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      • October 1990 (Revised May 1994)
      • Case

      Confederated Pulp & Paper

      By: David E. Bell
      A rewritten version of an old case that updates the dates and prices and simplifies the economics. The issue is still one of determining a suitable inventory of wood for the mill to last through the winter. View Details
      Keywords: History; Supply Chain Management; Spending; Forecasting and Prediction; Economic Growth; Information Management; Pulp and Paper Industry
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      Bell, David E. "Confederated Pulp & Paper." Harvard Business School Case 191-065, October 1990. (Revised May 1994.)
      • June 1990 (Revised January 1993)
      • Case

      Dynatronics, Inc. (Abridged)

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      Provides an opportunity to evaluate an investment in a new product line in strategic, competitive, organizational, and economic terms. The economic analysis involves an estimation of the relevant cash flows and discounting them at an appropriate hurdle rate. View Details
      Keywords: Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Capital Budgeting
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Dynatronics, Inc. (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 290-064, June 1990. (Revised January 1993.)
      • May 1990
      • Background Note

      Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide

      By: Robert J. Dolan
      Presents a non-technical description of the conjoint analysis methodology. Discusses the process by which such a study is done and cites areas of application. View Details
      Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Dolan, Robert J. "Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide." Harvard Business School Background Note 590-059, May 1990.
      • Article

      Measuring the Effectiveness of Competition in Defense Procurement: A Survey of the Empirical Literature

      By: James J. Anton and Dennis A. Yao
      This article surveys the literature that has attempted to measure competition's effects on defense procurement. The focus is on conceptual underpinnings of models rather than technical aspects of estimation procedures. While providing valuable insight, the models are... View Details
      Keywords: Performance Effectiveness; Competition; Surveys; Value; Economics; Forecasting and Prediction; Programs; Power and Influence; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
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      Anton, James J., and Dennis A. Yao. "Measuring the Effectiveness of Competition in Defense Procurement: A Survey of the Empirical Literature." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 9, no. 1 (Winter 1990): 60–79. (Harvard users click here for full text.)
      • December 1989
      • Article

      On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

      By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito
      This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
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      Froot, K. A., and T. Ito. "On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations." Journal of International Money and Finance 8, no. 4 (December 1989): 487–510. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2577, May 1988.)
      • November 1989 (Revised March 1992)
      • Background Note

      Concept Testing

      By: Robert J. Dolan
      Describes concept testing products. Presents guidelines for effective design, execution, and interpretation of test procedures. Discusses limitations of these techniques and sets out the situations for which they are appropriate. View Details
      Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Dolan, Robert J. "Concept Testing." Harvard Business School Background Note 590-063, November 1989. (Revised March 1992.)
      • 1989
      • Book

      Forecasting Methods for Management

      By: S. Makridakis and S. C. Wheelwright
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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      Makridakis, S., and S. C. Wheelwright. Forecasting Methods for Management. 5th ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1989.
      • 1989
      • Book

      Future Competition in Telecommunications

      By: Stephen P. Bradley and Jerry A. Hausman
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Competition; Telecommunications Industry
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      Bradley, Stephen P. and Jerry A. Hausman, eds. Future Competition in Telecommunications. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1989.
      • 1989
      • Chapter

      The Future Evolution of the Central Office Switching Industry

      By: Jerry A. Hausman and Elon Kohlberg
      Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Communication Technology; Forecasting and Prediction; Telecommunications Industry
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      Hausman, Jerry A., and Elon Kohlberg. "The Future Evolution of the Central Office Switching Industry." In Future Competition in Telecommunications, edited by Stephen P. Bradley and Jerry A. Hausman. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1989.
      • February 1989 (Revised November 1991)
      • Case

      Science Technology Co.--1985

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The CEO of a U.S. electronics firm is assessing the financial forecasts and the financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Given the cyclicality of the industry and the volatility of the firm's performance, the CEO is unsure as to the usefulness of... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Change Management; Industry Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Volatility; Electronics Industry
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Science Technology Co.--1985." Harvard Business School Case 289-040, February 1989. (Revised November 1991.)
      • July 1987 (Revised October 2009)
      • Background Note

