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- All HBS Web (1,031)
- Faculty Publications (351)
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- 14 Mar 2023
- In Practice
What Does the Failure of Silicon Valley Bank Say About the State of Finance?
bank was different, and it is highlighted in its name and in the history of its public statement. "The bottom line: The art is not to predict whether a run might take place, but when." For example, it is very clear that there is no other... View Details
- 16 Nov 2010
- First Look
First Look: November 16, 2010
Publication:Journal of Public Economics (forthcoming) Abstract It is often difficult for donors to predict the value of charitable giving because they know little about the persons who receive their help. This concern is particularly... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 19 Apr 2010
- Research & Ideas
The History of Beauty
largest, most professionally managed global companies find it hard to predict the success of product launches, and can stumble badly. One estimate is that 90 percent of new fragrance launches fail. Getting the word out to consumers, and... View Details
- 09 Dec 2019
- Research & Ideas
Identify Great Customers from Their First Purchase
the customer would do in the future. As with other artificial intelligence tools, the drawback to this technology is that the model acts as a sort of black box, so researchers can’t determine the exact factors that trigger predictions.... View Details
- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
- 10 Jun 2008
- First Look
First Look: June 10, 2008
managers will use the discretion given by such estimates to convey private information on future cash flows, while agency theory predicts managers will use the discretion opportunistically. We test these alternative hypotheses using a... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 18 Dec 2012
- First Look
First Look: December 18
assumptions are present in the structure of technology and labor flows within Silicon Valley and its surrounding areas. Our model further identifies how the lengths over which agglomerative forces operate influence the shapes and sizes of... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
- 12 Apr 2016
- First Look
April 12, 2016
time is lower, such as during school breaks or time off from work, then such models predict that the number of ideas developed will be greater, but the average quality will be lower due to the lower expected... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 01 Aug 2022
- What Do You Think?
Does Religious Belief Affect Organizational Performance?
Katherine Lawrence put it: “The current JIT rose out of both hubris and myopia.” Citing the Ukranian War and its impact on logistics, she points out that “our transportation networks and systems are susceptible to variables we cannot View Details
Keywords: Re: James L. Heskett
- 30 May 2024
- Research & Ideas
Racial Bias Might Be Infecting Patient Portals. Can AI Help?
Patients and physicians increasingly turned to digital platforms, like patient portal messaging, when COVID-19 made contact risky, but a new study of how providers managed the messaging surge suggests an uncomfortable downside: What if the color of a patient’s skin... View Details
- 04 Feb 2014
- First Look
First Look: February 4
predictions; (ii) international capital flows net of official aid flows, which are mostly accounted as debt, are also positively correlated with productivity growth consistent with the predictions of the neoclassical model; and (iii)... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthlorne
- 14 Mar 2017
- First Look
First Look at New Research, March 14
considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of 2000–2002 and 2007–2009. This paper specifies and estimates a View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 23 Apr 2012
- Research & Ideas
How to Brand a Next-Generation Product
considered a hypothetical scenario in which a well-known firm is preparing to launch a new version of its color printer. The participants, who were split into two groups, received a list of seven successive model names. For the first... View Details
Keywords: by Carmen Nobel
- 16 Jun 2009
- First Look
First Look: June 16
economic theory of GAAP under the assumption that GAAP's objective is to facilitate efficient capital allocation within an economy. The theory predicts that GAAP, as shaped by the economic forces of demand for and supply of financial... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 15 Jul 2008
- First Look
First Look: July 15, 2008
review the empirical work based on the predictions of these models of collective action. While the available evidence is generally consistent with these theories, there is a dearth of quality evidence.... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 16 Jul 2007
- Research & Ideas
Understanding the ‘Want’ vs. ’Should’ Decision
this to online grocery shopping? A: We predicted that online grocery shoppers would order healthier groceries when ordering for delivery in the distant future (i.e., 5 days from now) than when ordering for delivery in the more immediate... View Details
- September 2023 (Revised October 2024)
- Case
Forecasting Climate Risks: Aviva’s Climate Calculus
By: Mark Egan and Peter Tufano
In late 2021, Ben Carr, Director of Analytics and Capital Modeling at Aviva Plc (Aviva)—a leading insurer with core operations in the UK, Ireland and Canada,—was preparing for an upcoming presentation before the company's board which included its CEO, Amanda Blanc,... View Details
Keywords: Climate Risk; Climate Finance; Forecasting; Insurance; Risk Measurement; Climate Change; Risk Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance Industry; United States
Egan, Mark, and Peter Tufano. "Forecasting Climate Risks: Aviva’s Climate Calculus." Harvard Business School Case 224-025, September 2023. (Revised October 2024.)
- October 2024
- Article
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 5 (October 2024): 872–890.
- 16 Jul 2020
- Research & Ideas
Restaurant Revolution: How the Industry Is Fighting to Stay Alive
business model for small independents is often elusive. So when a crisis of the magnitude of the COVID-19 global pandemic forces restaurants to close, and their revenue drops to zero overnight, things get particularly dire. Unlike the... View Details
- 13 Dec 2011
- First Look
First Look: Dec. 13
donate. In some equilibria of the model, poor people give little because they expect donations to come mainly from richer individuals. In others, donations by poor individuals constitute a large fraction of donations, and this raises the incentive for poor people to... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne