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      UncertaintyRemove Uncertainty →

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      • July 2003
      • Article

      Probabilistic Representation of Complexity

      By: Nabil I Al-Najjar, Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Emre Ozdenoren
      We study individuals' behavior in an environment that is deterministic, but too complex to permit tractable deterministic representation. Under mild conditions, behavior is represented by a unique probabilistic model in which the agent's inability to think through all... View Details
      Keywords: Complexity; Behavior; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Planning
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      Al-Najjar, Nabil I., Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, and Emre Ozdenoren. "Probabilistic Representation of Complexity." Journal of Economic Theory 111, no. 1 (July 2003): 49–87.
      • 2003
      • Chapter

      Managing the Risk of Learning: Psychological Safety in Work Teams

      By: Amy C. Edmondson
      Keywords: Groups and Teams; Learning; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Safety; Social Psychology
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      Edmondson, Amy C. "Managing the Risk of Learning: Psychological Safety in Work Teams." In International Handbook of Organizational Teamwork, edited by M. West. London: Blackwell Publishing, 2003.
      • May 2003
      • Article

      Managing the Sources of Uncertainty: Matching Process and Context in Software Development

      By: Alan MacCormack and Roberto Verganti
      Keywords: Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Applications and Software; Research and Development; Technology Industry
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      MacCormack, Alan, and Roberto Verganti. "Managing the Sources of Uncertainty: Matching Process and Context in Software Development." Journal of Product Innovation Management 20 (May 2003): 217–232.
      • March 2003 (Revised June 2003)
      • Case

      Risk Arbitrage: Abbott Labs and Alza (A)

      By: George C. Chacko, Randolph B. Cohen, Marc Chennault and Andrew Kuhlman
      A hedge fund is trying to decide whether to capitalize on a seeming risk arbitrage opportunity that exists during the Abbott Labs acquisition of ALZA. View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Mergers and Acquisitions; Investment Funds
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      Chacko, George C., Randolph B. Cohen, Marc Chennault, and Andrew Kuhlman. "Risk Arbitrage: Abbott Labs and Alza (A)." Harvard Business School Case 203-003, March 2003. (Revised June 2003.)
      • February 2003 (Revised March 2007)
      • Case

      Safe to Say at Prudential Financial

      By: Amy C. Edmondson and Corey B. Hajim
      The CEO initiated a cultural change process at Prudential Financial to support a major business reorientation. Prudential, historically a privately held ("mutual") insurance company, went public in 2001. The cultural change was intended to prepare the organization to... View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Private Ownership; Going Public; Transformation; Organizational Culture
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      Edmondson, Amy C., and Corey B. Hajim. "Safe to Say at Prudential Financial." Harvard Business School Case 603-093, February 2003. (Revised March 2007.)
      • February 2003 (Revised October 2004)
      • Background Note

      Antamini Simulation Model

      By: Peter Tufano
      Antamini is a simulation of the value of an investment project whose outcome is uncertain. This case describes the situation facing a natural resource firm as it contemplates bidding on a copper mine in Peru. The bidder faces uncertainties about the ore deposit size... View Details
      Keywords: Valuation; Auctions; Investment; Mining; Mining Industry; Peru
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      Tufano, Peter. "Antamini Simulation Model." Harvard Business School Background Note 203-083, February 2003. (Revised October 2004.)
      • February 2003 (Revised May 2003)
      • Case

      Mobile Energy Services Company

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Aldo Sesia
      When Al "Chainsaw" Dunlap became CEO of the Scott Paper Co., the company owned a large, vertically integrated production facility in Mobile, Alabama. Dunlap sold part of the production facility, a cogeneration power plant (later known as Mobile Energy Services Co.), to... View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Risk and Uncertainty; Contracts; Agreements and Arrangements; Investment; Projects; Vertical Integration; Energy Sources; Bonds; Ownership; Restructuring; Energy Industry; Alabama
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Aldo Sesia. "Mobile Energy Services Company." Harvard Business School Case 203-061, February 2003. (Revised May 2003.)
      • February 2003 (Revised January 2006)
      • Case

      AIT Group Plc

      By: G. Felda Hardymon, Josh Lerner and Ann Leamon
      A U.S. venture capital firm has just learned that the deal structure for purchasing an illiquid U.K. software firm is unacceptable to institutional investors. The group must decide if it still wants to go through with the deal. This decision hinges on whether the... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Mergers and Acquisitions; Venture Capital; Financial Condition; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Making; Financial Services Industry; United States; United Kingdom
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      Hardymon, G. Felda, Josh Lerner, and Ann Leamon. "AIT Group Plc." Harvard Business School Case 803-104, February 2003. (Revised January 2006.)
      • February 2003 (Revised January 2004)
      • Case

      Mission to Mars (A)

      By: Alan D. MacCormack and Jay Wynn
      This case is set in spring 2000, several months after two successive, failed missions to the planet Mars. Students are asked to evaluate the reasons for these failures in the context of NASA's "Faster, Better, Cheaper" program, which was initiated in 1992. They are... View Details
      Keywords: Failure; Change Management; Innovation Strategy; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Projects; Management; Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Aerospace Industry; Technology Industry
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      MacCormack, Alan D., and Jay Wynn. "Mission to Mars (A)." Harvard Business School Case 603-083, February 2003. (Revised January 2004.)
      • February 2003
      • Article

      Which Ties Matter When? The Contingent Effects of Interorganizational Partnerships on IPO Success

      By: Ranjay Gulati and M. Higgins
      This paper investigates the contingent value of interorganizational relationships at the time of a young firm's initial public offering (IPO). We compare the signaling value to young firms of having ties with two types of interorganizational partnerships: endorsement... View Details
      Keywords: Interorganizatonal Relationships; Networks; Venture Capital; Initial Public Offering; Entrepreneurship; Biotechnology Industry
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      Gulati, Ranjay, and M. Higgins. "Which Ties Matter When? The Contingent Effects of Interorganizational Partnerships on IPO Success." Strategic Management Journal 24, no. 2 (February 2003): 127–144.
      • January 2003 (Revised March 2003)
      • Case

      Southwest Airlines 2002: An Industry Under Siege

      By: James L. Heskett
      The company's management is faced with long-term questions regarding the rate and manner of growth in the wake of the 9/11 attacks and general industry malaise. View Details
      Keywords: Cost; Product; Risk and Uncertainty; Growth and Development; Air Transportation Industry
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      Heskett, James L. "Southwest Airlines 2002: An Industry Under Siege." Harvard Business School Case 803-133, January 2003. (Revised March 2003.)
      • January 2003 (Revised March 2004)
      • Case

      Silverado (A)

      By: Jan W. Rivkin and Charles J. Woodard
      Silverado has raised $50 million and launched its first product: an Internet-based trivia game with innovative software. In a highly uncertain environment, the young management team must decide whether to continue developing the product and whether to branch out into... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Technological Innovation; Strategic Planning; Internet and the Web; Decision Choices and Conditions; Product Launch; Business Strategy; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Rivkin, Jan W., and Charles J. Woodard. "Silverado (A)." Harvard Business School Case 703-441, January 2003. (Revised March 2004.)
      • 2003
      • Working Paper

      The Risk Tolerance of International Investors

      By: Kenneth A. Froot and Paul G. J. O'Connell
      Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance; Asset Pricing; Investment
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      Froot, Kenneth A., and Paul G. J. O'Connell. "The Risk Tolerance of International Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 04-034, January 2004. (Also NBER Working Paper No. 10157, December 2003.)
      • December 2002 (Revised January 2004)
      • Case

      Basel II: Assessing the Default and Loss Characteristics of Project Finance Loans (A)