      A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method"

      By: William A. Sahlman and Daniel R Scherlis
      Describes a method for valuing high-risk, long-term investments such as those confronting venture capitalists. The method entails forecasting a future value (e.g., five years from the present) and discounting that terminal value back to the present by applying a high... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Risk Management; Valuation
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      Sahlman, William A., and Daniel R Scherlis. A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method". Harvard Business School Background Note 288-006, July 1987. (Revised October 2009.)
      • May 1987 (Revised February 2000)
      • Case

      Codman & Shurtleff, Inc.: Planning and Control System

      By: Robert L. Simons
      Detailed description of the planning and control systems in use at Johnson & Johnson. Focuses on the actions of managers in one subsidiary in revising budget targets. Illustrates intensive strategic planning and financial planning process in a large, decentralized... View Details
      Keywords: Strategic Planning; Planning; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting Audits; Budgets and Budgeting; Business Strategy; Financial Management; Business or Company Management; Management Systems; Public Administration Industry; Financial Services Industry
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      Simons, Robert L. "Codman & Shurtleff, Inc.: Planning and Control System." Harvard Business School Case 187-081, May 1987. (Revised February 2000.)
      • 1987
      • Working Paper

      Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

      By: K. A. Froot
      Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Volatility
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      Froot, K. A. "Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 2362, August 1987.
      • July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
      • Background Note

      Note on Comparative Advantage

      By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman
      Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of... View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics; Trade; Theory
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      Yoffie, David B., and John J. Coleman. "Note on Comparative Advantage." Harvard Business School Background Note 387-023, July 1986. (Revised August 1987.)
      • May 1986 (Revised February 1991)
      • Case

      Wilson Lumber Co.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The Wilson Lumber Co. is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth and low profitability. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed, and assess the attractiveness of the... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; Forecasting and Prediction; Sales; Financial Strategy
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Wilson Lumber Co." Harvard Business School Case 286-122, May 1986. (Revised February 1991.)
      • January 1986 (Revised April 1987)
      • Background Note

      Models for Updating Demand Forecasts

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Models for Updating Demand Forecasts." Harvard Business School Background Note 186-180, January 1986. (Revised April 1987.)
      • July 1985
      • Background Note

      Measuring Forecast Accuracy

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Measuring Forecast Accuracy." Harvard Business School Background Note 186-027, July 1985.
      • Article

      Political Forecasting as a Management Tool

      By: James E. Austin and David Yoffie
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
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      Austin, James E., and David Yoffie. "Political Forecasting as a Management Tool." Journal of Forecasting 3, no. 4 (October–December 1984).
      • February 1984 (Revised February 1986)
      • Case

      E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.: Titanium Dioxide

      By: W. Carl Kester, Robert R. Glauber, David W. Mullins Jr. and Stacy S. Dick
      Disequilibrium in the $350 million TiO2 market has prompted Du Pont's Pigments Department to develop two strategies for competing in this market in the future. The growth strategy has a smaller internal rate of return than the alternative strategy due to large capital... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Investment Return; Growth and Development Strategy; Strategic Planning; Projects; Chemical Industry
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      Kester, W. Carl, Robert R. Glauber, David W. Mullins Jr., and Stacy S. Dick. "E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.: Titanium Dioxide." Harvard Business School Case 284-066, February 1984. (Revised February 1986.)
      • 1983
      • Chapter

      Analyzing Competitors: Predicting Competitor Behavior and Formulating Offensive and Defensive Strategy

      By: M. E. Porter
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior
      Citation
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      Porter, M. E. "Analyzing Competitors: Predicting Competitor Behavior and Formulating Offensive and Defensive Strategy." In Policy, Strategy, and Implementation, edited by Milton Leontiades. Random House, 1983.
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