Publications

April 12, 2022
Article

Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships

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July 11, 2023
Article

How Reputation Does (and Does Not) Drive People to Punish Without Looking

By: Jillian J. Jordan and Nour S. Kteily

Punishing wrongdoers can confer reputational benefits, and people sometimes punish without careful consideration. But are these observations related? Does reputation drive people to people to “punish without looking”? And if so, is this because unquestioning... View Details

Keywords: Opposing Perspectives; Outrage Culture; Signaling; Ideology; Moralistic Punishment; Perspective; Behavior; Reputation; Decision Making

July 16, 2016
Article

A Game Theoretic Model for Resource Allocation Among Countermeasures with Multiple Attributes

By: Elisabeth C. Paulson, Igor Linkov and Jeffrey Keisler

We study a strategic, two-player, sequential game between an attacker and defender. The defender must allocate resources amongst possible countermeasures and across possible targets. The attacker then chooses a type of threat and a target to attack. This paper proposes... View Details

Keywords: Resource Allocation; Game Theory; Strategy

October–December 2022
Article

How Psychological Safety and Feeling Heard Relate to Burnout and Adaptation Amid Uncertainty

By: Michaela J. Kerrissey, Tuna Cem Hayirli, Aditi Bhanja, Nicholas Stark, James Hardy and Christopher Peabody

Background: Psychological safety—the belief that it is safe to speak up—is vital amid uncertainty, but its relationship to feeling heard is not well understood.
Purpose: The aims of this study were (a) to measure feeling heard and (b) to assess... View Details

Keywords: Burnout; Crisis; Psychological Safety; Feeling Heard; Process Adaptation; Interpersonal Communication; Well-being; Health Care and Treatment; Adaptation

October 2021
Article

Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

By: Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher and Michael Wahlen

We study a novel, low-cost approach to aggregating judgment from a large number of industry experts on ideas that they encounter in their normal course of business. Our context is the movie industry, in which customer appeal is difficult to predict and investment costs... View Details

Keywords: Judgment Aggregation; Quality Uncertainty; Creative Industry; Project Evaluation And Selection; Creativity; Film Entertainment; Judgments; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

November 26, 2019
Article

Veil-of-Ignorance Reasoning Favors the Greater Good

By: Karen Huang, Joshua D. Greene and Max Bazerman

The “veil of ignorance” is a moral reasoning device designed to promote impartial decision-making by denying decision-makers access to potentially biasing information about who will benefit most or least from the available options. Veil-of-ignorance reasoning was... View Details

Keywords: Policy Making; Procedural Justice; Ethics; Decision Making; Policy; Fairness

December 2019
Case

Small-Market Teams and Big Stars: The Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo

By: Anita Elberse and Melcolm Ruffin

In October 2019, National Basketball Association (NBA) team the Milwaukee Bucks are about to tip off their first home game in the 2019–2020 NBA season. Peter Feigin, president of the Milwaukee Bucks, and Jon Horst, the league’s youngest general manager, could look back... View Details

Keywords: Superstars; Talent and Talent Management; Sports; Strategy; Sports Industry

Educators

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2020
Working Paper

Arbitration with Uninformed Consumers

By: Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru

This paper studies the impact of the arbitrator selection process on consumer outcomes by examining roughly 9,000 consumer arbitration cases in the securities industry. Securities disputes present a good laboratory: arbitration is mandatory for all disputes,... View Details

Keywords: Arbitration; Financial Advisers; Financial Advisors; Brokers; Consumer Finance; Financial Misconduct; Fraud; Personal Finance; Conflict and Resolution; Information; Fairness

SSRN

2011
Working Paper

Price Competition under Multinomial Logit Demand Functions with Random Coefficients

In this paper, we postulate a general class of price competition models with Mixed Multinomial Logit demand functions under affine cost functions. We first characterize the equilibrium behavior of this class of models in the case where each product in the market is... View Details

Keywords: Customers; Income Characteristics; Price; Product Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Competition; Segmentation

2009
Working Paper

An Ounce of Prevention: The Power of Public Risk Management in Stabilizing the Financial System

By: David A. Moss

The magnitude of the current financial crisis reflects the failure of an economic and regulatory philosophy that had proved increasingly influential in policy circles over the past three decades.

This paper suggests (1) that contrary to the prevailing wisdom,... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Financial Institutions; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Risk Management; Business and Government Relations; Balance and Stability