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- Faculty Publications (351)
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- All HBS Web (996)
- Faculty Publications (351)
- 01 Dec 2015
- First Look
December 1, 2015
2015 Modern China Studies Free at Last, Now What: The Soviet and Chinese Attempts to Offer a Roadmap for the Post-Colonial World By: Friedman, Jeremy Abstract—This article seeks to understand the motivations behind the People's Republic of China's attempt to present an... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
- Background Note
Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product
By: Elie Ofek
Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods; Competition
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product." Harvard Business School Background Note 505-062, February 2005. (Revised November 2016.)
- 17 Jan 2024
- HBS Case
Psychological Pricing Tactics to Fight the Inflation Blues
value,” Ofek says. You Might Also Like: With Subscription Fatigue Setting In, Companies Need to Think Hard About Fees With Predictive Analytics, Companies Can Tap the Ultimate Opportunity: Customers’ Routines How SHEIN and Temu Conquered... View Details
- November 1999 (Revised July 2003)
- Case
Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc.
By: Paul M. Healy and Jacob Cohen
Pre-Paid Legal Services' business model reveals two key issues--managing the sales force and sales growth and managing claims. Students analyze the economics of the business and consider how to measure firm performance, how to evaluate and reward the sales force, and... View Details
Keywords: Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Salesforce Management; Marketing Strategy; Accrual Accounting; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance; Business Growth and Maturation; Insurance Industry
Healy, Paul M., and Jacob Cohen. "Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 100-037, November 1999. (Revised July 2003.)
- 10 Sep 2007
- Research & Ideas
High Note: Managing the Medici String Quartet
No one was fooled by that. At a certain point he was at a loss. When he came to class as a guest lecturer, he described different models of leadership and the problems with each one. What worked 10 years in didn't work 20 years in. He... View Details
- 23 Jun 2023
- HBS Case
This Company Lets Employees Take Charge—Even with Life and Death Decisions
patients as they see fit. A new Harvard Business School case study explores Buurtzorg’s decentralized model in depth, with lessons for institutions struggling with morale and productivity. Buurtzorg’s approach has yielded patient... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment
By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental
R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more
knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details
Frankel, Alexander P., Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-074, May 2023. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31290, May 2023.)
- Web
Strategy - Faculty & Research
characteristics. It is more prevalent in service, non-tradable, and labor-intensive industries, and is especially pronounced among diversified firms. Among potential drivers, labor similarity consistently predicts intra-firm colocation,... View Details
- September 2011
- Article
Political Instability: Effects on Financial Development, Roots in the Severity of Economic Inequality
By: Mark J. Roe and Jordan I. Siegel
We here bring forward strong evidence that political instability impedes financial development, with its variation a primary determinant of differences in financial development around the world. As such, it needs to be added to the short list of major determinants of... View Details
Keywords: Financial Development; Political Instability; Government and Politics; Finance; Growth and Development; Economics; Equality and Inequality
Roe, Mark J., and Jordan I. Siegel. "Political Instability: Effects on Financial Development, Roots in the Severity of Economic Inequality." Journal of Comparative Economics 39, no. 3 (September 2011): 279–309. (We here bring forward strong evidence that political instability impedes financial development, with its variation a primary determinant of differences in financial development around the world. As such, it needs to be added to the short list of major determinants of financial development. First, structural conditions first postulated by
Engerman and Sokoloff (2002) as generating long-term inequality are shown here empirically to be exogenous determinants of political instability. Second, that exogenously-determined political instability in turn holds back financial development, even when we control for factors prominent in the last decade's cross-country studies of
financial development. The findings indicate that inequality-perpetuating conditions that result in political instability are fundamental roadblocks for international organizations like the World Bank that seek to promote financial development. The evidence here includes country fixed effect regressions and an instrumental model inspired by Engerman and Sokoloff's (2002) work, which to our knowledge has not yet been used in finance and which is consistent with current tests as valid instruments. Four conventional measures of national political instability — Alesina and Perotti's (1996) well-known index of instability, a subsequent index derived from Banks' (2005) work,
and two indices of managerial perceptions of nation-by-nation political instability — persistently predict a wide range of national financial development outcomes for recent decades. Political instability's significance is time consistent in cross-sectional regressions back to the 1960's, the period when the key data becomes available, robust
in both country fixed-effects and instrumental variable regressions, and consistent across multiple measures of instability and of financial development. Overall, the results indicate the existence of an important channel running from structural inequality to political instability, principally in nondemocratic settings, and then to financial
backwardness. The robust significance of that channel extends existing work demonstrating the importance of political economy explanations for financial development and financial backwardness. It should help to better understand which policies will work for financial development, because political instability has causes, cures, and effects quite distinct from those of many of the key institutions most studied in the past decade as explaining financial backwardness.)
- Article
Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data
By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend
This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details
Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction
Hyslop, Dean, and Wilbur Townsend. "Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 38, no. 2 (2020).
- Web
Podcast - Business & Environment
climate risks. Sarah shares insights from her work building predictive wildfire risk models using satellite imagery, AI, and systems design to enable more targeted insurance underwriting and disaster... View Details
- 23 Oct 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018
resource deployment. Methodology: The predictive model developed is based on a regression tree combined with copula-based simulations. We generalize the tree method to predict... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- Web
Technology & Operations Management - Faculty & Research
model of researchers’ labor supply shows that their willingness to pay for their two key inputs, funding and time, reveals their underlying productivity beliefs. We estimate the model’s parameters using data from a nationally... View Details
- 20 May 2008
- First Look
First Look: May 20, 2008
Life-Cycle Funds Authors:Francisco J. Gomes, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, and Luis M. Viceira Abstract We investigate optimal consumption, asset accumulation and portfolio decisions in a realistically calibrated life-cycle model with flexible... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- Web
Negotiation, Organizations & Markets - Faculty & Research
different experiences compete for retrieval, and retrieved experiences are used to simulate the event based on how similar they are to it. The model predicts that different experiences interfere with each... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence
By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then... View Details
Graeber, Thomas, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg, and Charles Sprenger. "'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-046, January 2024.
- Web
Finance - Faculty & Research
as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor View Details
- Web
Human Behavior & Decision-Making - Faculty & Research
reward processing in humans. These techniques have revealed that evolutionarily conserved circuits related to affect generate distinguishable appetitive and consummatory signals, and that these signals can be used to predict choice and... View Details
- 17 Jul 2007
- First Look
First Look: July 17, 2007
shared platform, such as Visa, DVD, or Linux, multiple firms collaborate in developing the platform's technology then compete in offering users different but compatible versions of the platform. This article examines factors that favor proprietary versus shared View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 08 Aug 2006
- First Look
First Look: August 8, 2006
predictions of several models of learning and related models. We find that equilibrium becomes a better predictor of observed play as the players become more experienced, but that simple View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne