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- Faculty Publications (568)
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- All HBS Web (617)
- Faculty Publications (568)
- April 12, 2022
- Article
Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships
Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
- 2019
- Working Paper
Intelligent Artificiality: Algorithmic Microfoundations for Strategic Problem Solving
By: Mihnea Moldoveanu
This paper introduces algorithmic micro-foundations for formulating and solving strategic problems. It shows how the languages and disciplines of theoretical computer science, “artificial intelligence,” and computational complexity theory can be used to devise a set of... View Details
Keywords: Problems and Challenges; Analysis; Strategy; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Mathematical Methods
Moldoveanu, Mihnea. "Intelligent Artificiality: Algorithmic Microfoundations for Strategic Problem Solving." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-072, January 2019. (Revised February 2019.)
- October 2005 (Revised February 2010)
- Background Note
Calculating Free Cash Flows
By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein
Outlines the mechanics of calculating free cash flows from historical and proforma financial statements. Focuses on the mechanical process of transforming numbers from financial forecasts into cash flows. View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and David S. Scharfstein. "Calculating Free Cash Flows." Harvard Business School Background Note 206-028, October 2005. (Revised February 2010.)
- November 1990
- Case
Chemplan Corp.: Paint-Rite Division
By: Paul A. Vatter
An exercise with data that allows a discussion of regression analysis as a tool for forecasting and understanding structure. View Details
Vatter, Paul A. "Chemplan Corp.: Paint-Rite Division." Harvard Business School Case 191-090, November 1990.
- 2017
- Working Paper
Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp
By: Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Yeon-Koo Che, Parag A. Pathak, Alvin E. Roth and Oliver Tercieux
In 2012, New Orleans Recovery School District (RSD) became the first U.S. district to unify charter and traditional public school admissions in a single-offer assignment mechanism known as OneApp. The RSD also became the first district to use a mechanism based on Top... View Details
Keywords: Education; Decision Choices and Conditions; Marketplace Matching; Mathematical Methods; Design
Abdulkadiroglu, Atila, Yeon-Koo Che, Parag A. Pathak, Alvin E. Roth, and Oliver Tercieux. "Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 23265, March 2017.
- 2023
- Working Paper
How People Use Statistics
By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "How People Use Statistics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31631, August 2023.
- May 2020
- Article
Identifying Sources of Inefficiency in Health Care
By: Amitabh Chandra and Douglas O. Staiger
In medicine, the reasons for variation in treatment rates across hospitals serving similar patients are not well understood. Some interpret this variation as unwarranted and push standardization of care as a way of reducing allocative inefficiency. However, an... View Details
Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Performance Efficiency; Performance Productivity; Mathematical Methods
Chandra, Amitabh, and Douglas O. Staiger. "Identifying Sources of Inefficiency in Health Care." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 2 (May 2020): 785–843.
- 2019
- Article
Ridesharing with Driver Location Preferences
By: Duncan Rheingans-Yoo, Scott Duke Kominers, Hongyao Ma and David C. Parkes
We study revenue-optimal pricing and driver compensation in ridesharing platforms when drivers have heterogeneous preferences over locations. If a platform ignores drivers' location preferences, it may make inefficient trip dispatches; moreover, drivers may strategize... View Details
Keywords: Ridesharing; Pricing; Compensation and Benefits; Geographic Location; Market Design; Mathematical Methods
Rheingans-Yoo, Duncan, Scott Duke Kominers, Hongyao Ma, and David C. Parkes. "Ridesharing with Driver Location Preferences." Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2019): 557–564.
- 23 Jan 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Transaction Costs and the Duration of Contracts
Keywords: by Alexander MacKay
- March 2011 (Revised November 2011)
- Teaching Note
Harmonic Hearing Co. (Brief Case)
By: Howard H. Stevenson and Craig Stephenson
Teaching Note for 4271. View Details
- January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
- Case
Forecasting the Great Depression
What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details
Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis
Friedman, Walter A. "Forecasting the Great Depression." Harvard Business School Case 708-046, January 2008. (Revised July 2009.)
- April 2006
- Background Note
Informing Service Management with Customer Data
By: Frances X. Frei and Dennis Campbell
Taught as the third module in a Harvard Business School course on Managing Service Operations. Explores the role of data analysis in ongoing service management. Describes how to realize the maximum amount of value from analyses and use this information in... View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Design; Analytics and Data Science; Service Operations; Mathematical Methods; Value
Frei, Frances X., and Dennis Campbell. "Informing Service Management with Customer Data." Harvard Business School Background Note 606-097, April 2006.
