Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2024
Working Paper

Bootstrap Diagnostics for Irregular Estimators

By: Isaiah Andrews and Jesse M. Shapiro

Empirical researchers frequently rely on normal approximations in order to summarize and communicate uncertainty about their findings to their scientific audience. When such approximations are unreliable, they can lead the audience to make misguided decisions. We... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Decision Choices and Conditions

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Article

Complementarity between Audited Financial Reporting and Voluntary Disclosure: The Case of Former Andersen Clients

By: Richard Frankel, Alon Kalay, Gil Sadka and Yuan Zou

Prior literature presents various perspectives on the role of financial reporting. One view is that mandatory periodic reporting disciplines managers and encourages timely voluntary disclosure. We examine this "confirmation hypothesis" using the shock to financial... View Details

Keywords: Financial Disclosure; Mandatory Reporting; Reliability; Voluntary Disclosure; Financial Reporting; Quality; Corporate Disclosure

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October 2016
Case

Moshe Kahlon: Telecommunications Reform and Competition in Israel's Cellular Market (A)

By: Joshua Margolis, Amram Migdal and Kerry Herman

The case addresses reforms to regulations in Israel’s telecommunications industry initiated and implemented under the leadership of Minister of Communications Moshe Kahlon in 2009-2010. The case highlights the challenges faced by a politician attempting to institute... View Details

November 2012
Case

Tracy Palandjian at Social Finance US (A)

By: Alnoor Ebrahim, Catherine Clark and Beth Bafford

It had been eighteen months since Tracy Palandjian had left her position as a managing director at The Parthenon Group to start an ambitious venture called Social Finance US. With a mission "to mobilize investment capital to drive social change," her new organization... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Social Enterprise; Social Entrepreneurship; Personal Development and Career

2011
Working Paper

Matthew: Effect or Fable?

In a market context, a status effect occurs when actors are accorded differential recognition for their efforts depending on their location in a status ordering, holding constant the quality of these efforts. In practice, because it is very difficult to measure... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Status and Position; Measurement and Metrics; Quality

September 2023 (Revised September 2024)
Case

IBJ, Inc. (A): Seeking Matrimony in Japan

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Akiko Saito

In March 2020, Shigeru Ishizaka, founder and CEO of IBJ, Inc., Japan's largest marriage matching service provider, faced a critical decision regarding the company’s planned ¥3.5 billion (US$32.8 million) acquisition of competitor ZWEI Co., Ltd. IBJ, founded in 2006,... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Model; Corporate Strategy; Value

January 2011
Case

The Risk-Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research

By: Suraj Srinivasan and David Lane

The case describes the Risk-Reward framework that Morgan Stanley analysts use as a systematic approach to communicate a broader range of fundamental insights about a company rather than the traditional single point estimates. The goal of the framework is to focus the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Risk Management; Business Processes; Research; Valuation

November 2007
Case

Antegren: A Beacon of Hope

By: Joshua D. Margolis, Thomas J. DeLong and Terence Heymann

The CEO of Biogen Idec faces a set of difficult decisions regarding a promising drug for Multiple Sclerosis that is headed for early approval by the FDA. The first in a series focuses on operational decisions triggered by the drive for early approval. Sparks discussion... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Leadership; Ethics; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Decision Choices and Conditions; Crisis Management; Health Testing and Trials; Biotechnology Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry

September 2017 (Revised June 2019)
Case

Dianrong: Marketplace Lending, Blockchain, and 'The New Finance' in China

By: Christopher J. Malloy, Lauren H. Cohen and Anthony K. Woo

This case examines the strategic positioning of Dianrong, one of the largest online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms in China, in its attempt to become a foundational player in the expansion of the FinTech sector in Asia. Dianrong had recently announced the... View Details

Keywords: Financing and Loans; Internet and the Web; Supply Chain; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Competition; Product Positioning; Strategy; Financial Services Industry; China

October 2023 (Revised May 2024)
Case

JSW Steel: Balancing Growth While Decarbonizing

By: Vikram S Gandhi and Radhika Kak

Sajjan Jindal, Chairman & Managing Director of JSW Steel, India's largest steel producer by market capitalization, was facing a dilemma. Steel demand in India was expected to grow exponentially over the next decade. However, given its traditional reliance on carbon,... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Environmental Sustainability; Investment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Growth and Development; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Pollutants; Pollution; Production; Steel Industry; India

June 2023
Teaching Note

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited: Global Leadership in Chipmaking

By: William C. Kirby and Noah B. Truwit

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 321-126. The general purpose of this case is to explore the evolving nature of business relations across the Taiwan strait, focusing on the prominence of Taiwan's high-tech industry. After the legendary founder of Taiwan Semiconductor... View Details

Keywords: Geopolitical Units; Government and Politics; Competition; Production; Disruption; Semiconductor Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Taiwan; Taiwan Strait; China

June 2008
Article

'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?

By: Reshmaan Hussam, David Porter and Vernon Smith

We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and “error” elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: “yes.”... View Details

Keywords: Experimental Economics; Asset Markets; Bubbles; Price Bubble; Financial Markets

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September 2009 (Revised June 2011)
Supplement

Citigroup's Exchange Offer (B)

By: Robin Greenwood and James Quinn

Citigroup faced considerable distress in early 2009. In late 2008, the bank had accepted $45 billion in preferred equity from the United States government via the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Yet, the stock had continued to slide in early 2009. In late... View Details

Keywords: Financial Instruments; Financial Services Industry

07 Apr 2020
News

How to Manage Coronavirus Layoffs with Compassion

2018
Working Paper

Corporate Sustainability: A Strategy?

By: George Serafeim

We explore the conditions under which firms maintain their competitive advantage through sustainability-based differentiation when faced with imitation pressures by industry peers. We document growing intraindustry convergence on sustainability actions over time for... View Details

Keywords: Sustainability; Corporate Performance; Industry Analysis; CSR; ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Environment; Social Responsibility; Strategy And Execution; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Strategy; Performance; Corporate Strategy

February 2021 (Revised March 2023)
Supplement

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (B)

By: Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin

By December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had swept across the globe, creating widespread disruption in all aspects of everyday life. Almost 90 million people had been infected and nearly two million had died from the disease. By this point in the pandemic—a year since... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Economy; Health Pandemics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Global Range; Crisis Management; Disruption

2017
Working Paper

Self-Employment Dynamics and the Returns to Entrepreneurship

By: Eleanor W. Dillon and Christopher T. Stanton

Small business owners and others in self-employment have the option to transition to paid work. If there is initial uncertainty about entrepreneurial earnings, this option increases the expected lifetime value of self-employment relative to pay in a single year. This... View Details

Keywords: Self-employed; Small Business; Business Earnings; Entrepreneurship; Ownership; Compensation and Benefits

Article

Managing the Unknowable: The Effectiveness of Early-stage Investor Gut Feel in Entrepreneurial Investment Decisions

By: Laura Huang and Jone L. Pearce

Using an inductive theory-development study, a field experiment, and a longitudinal field test, we examine early-stage entrepreneurial investment decision making under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Building on existing literature on decision making and risk in... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Making; Emotions; Performance Effectiveness

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Article

Strategic Management of Product Recovery

By: Michael W. Toffel

Manufacturers of an expanding range of durable products are facing regulatory and market pressures to manage the products they manufactured upon their end of life (EOL). In part, this attention is motivated by a growing number of countries—especially across Europe and... View Details

Keywords: Product; Environmental Sustainability; Cost Management; Government Legislation; Logistics; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy; Europe; Asia; United States

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January 2025 (Revised April 2025)
Case

Doing Business in Cairo: Navigating a Path to Economic Resilience

By: A. Zelleke and Ahmed Dahawy

Egypt has long been a pivotal force in the Middle East and North Africa. Located at a crossroads of global trade routes, the country was a strategic partner for numerous regional and global powers. However, a substantial currency devaluation in 2016 brought many... View Details

Keywords: Business; Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Globalized Economies and Regions; International Relations; Emerging Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Culture; Economy; Country; Currency; Investment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Egypt

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