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    • All HBS Web  (2,176)
      • Faculty Publications  (553)

      EstimationRemove Estimation →

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      • fall 2007
      • Article

      Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

      By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Gaur, Vishal, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher. "Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007).
      • June 2007
      • Article

      Does Employment Protection Reduce Productivity? Evidence from U.S. States

      By: David H Autor, William R. Kerr and Adriana D. Kugler
      Theory predicts that mandated employment protections may reduce productivity by distorting production choices. Firms facing (non-Coasean) worker dismissal costs will curtail hiring below efficient levels and retain unproductive workers, both of which should affect... View Details
      Keywords: Theory; Production; Selection and Staffing; Cost; Employment; Capital; Performance Productivity; United States
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      Autor, David H., William R. Kerr, and Adriana D. Kugler. "Does Employment Protection Reduce Productivity? Evidence from U.S. States." Economic Journal 117, no. 521 (June 2007): 189–217.
      • 2006
      • Working Paper

      The Value of a 'Free' Customer

      By: Sunil Gupta, Carl F. Mela and Jose M. Vidal-Sanz

      Central to a firm's growth and marketing policy is the revenus and profit potential of its customer assets. As a result, there has been a recent proliferation of work regarding customer lifetime value. However, extant research in this area is silent regarding how to... View Details

      Keywords: Customer Value and Value Chain; Auctions; Network Effects; Business Strategy
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      Gupta, Sunil, Carl F. Mela, and Jose M. Vidal-Sanz. "The Value of a 'Free' Customer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-035, December 2006.
      • September 2006
      • Article

      Dynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide

      By: Matthew C. Weinzierl and N. Gregory Mankiw
      This paper uses the neoclassical growth model to examine the extent to which a tax cut pays for itself through higher economic growth. The model yields simple expressions for the steady-state feedback effect of a tax cut. The feedback is surprisingly large: for... View Details
      Keywords: Revenue Estimation; Taxation; Economic Growth
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      Weinzierl, Matthew C., and N. Gregory Mankiw. "Dynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide." Journal of Public Economics 90, no. 8 (September 2006): 1415–1433.
      • August 2006
      • Article

      Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default

      By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
      In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details
      Keywords: Credit Risk; Bootstrap; Mathematical Methods; Credit; Risk Management
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      Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).
      • 2006
      • Other Paper

      Estimating the Value of Connections to Vice-President Cheney

      By: Ray Fisman, Julia Galef and Rakesh Khurana
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      Fisman, Ray, Julia Galef, and Rakesh Khurana. "Estimating the Value of Connections to Vice-President Cheney."
      • December 2005 (Revised August 2006)
      • Case

      Amgen Inc.'s Epogen--Commercializing the First Biotech Blockbuster Drug

      By: Felix Oberholzer-Gee and Dennis A. Yao
      Amgen Inc.'s Epogen was the first biotech blockbuster drug. Epogen helped prevent anemia, a condition that leads to severe fatigue, increased risk of cardiovascular disease, and even death. At the time, the market for Epogen, which included dialysis patients and... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Strategic Planning; Competition; Patents; Innovation and Invention; Pharmaceutical Industry; Biotechnology Industry; United States
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      Oberholzer-Gee, Felix, and Dennis A. Yao. "Amgen Inc.'s Epogen--Commercializing the First Biotech Blockbuster Drug." Harvard Business School Case 706-454, December 2005. (Revised August 2006.)
      • July 2005
      • Article

      The Consequences of Labor Market Flexibility: Panel Evidence Based on Survey Data

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
      We introduce a new data set on hiring and firing restrictions for 21 OECD countries for the period 1984 –1990. The data are based on surveys of business people in the countries covered, so the indices we use are subjective in nature. Controlling for country and time... View Details
      Keywords: Job Security Provisions; Subjective Data; Unemployment; Employment; Labor; Markets; Data and Data Sets
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "The Consequences of Labor Market Flexibility: Panel Evidence Based on Survey Data." European Economic Review 49, no. 5 (July 2005): 1225–59.
      • March 2005 (Revised March 2006)
      • Background Note

      Activity-Based Costing and Capacity

      By: Robert S. Kaplan
      Discusses the use of budgeted rather than historical data in an activity-based costing (ABC) model and argues for calculating rates using practical capacity, not actual utilization. An ABC model need not be limited to analysis of historical data. When cost driver rates... View Details
      Keywords: Activity Based Costing and Management; Accounting Industry
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      Kaplan, Robert S. "Activity-Based Costing and Capacity." Harvard Business School Background Note 105-059, March 2005. (Revised March 2006.)
      • 2005
      • Working Paper

      Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements

      By: Malcolm Baker, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We consider measures of stock-picking skill of mutual fund managers based on the earnings announcement returns of the stocks that they hold and trade. Relative to standard approaches, this approach focuses on an especially informative subset of the returns data,... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Asset Management; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Competency and Skills
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      Baker, Malcolm, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10685, February 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
      • 2005
      • Working Paper

      Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions

      By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
      A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details
      Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods
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      Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, January 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
      • November 2004
      • Article

      Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
      In the many years since their introduction, positive theories of inflation have rarely been tested. This paper documents a negative relationship between inflation and the welfare state (proxied by the parameters of the unemployment benefit program) that is to be... View Details
      Keywords: Unemployment; Welfare State; Compensation and Benefits; Inflation and Deflation
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker." Review of Economics and Statistics 86, no. 4 (November 2004): 911–23.
      • October 2004
      • Article

      Are Politicians Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Raymond Fisman
      We provide the first empirical analysis of gubernatorial pay. Using U.S. data for 1950-90, we document substantial variation in the wages of politicians, both across states and overtime. Gubernatorial wages respond to changes in state income per capita and taxes. We... View Details
      Keywords: Government and Politics; Compensation and Benefits
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Raymond Fisman. "Are Politicians Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?" Journal of Law & Economics 47, no. 2 (October 2004): 477–514.
      • September 2004
      • Article

      Estimating the Market Risk Premium

      By: E. Scott Mayfield
      Keywords: Markets; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Mayfield, E. Scott. "Estimating the Market Risk Premium." Journal of Financial Economics 73, no. 3 (September 2004): 465–496.
      • May 2004 (Revised April 2006)
      • Case

      Ultra: The Quest for Leadership (A)

      By: Dwight B. Crane and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho
      Ultra is one of a small group of competing Brazilian petrochemical companies, each of which buys raw material and is a minority owner of Copene, a "cracking" company that provides ethylene and other materials. Because of an industry restructuring, an auction of shares... View Details
      Keywords: Capital; Capital Budgeting; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Industry Structures; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Valuation; Bids and Bidding; Economy; Ownership Stake; Chemical Industry; Brazil
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      Crane, Dwight B., and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho. "Ultra: The Quest for Leadership (A)." Harvard Business School Case 204-146, May 2004. (Revised April 2006.)
      • March 2004 (Revised April 2005)
      • Case

      Midwest Office Products

      By: Robert S. Kaplan
      Presents an easy introduction to time-driven activity-based costing (ABC) that allows students to build a simple ABC model of order profitability. Midwest's time-driven ABC approach is based on two categories of parameter estimates. The first is the cost per hour of... View Details
      Keywords: Cost; Price; Activity Based Costing and Management; Time Management; Financial Reporting; Profit; Performance Improvement; Order Taking and Fulfillment; Performance Evaluation
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      Kaplan, Robert S. "Midwest Office Products." Harvard Business School Case 104-073, March 2004. (Revised April 2005.)
      • March 2004 (Revised May 2005)
      • Case

      Shurgard Self-Storage: Expansion to Europe

      By: Richard G. Hamermesh and Indra Reinbergs
      Shurgard, a U.S.-based firm that rents storage facilities to consumers and small businesses, is considering financing options for rapid expansion of its European operations. Five years after entering Europe, Shurgard Europe has opened 17 facilities in Belgium, France,... View Details
      Keywords: Private Equity; Valuation; Business Model; Governing and Advisory Boards; Entrepreneurship; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Service Industry; Belgium; France; Sweden; United States; Europe
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      Hamermesh, Richard G., and Indra Reinbergs. "Shurgard Self-Storage: Expansion to Europe." Harvard Business School Case 804-112, March 2004. (Revised May 2005.)
      • March 2004
      • Article

      Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces after a Terrorist Attack

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky
      An important challenge in the crime literature is to isolate causal effects of police on crime. Following a terrorist attack on the main Jewish center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in July 1994, all Jewish institutions received police protection. Thus, this hideous event... View Details
      Keywords: Law Enforcement; Crime and Corruption; Resource Allocation; National Security
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Ernesto Schargrodsky. "Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces after a Terrorist Attack." American Economic Review 94, no. 1 (March 2004): 115–33.
      • 2004
      • Working Paper

      Judging Fund Managers by the Company They Keep

      By: Randolph Cohen, Joshua Coval and Luboš Pástor
      We develop a performance evaluation approach in which a fund manager's skill is judged by the extent to which his investment decisions resemble the decisions of managers with distinguished performance records. The proposed performance measures are estimated more... View Details
      Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Performance Evaluation; Investment Funds; Investment
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      Cohen, Randolph, Joshua Coval, and Lubo Pástor. "Judging Fund Managers by the Company They Keep." NBER Working Paper Series, No. W9359, January 2004.
      • December 2003
      • Case

      Fox Bids for the NFL-1993

      By: Bharat N. Anand and Catherine M. Conneely
      The Fox television network, launched in 1987 by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. was in a precarious position in 1993. Although it had met its business plan targets, its ratings in the recently concluded November "sweeps" were indifferent, several of its newly launched... View Details
      Keywords: Valuation; Competitive Strategy; Financial Reporting; Bids and Bidding; Revenue; Television Entertainment; Media and Broadcasting Industry
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      Anand, Bharat N., and Catherine M. Conneely. "Fox Bids for the NFL-1993." Harvard Business School Case 704-443, December 2003.
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