

Lone Wolves in Competitive Equilibria

By: Ravi Jagadeesan, Scott Duke Kominers and Ross Rheingans-Yoo

This paper develops a class of equilibrium-independent predictions of competitive equilibrium with indivisibilities. Specifically, we prove an analogue of the “Lone Wolf Theorem” of classical matching theory, showing that when utility is perfectly transferable, any... View Details

Keywords: Indivisibilities; Matching; Lone Wolf Theorem; Marketplace Matching; Theory

July 1999
Article

Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: Do Ability and Portfolio Complexity Matter

By: Michael B. Clement

Prior studies have identified systematic and time persistent differences in analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy, but have not explained why the differences exist. Using the I/B/E/S Detail History database, this study finds that forecast accuracy is positively... View Details

Keywords: Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Experience and Expertise

Program

Competing in the Age of AI—Virtual

will delve into diverse applications of AI, machine learning, predictive modeling, and data science; explore network effects and platform strategies; and learn how to build an AI factory that enables your company to compete successfully... View Details

Article

The Counterfeit Self: The Deceptive Costs of Faking It

By: Francesca Gino, Michael I. Norton and Dan Ariely

Although people buy counterfeit products to signal positive traits, we show that wearing counterfeit products makes individuals feel less authentic and increases their likelihood of both behaving dishonestly and judging others as unethical. In four experiments,... View Details

Keywords: Judgments; Ethics; Brands and Branding; Product; Behavior; Personal Characteristics

2023
Working Paper

How People Use Statistics

By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Microeconomics; Mathematical Methods; Behavioral Finance

15 May 2016
News

Stop picking on the GDP

January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
Case

Forecasting the Great Depression

By: Walter A. Friedman

What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details

Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis

Educators

March 2014
Article

Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry

SSRN

2012
Working Paper

Prominent Job Advertisements, Group Learning and Wage Dispersion

By: Julio J. Rotemberg

A model is presented in which people base their labor search strategy on the average wage and the average unemployment duration of people who belong to their peer group. It is shown that, if the distribution of wage offers is not stationary so lower wage offers tend to... View Details

Keywords: Wages; Job Offer; Job Search; Advertising

27 Feb 2019
HBS Seminar

David Robinson, Fuqua School of Business at Duke University

10 Feb 2022
News

Opinion: If Your Job Doesn’t Give You Purposeful Work, You Owe It to Yourself to Join the ‘Great Reshuffle’

January 2018
Article

Innovation Incentives and Biomarkers

By: Ariel Dora Stern, Brian M. Alexander and Amitabh Chandra

Previously, we have discussed the importance of economic incentives in shaping markets for precision medicines. Here we consider incentives for biomarker development, including discovery and establishment. Biomarkers can reveal valuable information regarding diagnosis... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Innovation and Invention; Research and Development; Markets