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    • All HBS Web  (2,176)
      • Faculty Publications  (553)

      EstimationRemove Estimation →

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      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?

      By: Raghuram Iyengar, Sangman Han and Sunil Gupta

      Social networks, such as Facebook and Myspace have witnessed a rapid growth in their membership. Some of these businesses have tried an advertising-based model with very limited success. However, these businesses have not fully explored the power of their members to... View Details

      Keywords: Marketing; Network Effects; Sales; Power and Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Web Sites; South Korea
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      Iyengar, Raghuram, Sangman Han, and Sunil Gupta. "Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-123, April 2009.
      • February 2009
      • Journal Article

      Domestic Effects of the Foreign Activities of U.S. Multinationals

      By: Mihir A. Desai, C. Fritz Foley and James R. Hines Jr.
      Do firms investing abroad simultaneously reduce their domestic activity? This paper analyzes the relationship between the domestic and foreign operations of American manufacturing firms between 1982 and 2004 by instrumenting for changes in foreign operations with GDP... View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Global Range; Local Range; Multinational Firms and Management; Compensation and Benefits; Operations; Manufacturing Industry; United States
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      Desai, Mihir A., C. Fritz Foley, and James R. Hines Jr. "Domestic Effects of the Foreign Activities of U.S. Multinationals." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 1, no. 1 (February 2009): 181–203.
      • May 2009
      • Article

      Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads

      By: Victoria Ivashina
      The paper estimates the cost arising from information asymmetry between the lead bank and members of the lending syndicate. In a lending syndicate, the lead bank retains only a fraction of the loan but acts as the intermediary between the borrower and the syndicate... View Details
      Keywords: Cost; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Capital; Investment Portfolio; Credit; Diversification; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Ivashina, Victoria. "Asymmetric Information Effects on Loan Spreads." Journal of Financial Economics 92, no. 2 (May 2009): 300–319.
      • January 2009
      • Journal Article

      The Fiscal Impact of High-skilled Emigration: Flows of Indians to the U.S.

      By: Mihir Desai, D. Kapur, J. McHale and K Rogers
      Easing immigration restrictions for the highly skilled in developed countries portends a future of increased human capital outflows from developing countries. The myriad consequences of these developments for developing countries include the direct loss of the fiscal... View Details
      Keywords: Talent and Talent Management; Diasporas; Developing Countries and Economies; Taxation; Compensation and Benefits; Human Capital; Mathematical Methods; India; United States
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      Desai, Mihir, D. Kapur, J. McHale, and K Rogers. "The Fiscal Impact of High-skilled Emigration: Flows of Indians to the U.S." Journal of Development Economics 88, no. 1 (January 2009).
      • November 2008
      • Case

      The StarNight Hotel Construction Bid: Real Time Competition on Schedule, Scope, and Cost

      By: John D. Macomber
      The case is intended for use with the HBS Educational Technology Group "Construction Bidding Simulation." Material that can be taught includes quantity survey methodology (from the case); analyzing preliminary estimated costs per building trade (from the discussion... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Construction; Cost; Contracts; Bids and Bidding; Real Estate Industry
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      Macomber, John D. "The StarNight Hotel Construction Bid: Real Time Competition on Schedule, Scope, and Cost." Harvard Business School Case 209-067, November 2008.
      • September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
      • Exercise

      Exercise on Estimation

      By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville
      This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident. View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Personal Characteristics
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      Riis, Jason, and John T. Gourville. "Exercise on Estimation." Harvard Business School Exercise 509-022, September 2008. (Revised September 2010.)
      • September 2008
      • Article

      Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification

      By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann
      This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details
      Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States
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      Hanson, Samuel G., M. Hashem Pesaran, and Til Schuermann. "Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification." Journal of Empirical Finance 15, no. 4 (September 2008): 583–612.
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts

      By: Rick Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal and Suraj Srinivasan
      We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated with career penalties in the form of a reduced bonus, smaller equity grants, and a greater chance of forced dismissal for both CEOs and CFOs during the period 1993-2004. These results... View Details
      Keywords: Earnings Management; Governing and Advisory Boards; Compensation and Benefits; Managerial Roles; Personal Development and Career
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      Mergenthaler, Rick, Shiva Rajgopal, and Suraj Srinivasan. "CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-014, August 2008. (Revised June 2009.)
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      A Replication Study of Alan Blinder's 'How Many U.S. Jobs Might Be Offshorable?'

      By: Troy Smith and Jan W. Rivkin
      In a 2007 working paper, Alan Blinder assessed the "offshorability" of hundreds of U.S. occupations and estimated that between 22% and 29% of all U.S. jobs were potentially offshorable. This note reports the results of an exercise in which members of Harvard Business... View Details
      Keywords: Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Wages; Research; United States
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      Smith, Troy, and Jan W. Rivkin. "A Replication Study of Alan Blinder's 'How Many U.S. Jobs Might Be Offshorable?'." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-104, June 2008.
      • 2008
      • Chapter

      Allocating Marketing Resources

      By: Sunil Gupta and Thomas J. Steenburgh

      Companies spend billions of dollars on marketing every year because it is essential to organic growth. Given these large investments, marketing managers have the responsibility to optimally allocate resources and to demonstrate that their investments generate... View Details

      Keywords: Investment Return; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods
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      Gupta, Sunil, and Thomas J. Steenburgh. "Allocating Marketing Resources." In Marketing Mix Decisions: New Perspectives and Practices, edited by Roger A. Kerin and Rob O'Regan. Chicago, IL: American Marketing Association, 2008.
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Investable Tax Credits: The Case of the Low Income Housing Tax Credit

