Publications

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August 1983
Background Note

Balance of Payments: Accounting and Presentation

By: David B. Yoffie

Provides an overview of balance of payments accounting and analytical presentation of balance of payments data. Includes sample transactions to illustrate the application of the basic accounting principles and definitions of the standard balances. View Details

Keywords: Accounting; Analytics and Data Science; Management; Standards; Mathematical Methods

April 12, 2022
Article

Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships

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2019
Working Paper

Intelligent Artificiality: Algorithmic Microfoundations for Strategic Problem Solving

By: Mihnea Moldoveanu

This paper introduces algorithmic micro-foundations for formulating and solving strategic problems. It shows how the languages and disciplines of theoretical computer science, “artificial intelligence,” and computational complexity theory can be used to devise a set of... View Details

Keywords: Problems and Challenges; Analysis; Strategy; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Mathematical Methods

October 2005 (Revised February 2010)
Background Note

Calculating Free Cash Flows

By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein

Outlines the mechanics of calculating free cash flows from historical and proforma financial statements. Focuses on the mechanical process of transforming numbers from financial forecasts into cash flows. View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Mathematical Methods

1997
Chapter

Applications of Option-Pricing Theory: Twenty-Five Years Later

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Stock Options; Mathematical Methods

spring 1987
Article

Second-Sourcing and the Experience Curve: Price Competition in Defense Procurement

By: James J. Anton and Dennis A. Yao

We examine a dynamic model of price competition in defense procurement that incorporates the experience curve, asymmetric cost information, and the availability of a higher cost alternative system. We model acquisition as a two-stage process in which initial production... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Government and Politics; Price; Competition; Mathematical Methods

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14 Jun 2017
Working Paper Summaries

Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp

Keywords: by Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Yeon-Koo Che, Parag A. Pathak, Alvin E. Roth, and Oliver Tercieux; Education

1995
Chapter

Regression to the Mean, Expectation Inflation, and the Winner's Curse in Organizational Contexts

By: J. R. Harrison and M. H. Bazerman

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Conflict and Resolution; Competition; Organizational Structure

2014
Working Paper

Non-Adherence in Health Care: A Positive and Normative Analysis

By: Mark Egan and Tomas J. Philipson

Non-adherence in health care results when a patient does not initiate or continue care that a provider has recommended. Previous research identifies non-adherence as a major source of waste in US health care, totaling approximately 2.3% of GDP, and have proposed a... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Behavior; Economics; Analysis; Mathematical Methods

January 2009 (Revised June 2010)
Teaching Note

Lyons Document Storage Corporation: Bond Math (Brief Case)

By: William J. Bruns Jr.

Teaching Note to 3215 View Details

Keywords: Financial Accounting; Quantitative Analysis; Securities; Debt Securities; Cash Flow; Mathematical Methods; Accounting

2008
Working Paper

CPC/CPA Hybrid Bidding in a Second Price Auction

By: Benjamin Edelman and Hoan Lee

We develop a model of online advertising in which each advertiser chooses from multiple advertising measurement metrics—paying either for each click on its ads (CPC), or for each purchase that follows an ad-click (CPA). Our analysis extends classic auction results by... View Details

Keywords: Online Advertising; Auctions; Bids and Bidding; Measurement and Metrics; Quality; Mathematical Methods; Web Sites

23 Jan 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Transaction Costs and the Duration of Contracts

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay

March 2011 (Revised November 2011)
Teaching Note

Harmonic Hearing Co. (Brief Case)

By: Howard H. Stevenson and Craig Stephenson

Teaching Note for 4271. View Details

Keywords: Debts; Quantitative Analysis; Financing; Entrepreneurial Finance; Development Stage Enterprises; Small ＆ Medium-sized Enterprises; Cash Flow; Mathematical Methods; Entrepreneurship; Financing and Loans; Borrowing and Debt

January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
Case

Forecasting the Great Depression

By: Walter A. Friedman

What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details

Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis

April 2006
Background Note

Informing Service Management with Customer Data

By: Frances X. Frei and Dennis Campbell

Taught as the third module in a Harvard Business School course on Managing Service Operations. Explores the role of data analysis in ongoing service management. Describes how to realize the maximum amount of value from analyses and use this information in... View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Design; Analytics and Data Science; Service Operations; Mathematical Methods; Value

2023
Article

Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy

By: Yufan Li, Jialiang Mao and Iavor Bojinov

Phased releases are a common strategy in the technology industry for gradually releasing new products or updates through a sequence of A/B tests in which the number of treated units gradually grows until full deployment or deprecation. Performing phased releases in a... View Details

Keywords: Product Launch; Mathematical Methods; Product Development

January 2020
Article

The Long-Run Dynamics of Electricity Demand: Evidence from Municipal Aggregation

By: Tatyana Deryugina, Alexander MacKay and Julian Reif

We study the dynamics of residential electricity demand by exploiting a natural experiment that produced large and long-lasting price changes in over 250 Illinois communities. Using a flexible difference-in-differences matching approach, we estimate that the price... View Details

Keywords: Electricity Demand; Consumption Dynamics; Energy; Policy; Demand and Consumers; Price; Mathematical Methods

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Working Paper

Group Fairness in Dynamic Refugee Assignment

By: Daniel Freund, Thodoris Lykouris, Elisabeth Paulson, Bradley Sturt and Wentao Weng

Ensuring that refugees and asylum seekers thrive (e.g., find employment) in their host countries is a profound humanitarian goal, and a primary driver of employment is the geographic location within a host country to which the refugee or asylum seeker is... View Details

Keywords: Refugees; Geographic Location; Mathematical Methods; Employment; Fairness