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Aldo Sesia
      In June 1999, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision announced plans to revise the capital standards for banks. The Basel Committee believed that project loans were significantly riskier than corporate loans and, therefore, warranted higher capital charges under... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Project Finance; Financing and Loans; Projects; Standards; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Aldo Sesia. "Basel II: Assessing the Default and Loss Characteristics of Project Finance Loans (A)." Harvard Business School Case 203-035, December 2002. (Revised January 2004.)
      • December 2002 (Revised December 2017)
      • Background Note

      Teaching Old Companies New Tricks: The Challenge of Managing New Streams Within the Mainstream

      By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter
      Describes the challenge of starting new ventures or new activities in established companies, especially if they diverge from the mainstream of ongoing commitments. Fledgling ventures require a different kind of management that acknowledges their uncertainty, intensity,... View Details
      Keywords: Business Units; Teaching; Entrepreneurship; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Business or Company Management; Organizations; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Corporate Strategy
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      Kanter, Rosabeth Moss. "Teaching Old Companies New Tricks: The Challenge of Managing New Streams Within the Mainstream." Harvard Business School Background Note 303-083, December 2002. (Revised December 2017.)
      • December 2002
      • Article

      The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty

      By: K. A. Froot and S. Posner
      Keywords: Catastrophe Risk; Corporate Finance; Cost Of Capital; Banking And Insurance; Asset Pricing; Hedging; Banking; Insurance; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Policy; Risk Management; Natural Disasters; Insurance Industry
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      Froot, K. A., and S. Posner. "The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty." Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Theory 27, no. 2 (December 2002): 153–165. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 8106, February 2001.)
      • November 2002 (Revised February 2009)
      • Teaching Note

      Value Retail (TN)

      By: Arthur I Segel and Ani M Vartanian
      Teaching Note for (9-803-008). View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Risk and Uncertainty; Performance Effectiveness; Brands and Branding; Planning; Strategy; Luxury; Milan
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      Segel, Arthur I., and Ani M Vartanian. "Value Retail (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 803-081, November 2002. (Revised February 2009.)
      • October 2002 (Revised December 2003)
      • Case

      Collabrys, Inc. (A)-The Evolution of a Startup

      By: Dorothy A. Leonard and Brian DeLacey
      The CEO of a two-year-old start-up must now decide whether to become a technology provider or a service agency. In a time of enormous uncertainty about the viability of various business models for Internet-delivered services and products, Collabrys has survived the... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Internet and the Web; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Corporate Strategy; Technological Innovation; Cost vs Benefits; Partners and Partnerships; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Corporate Finance; United States
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      Leonard, Dorothy A., and Brian DeLacey. "Collabrys, Inc. (A)-The Evolution of a Startup." Harvard Business School Case 603-064, October 2002. (Revised December 2003.)
      • September 2002 (Revised October 2002)
      • Case

      Managing Knowledge and Learning at NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)

      By: Dorothy A. Leonard and David Kiron
      Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) faces a serious loss of knowledge--both because of the "faster, better, cheaper" mandate for Mars missions and from the retirement of key personnel. An extensive knowledge management system for NASA/JPL includes formal knowledge-capture... View Details
      Keywords: Knowledge Management; Knowledge Dissemination; Leadership Development; Internet and the Web; Risk and Uncertainty; Organizational Culture; Retirement; Human Resources; Human Capital
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      Leonard, Dorothy A., and David Kiron. "Managing Knowledge and Learning at NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)." Harvard Business School Case 603-062, September 2002. (Revised October 2002.)
      • September 2002
      • Case

      Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand

      By: H. Kent Bowen and Jonathan P Groberg
      Align Technology is a four-year-old medical products company that has invented a new product requiring new manufacturing processes. Demand for the new product has grown more slowly than initial forecasts predicted, and the cost structure is preventing the company from... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Problems and Challenges; Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Sales; Demand and Consumers; Production; Health Industry
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      Bowen, H. Kent, and Jonathan P Groberg. "Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand." Harvard Business School Case 603-058, September 2002.
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