      By: Mihir A. Desai, Dhammika Dharmapala and Monica Singhal
      The Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) represents a novel tax expenditure program that employs "investable" tax credits to spur production of low-income rental housing. While it has grown into the largest source of new affordable housing in the U.S. and its... View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Taxation; Housing; Renting or Rental; United States
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      Desai, Mihir A., Dhammika Dharmapala, and Monica Singhal. "Investable Tax Credits: The Case of the Low Income Housing Tax Credit." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 14149, June 2008.
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Allocating Marketing Resources

      By: Sunil Gupta and Thomas J. Steenburgh
      Marketing is essential for the organic growth of a company. Not surprisingly, firms spend billions of dollars on marketing. Given these large investments, marketing managers have the responsibility to optimally allocate these resources and demonstrate that these... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Return; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods
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      Gupta, Sunil, and Thomas J. Steenburgh. "Allocating Marketing Resources." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-069, February 2008.
      • January 2008
      • Background Note

      Equity Options

      By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford
      The goal of this simulation is to understand the reliance of option values on volatility. When an investor trades an option, they are essentially trading volatility. Therefore, much of the focus in this lesson is on forecasting volatility. Students are able to use two... View Details
      Keywords: Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Stock Options; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Value
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      Coval, Joshua, and Erik Stafford. "Equity Options." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-118, January 2008.
      • January 2008 (Revised September 2008)
      • Supplement

      Marketing the "$100 Laptop" (C)

      By: John A. Quelch and David Chen
      In October 2007, the OLPC reported production delays and missed its shipment date. In early November, the $100 PC finally went into production, with initial shipments planned for Uruguay and Mongolia, and mid-month launched the "Give One, Get One" program. It enabled... View Details
      Keywords: Nonprofit Organizations; For-Profit Firms; Partners and Partnerships; Information Infrastructure; Problems and Challenges; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Computer Industry; Canada; Mongolia; Uruguay; United States
      Citation
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      Quelch, John A., and David Chen. Marketing the "$100 Laptop" (C). Harvard Business School Supplement 508-065, January 2008. (Revised September 2008.)
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      Attracting Flows by Attracting Big Clients: Conflicts of Interest and Mutual Fund Portfolio Choice

      By: Lauren Cohen and Breno Schmidt
      We explore a new channel for attracting inflows using a unique dataset of corporate 401(k) retirement plans and their mutual fund family trustees. Families secure substantial inflows by being named trustee of a 401(k) plan. This affords the plan sponsor potential... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Conflict of Interests; Financial Services Industry
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Breno Schmidt. "Attracting Flows by Attracting Big Clients: Conflicts of Interest and Mutual Fund Portfolio Choice." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-054, January 2008. (Winner of the Barclays Global Investors Best Paper Prize, Asset Allocation Symposium, European Finance Association 2006. Winner of the Society of Quantitative Analysts Award, Best Paper in Quantitative Investments, Western Finance Association 2007.)
      • December 2007 (Revised January 2008)
      • Background Note

      Evaluating M&A Deals-Announcement Effects, Risk Arbitrage and Event Risk

      By: Carliss Y. Baldwin
      The announcement of merger or acquisition conveys new information to the capital markets. This note describes how the stock prices of a Buyer and Target behave after the announcement of a deal. First, for an all-stock deal that is certain to go through, the note... View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Announcements; Capital Markets; Stocks; Price; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Evaluating M&A Deals-Announcement Effects, Risk Arbitrage and Event Risk." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-103, December 2007. (Revised January 2008.)
      • November 2007
      • Background Note

      Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman

      By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford
      Describes a practical method for asset allocation that is more robust to estimation errors than the traditional implementation of mean-variance optimization with sample means and covariances. The Bayesian inspired Black-Litterman model is described after introducing... View Details
      Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Portfolio; Mathematical Methods
      Citation
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      Coval, Joshua D., and Erik Stafford. "Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-085, November 2007.
      • October 2007 (Revised January 2009)
      • Background Note

      Analyzing Relative Costs

      By: Hanna Halaburda and Jan W. Rivkin
      Introduces students to the technique of relative cost analysis, a core technique of strategists. Among the intricate quantitative analyses that strategists undertake, relative cost analysis may be the most common. The goal of a relative cost analysis is simply to... View Details
      Keywords: Cost; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Mathematical Methods; Competition; Competitive Advantage
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      Halaburda, Hanna, and Jan W. Rivkin. "Analyzing Relative Costs." Harvard Business School Background Note 708-462, October 2007. (Revised January 2009.)
      • October 2007
      • Article

      The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures: An Empirical Investigation Using a Simulated Market

      By: Anita Elberse and Bharat N. Anand
      One of the most visible and publicized trends in the movie industry is the escalation in movie advertising expenditures over time. Yet, the returns to movie advertising are poorly understood. The main reason is that disentangling the causal effect of advertising on... View Details
      Keywords: Advertising; Stocks; Investment Return; Price; Revenue; Quality; Mathematical Methods; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Elberse, Anita, and Bharat N. Anand. "The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures: An Empirical Investigation Using a Simulated Market." Information Economics and Policy 19, nos. 3-4 (October 2007): 319–343. (Special Issue on Economics of the Media.)
      • October 2007
      • Article

      The Power of Stars: Do Star Actors Drive the Success of Movies?

      By: Anita Elberse
      Is the involvement of star actors critical to the success of motion pictures? Film studios, which they regularly pay multimillion-dollar fees to star actors, seem driven by that belief. I shed light on the returns on this investment using an event study that considers... View Details
      Keywords: Talent and Talent Management; Film Entertainment; Investment Return; Revenue; Compensation and Benefits; Resource Allocation; Success; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Elberse, Anita. "The Power of Stars: Do Star Actors Drive the Success of Movies?" Journal of Marketing 71, no. 4 (October 2007): 102–120. (Featured in HBS Working Knowledge.)
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