Publications

2016
Working Paper

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

By: David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy C. Stein and Egon Zakrajsek

Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t – 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions.... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Credit; Macroeconomics

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21 Oct 2014
First Look

First Look: October 21

strategic ends? Analytical tools discussed include development metrics, impact of financing on projects, as well as analytical methods to forecast market demand. Purchase this case:... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Article

Why Do Pro Forma and Street Earnings Not Reflect Changes in GAAP? Evidence from SFAS 123R

By: Ian D. Gow, Mary E. Barth and Daniel Taylor

This study examines how key market participants—managers and analysts—responded to SFAS 123R's controversial requirement that firms recognize stock-based compensation expense. Despite mandated recognition of the expense, some firms' managers exclude it from pro forma... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Employee Stock Ownership Plan

December 2001 (Revised April 2003)
Case

Poland's A2 Motorway

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Michael Kane

Autostrada Wielkopolska S.A. (AWSA) is a consortium of 18 firms that won a concession to build and operate Poland's first private toll road. In June 2000, AWSA's chief financial officer, Wojciech Gebicki, is preparing for a meeting with the projects' lead bankers to... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Cost vs Benefits; Project Finance; Projects; Construction Industry; Transportation Industry; Poland

April 2023
Article

The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation

By: Ethan Rouen and Matthias Regier

We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between... View Details

Keywords: Intangibles; Valuation; Human Capital; Investment Return

September 2001 (Revised April 2002)
Case

Ocean Carriers

By: Erik Stafford, Angela Chao and Kathleen Luchs

In January 2001, Mary Linn, vice president of finance for Ocean Carriers, a shipping company with offices in New York and Hong Kong, was evaluating a proposed lease of a ship for a three-year period, beginning in early 2003. The customer was eager to finalize the... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost of Capital; Leasing; Corporate Strategy; Valuation; Shipping Industry; New York (city, NY); Hong Kong

August 2006
Case

Dreyer's Slow Churned(TM) Ice Cream

By: Noel H. Watson, Steven C. Wheelwright and Brian DeLacey

Examines capacity forecasting and planning in a complex new product introduction scenario. The introduction at Dreyer's, a large dairy snack manufacturer, involves not only a new product but a new manufacturing process and product package, thus implying a significant... View Details

Keywords: Advertising; Forecasting and Prediction; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Launch; Product Development; Planning; Food and Beverage Industry; United States

July 2015
Article

The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on Investment Recommendations: Analysts' Perceptions and Shifting Institutional Logics

By: Ioannis Ioannou and George Serafeim

We explore the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) ratings on sell-side analysts' assessments of firms' future financial performance. We suggest that when analysts perceive CSR as an agency cost, due to the prevalence of an agency logic, they produce... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility; Analysts; Investment Recommendations; Sustainability; Institutional Logics; Environment; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Investment; Corporate Governance; United States

Research Summary

Overview

Professor MacKay combines theory and measurement to deliver new insights about price competition and consumer preferences. In current and published papers, his research addresses how strategic pricing decisions may be influenced by algorithms, long-term contracts,... View Details

Keywords: Price Effects; Competition Policy; Algorithms; Online Competition; Dynamic Pricing; Beliefs; Preferences; Preference Heterogeneity; Preference Measurement; Competition; Microeconomics; Strategy; Integration; Cooperation

27 Nov 2023
Research & Ideas

Voting Democrat or Republican? The Critical Childhood Influence That's Tough to Shake

American political candidates are forecast to spend as much as $12 billion by next November to put ads on airwaves, texts on phones, and signs on lawns. Yet new research from Harvard Business School finds that no amount of money can undo... View Details

Keywords: by Ben Rand

2013
Working Paper

NBC and the 2012 London Olympics: Unexpected Success

By: Stephen A. Greyser and Vadim Kogan

"The 2010 Vancouver Winter Games lost $223 million, astonishing for a 17-day event. Next year's London Summer Games, which cost a record Olympic rights fee of $1.18 billion, are expected to lose at least as much..." wrote Richard Sandomir in The New York Times. "NBC... View Details

Keywords: Success; Profit; Sports; Failure; Television Entertainment; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Sports Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Vancouver; Beijing; London; Brazil; Russia

11 Jan 2007
Working Paper Summaries

A Perceptions Framework for Categorizing Inventory Policies in Single-stage Inventory Systems

Keywords: by Noel Watson

Teaching Interest

Executive Education: Finance for Senior Executives

By: Malcolm P. Baker

Finance for Senior Executives provides the frameworks to strategically use financial resources and position your company for future success. By examining corporate finance from both internal and external perspectives, this HBS Executive Education View Details

January–February 2021
Article

Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality

By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim

We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both... View Details

Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy

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2022
Working Paper

The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation

By: Matthias Regier and Ethan Rouen

We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged... View Details

Keywords: Intangibles; Market Valuation; Human Capital; Stocks; Financial Markets; Valuation

SSRN

June 2021
Article

From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg and Cynthia Zeng

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science