- Working Paper
Group Fairness in Dynamic Refugee Assignment
By: Daniel Freund, Thodoris Lykouris, Elisabeth Paulson, Bradley Sturt and Wentao Weng
Ensuring that refugees and asylum seekers thrive (e.g., find employment) in their host countries is a profound humanitarian goal, and a primary driver of employment is the geographic
location within a host country to which the refugee or asylum seeker is... View Details
Freund, Daniel, Thodoris Lykouris, Elisabeth Paulson, Bradley Sturt, and Wentao Weng. "Group Fairness in Dynamic Refugee Assignment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-047, February 2023.
- March 2022
- Article
Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field
Identifying high-growth microentrepreneurs in low-income countries remains a challenge due to a scarcity of verifiable information. With a cash grant experiment in India we demonstrate that community knowledge can help target high-growth microentrepreneurs; while the... View Details
Keywords: Microentrepreneurs; Community Information; Field Experiment; Loans; Entrepreneurship; Developing Countries and Economies; Financing and Loans; Information; Mathematical Methods; India
Hussam, Reshmaan, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field." American Economic Review 112, no. 3 (March 2022): 861–898.
(Online Appendix with Corrigendum—Thanks to Isabella Masetto, Diego Ubfal, and The Institute for Replication for identifying a minor coding error in the production of Table 4.)
(Online Appendix with Corrigendum—Thanks to Isabella Masetto, Diego Ubfal, and The Institute for Replication for identifying a minor coding error in the production of Table 4.)
- January 2002
- Background Note
Note on Business Model Analysis for the Entrepreneur
By: Richard G. Hamermesh, Paul W. Marshall and Taslim Pirmohamed
Describes the primary elements and defining characteristics of a company's business model from the perspective of an entrepreneur. Introduces several analytic techniques and provides illustrative examples of business models to support the analytic framework presented. View Details
Keywords: Business Model; Entrepreneurship; Framework; Mathematical Methods; Opportunities; Perspective
Hamermesh, Richard G., Paul W. Marshall, and Taslim Pirmohamed. "Note on Business Model Analysis for the Entrepreneur." Harvard Business School Background Note 802-048, January 2002.
- April 1999 (Revised May 2000)
- Case
Compaq Computer: Intel Inside?
By: David E. Bell and Ann Leamon
Presents the results of quantitative and qualitative market research on the possible acceptance of a non-Intel processor in Compaq Computer's consumer notebook line. If the low-priced, non-Intel notebook is a success, the company will maintain or increase its 45% share... View Details
Keywords: Distribution; Production; Success; Performance Evaluation; Mathematical Methods; Competition; Computer Industry
Bell, David E., and Ann Leamon. "Compaq Computer: Intel Inside?" Harvard Business School Case 599-061, April 1999. (Revised May 2000.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits
By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the... View Details
Liang, Biyonka, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-057, March 2024.
- November–December 2018
- Article
Online Network Revenue Management Using Thompson Sampling
By: Kris J. Ferreira, David Simchi-Levi and He Wang
We consider a network revenue management problem where an online retailer aims to maximize revenue from multiple products with limited inventory constraints. As common in practice, the retailer does not know the consumer's purchase probability at each price and must... View Details
Keywords: Online Marketing; Revenue Management; Revenue; Management; Marketing; Internet and the Web; Price; Mathematical Methods
Ferreira, Kris J., David Simchi-Levi, and He Wang. "Online Network Revenue Management Using Thompson Sampling." Operations Research 66, no. 6 (November–December 2018): 1586–1602.
- Winter 2017
- Article
Why Big Data Isn't Enough
By: Sen Chai and Willy C. Shih
There is a growing belief that sophisticated algorithms can explore huge databases and find relationships independent of any preconceived hypotheses. But in businesses that involve scientific research and technological innovation, this approach is misguided and... View Details
Keywords: Big Data; Science-based; Science; Scientific Research; Data Analytics; Data Science; Data-driven Management; Data Scientists; Technological Innovation; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; Theory
Chai, Sen, and Willy C. Shih. "Why Big Data Isn't Enough." Art. 58227. MIT Sloan Management Review 58, no. 2 (Winter 2017): 57–61.
- May 2011
- Teaching Note
Baria Planning Solutions, Inc.: Fixing the Sales Process (Brief Case)
By: Steven C. Wheelwright and William Schmidt
Teaching Note for 4568. View Details