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  • November 2003
  • Article

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Related
  • 22–23 Sep 2020
  • Virtual Programming

Driving Impact: A Dialogue on Capitalism, Climate, and Social Change

Join Professor Rebecca Henderson and Sir Ronald Cohen (MBA 1969) as they debate the theories of change. The conversation will compare and contrast the authors groundbreaking approaches to rethinking the role of business in driving impactone through the lens of... View Details

    Jill J. Avery

    Dr. Jill Avery is a Senior Lecturer of Business Administration and C. Roland Christensen Distinguished Management Educator in the marketing unit at Harvard Business School. She is a respected authority on branding and brand management, customer relationship... View Details

    Keywords: consumer products; arts; advertising; automobiles; retailing; fashion; hotels ＆ motels; food; beverage
    • 05 Jul 2004
    • What Do You Think?

    Work-Life: Is Productivity in the Balance?

    acknowledge the value of spending time with one's family, but I do not discount the overall advantage a society enjoys when its members are at the peak of their productivity." Clearly, many organizations regard work-life benefits (as a subset of all benefits) as... View Details
    Keywords: by James Heskett
    • December 1999 (Revised October 2006)
    • Case

    Praedium Corporation

    By: Henry B. Reiling and Catherine M. Conneely
    George Hicks and Patricia Ferrey, primary shareholders of the Praedium Corp., faced a dilemma that could dissolve their real estate management company. Praedium received an attractive offer to lease one of its properties, however, Hicks did not want to terminate the... View Details
    Keywords: Leasing; Property; Taxation; Investment Return; Real Estate Industry; Real Estate Industry
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    • 21 Oct 2013
    • Research & Ideas

    Missing the Wave in Ship Transport

    Like investing in a mansion when the real-estate market is at its peak, buying a dry bulk ship in a boom time is a terrible long-term investment, according to new research that predicts cycles in the shipping industry. The contrarian... View Details
    Keywords: by Kim Girard; Transportation
    • September 2024 (Revised May 2025)
    • Case

    Carrie Wang: Choosing Between the Family Firm and the Family Spirit

    By: Lauren Cohen, Fei Wu and Sophia Pan
    Carrie Wang, Investment Head of the Wang’s single-family office, contemplated her next career steps. As one of the first businessmen who had risen from China’s industrial rise, her father had grown his wealth to a considerable level, eventually requesting that his... View Details
    Keywords: Family Office; Interests Of Consumers; Family Business; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Financial Markets; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Private Equity; Customer Relationship Management; Interests; Reputation; Work-Life Balance; Real Estate Industry; China
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    • 28 Aug 2006
    • Research & Ideas

    Online Match-Making with Virtual Dates

    match, the couple meets over their computers for a five-minute Virtual Date, a kind of online ice-breaker that allows two people to communicate in real time using colors, words, and images. In the process of using Virtual Dates, couples... View Details
    Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Publishing
    • 07 Dec 2009
    • Research & Ideas

    Government’s Positive Role in Kick-Starting Entrepreneurship

    well-connected. From the empty BioValley complex in Malaysia to the repeated U.S. Small Business Innovation Research grants to Beltway "mills" that produce few real innovations, this pattern is depressingly familiar. Successful... View Details
    Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Technology
    • 2025
    • Working Paper

    Race, Rental Yields, and Housing Decay in Manhattan

    By: Tom Nicholas and Christophe Spaenjers
    We develop a new dataset on real estate transactions in Manhattan (1912–1939), linked to federal Census records (1930 and 1940) and property images used for tax assessment purposes (around 1940 and 1980). We analyze investor returns and incentives to maintain... View Details
    Keywords: Housing Markets; Rental Yields; Urban Decay; Manhattan; Race; Equality and Inequality; Investment Return; Motivation and Incentives; Real Estate Industry; New York (city, NY)
    Related
    • December 2021 (Revised January 2023)
    • Supplement

    Katerra (B)

    By: Lindsay N. Hyde, Thomas R. Eisenmann and Tom Quinn
    In May 2020, SoftBank executives, having invested nearly $2 billion in Katerra, decided the vision of an end-to-end, vertically-integrated construction process was worth saving—with some major changes to company structure. The SoftBank Vision Fund invested $200 million... View Details
    Keywords: Business Startups; Failure; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Entrepreneurship; Construction; Real Estate Industry; Real Estate Industry; Real Estate Industry; United States
    Related
    • February 2008 (Revised September 2009)
    • Case

    Lance Johnstone: Developing 3000 North Broad

    The case focuses on Lance Johnstone, a former NFL player, who has dabbled in real estate development during his playing career, and now, as a retired player, is trying to pursue the development of a 10-unit rental apartment building in a depressed area of Philadelphia,... View Details
    Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Development Economics; Construction; Entrepreneurship; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Urban Development; Real Estate Industry; Philadelphia
    Related
    • 21 Aug 2023
    • Book

    You’re More Than Your Job: 3 Tips for a Healthier Work-Life Balance

    grit is going to overcome structural inequality and the lack of growth in real wages. Each of these pieces has made stability harder to achieve individually and collectively.” One of the more telling indicators of the shift in how... View Details
    Keywords: by Kara Baskin
    • June 2012
    • Article

    Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks

    By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
    Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details
    Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit
    Related
    • 01 Dec 2003
    • What Do You Think?

    Is This the Twilight Era for the Managed Mutual Fund?

    probably seen the beginning of the decline of the actively managed mutual fund," Charles Broming expressed the hope that "money management will become another technical job and compensation will reflect its real added... View Details
    Keywords: by James Heskett
    • 2002
    • Other Unpublished Work

    The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

    By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
    The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
    Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
    Related

      Robert J. Dolan

      Robert J. Dolan is the Baker Foundation Professor at Harvard Business School. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Rochester and began his academic career in 1976 as a faculty member at the Graduate School of Business of the University of Chicago. He joined... View Details

      • 07 Sep 2017
      • Blog Post

      How One Organization Increased Their Internship Yield

      In their reciprocal pursuits of internships and interns, HBS MBA candidates and participating employers invest a considerable amount of interest, time and, in many cases, money. With so much at stake, both hopes and anxieties run high,... View Details
      Keywords: Manufacturing
      • 2008
      • Book

      The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World

      By: Niall Ferguson
      Niall Ferguson traces the historical evolution of the financial system, from its origins in ancient Mesopotamia to the latest upheavals on what he calls "Planet Finance." In doing so, he reveals financial history as the essential backstory behind all history, from the... View Details
      Keywords: Financial History; Money; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Investment; Globalization
      Related
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Real investors and markets are too complicated to be neatly summarized by a few selected biases and trading frictions. The "top down" approach to behavioral finance focuses on the measurement of reduced form, aggregate sentiment and traces its effects to stock returns.... View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Markets; Behavioral Finance; Stocks
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