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- All HBS Web (617)
- Faculty Publications (568)
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- All HBS Web (617)
- Faculty Publications (568)
- April 12, 2022
- Article
Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships
Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
- 2019
- Working Paper
Intelligent Artificiality: Algorithmic Microfoundations for Strategic Problem Solving
By: Mihnea Moldoveanu
This paper introduces algorithmic micro-foundations for formulating and solving strategic problems. It shows how the languages and disciplines of theoretical computer science, “artificial intelligence,” and computational complexity theory can be used to devise a set of... View Details
Keywords: Problems and Challenges; Analysis; Strategy; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Mathematical Methods
Moldoveanu, Mihnea. "Intelligent Artificiality: Algorithmic Microfoundations for Strategic Problem Solving." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-072, January 2019. (Revised February 2019.)
- October 2005 (Revised February 2010)
- Background Note
Calculating Free Cash Flows
By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein
Outlines the mechanics of calculating free cash flows from historical and proforma financial statements. Focuses on the mechanical process of transforming numbers from financial forecasts into cash flows. View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and David S. Scharfstein. "Calculating Free Cash Flows." Harvard Business School Background Note 206-028, October 2005. (Revised February 2010.)
- 2012
- Working Paper
Rainmakers: Why Bad Weather Means Good Productivity
By: Jooa Julia Lee, Francesca Gino and Bradley R. Staats
People believe that weather conditions influence their everyday work life, but to date, little is known about how weather affects individual productivity. Most people believe that bad weather conditions reduce productivity. In this research, we predict and find just... View Details
Keywords: Productivity; Opportunity Cost; Distractions; Weather; Performance Productivity; Social Psychology; Mathematical Methods
Lee, Jooa Julia, Francesca Gino, and Bradley R. Staats. "Rainmakers: Why Bad Weather Means Good Productivity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-005, July 2012.
- 2013
- Working Paper
Competing Ad Auctions
By: Itai Ashlagi, Benjamin Edelman and Hoan Soo Lee
We present a two-stage model of competing ad auctions. Search engines attract users via Cournot-style competition. Meanwhile, each advertiser must pay a participation cost to use each ad platform, and advertiser entry strategies are derived using symmetric Bayes-Nash... View Details
Keywords: Online Advertising; Auctions; Market Participation; Market Platforms; Mathematical Methods; Competition
Ashlagi, Itai, Benjamin Edelman, and Hoan Soo Lee. "Competing Ad Auctions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-055, January 2010. (Revised May 2010, February 2011, September 2013.)
- 2009
- Working Paper
Farsighted Stability for Roommate Markets
By: Bettina-Elisabeth Klaus, Flip Klijn and Markus Walzl
Using a bi-choice graph technique (Klaus and Klijn, 2009), we show that a matching for a roommate market indirectly dominates another matching if and only if no blocking pair of the former is matched in the latter (Proposition 1). Using this characterization of... View Details
Klaus, Bettina-Elisabeth, Flip Klijn, and Markus Walzl. "Farsighted Stability for Roommate Markets." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-135, May 2009.
- October 2004 (Revised May 2006)
- Case
Wells REIT II
By: Arthur I Segel and Dwight Angelini
Dr. Richard Planter, a dentist, asks his financial adviser, Michael Saris, to review an offering memorandum for a new, private real estate investment trust. After reviewing the documents, Saris needs to develop an analytical framework and provide concrete advice... View Details
Keywords: Finance; Investment; Framework; Private Ownership; Mathematical Methods; Real Estate Industry
Segel, Arthur I., and Dwight Angelini. "Wells REIT II." Harvard Business School Case 205-019, October 2004. (Revised May 2006.)
- Article
Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility
By: Diego Comin and Sunil Mulani
This paper documents the diverging trends in volatility of the growth rate of sales at the aggregate and firm level. We establish that the upward trend in micro volatility is not simply driven by a compositional bias in the sample studied. We argue that this new fact... View Details
Comin, Diego, and Sunil Mulani. "Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility." Review of Economics and Statistics 88, no. 2 (May 2006).
- December 2001 (Revised April 2003)
- Case
Delays at Logan Airport
By: V.G. Narayanan and George Batta
Logan Airport is facing mounting delays for flights landings and takeoffs, especially in inclement weather. An additional runway and peak-period pricing are two alternatives being considered. View Details
Keywords: Price; Problems and Challenges; Decision Making; Mathematical Methods; Air Transportation Industry; Service Industry; Boston
Narayanan, V.G., and George Batta. "Delays at Logan Airport." Harvard Business School Case 102-011, December 2001. (Revised April 2003.)
- June 2008
- Article
Minimally Acceptable Altruism and the Ultimatum Game
By: Julio J. Rotemberg
I suppose that people react with anger when others show themselves not to be minimally altruistic. With heterogeneous agents, this can account for the experimental results of ultimatum and dictator games. Moreover, it can account for the surprisingly large fraction of... View Details
Rotemberg, Julio J. "Minimally Acceptable Altruism and the Ultimatum Game." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 66, nos. 3-4 (June 2008).
- 01 Mar 2009
- News
The Case for Studying Financial History
on financial history or indeed any kind of history. Finance is often taught as a branch of mathematics in a rather technical way without adequate reference to past experience. I think HBS is actually in the best position here because the... View Details
- 1997
- Chapter
Applications of Option-Pricing Theory: Twenty-Five Years Later
By: Robert C. Merton
Merton, Robert C. "Applications of Option-Pricing Theory: Twenty-Five Years Later." In Les Prix Nobel 1997, edited by Tore Frängsmyr. Stockholm: Nobel Foundation, 1997. (Reprinted in American Economic Review, June 1998.)
- spring 1987
- Article
Second-Sourcing and the Experience Curve: Price Competition in Defense Procurement
By: James J. Anton and Dennis A. Yao
We examine a dynamic model of price competition in defense procurement that incorporates the experience curve, asymmetric cost information, and the availability of a higher cost alternative system. We model acquisition as a two-stage process in which initial production... View Details
Anton, James J., and Dennis A. Yao. "Second-Sourcing and the Experience Curve: Price Competition in Defense Procurement." RAND Journal of Economics 18, no. 1 (spring 1987): 57–76. (Harvard users click here for full text.)
- 23 Jan 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Transaction Costs and the Duration of Contracts
Keywords: by Alexander MacKay
- March 2011 (Revised November 2011)
- Teaching Note
Harmonic Hearing Co. (Brief Case)
By: Howard H. Stevenson and Craig Stephenson
Teaching Note for 4271. View Details
- January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
- Case
Forecasting the Great Depression
What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details
Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis
Friedman, Walter A. "Forecasting the Great Depression." Harvard Business School Case 708-046, January 2008. (Revised July 2009.)
- April 2006
- Background Note
Informing Service Management with Customer Data
By: Frances X. Frei and Dennis Campbell
Taught as the third module in a Harvard Business School course on Managing Service Operations. Explores the role of data analysis in ongoing service management. Describes how to realize the maximum amount of value from analyses and use this information in... View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Design; Analytics and Data Science; Service Operations; Mathematical Methods; Value
Frei, Frances X., and Dennis Campbell. "Informing Service Management with Customer Data." Harvard Business School Background Note 606-097, April 2006.
- 2021
- Article
Aggregate Advertising Expenditure in the U.S. Economy: Measurement and Growth Issues in the Digital Era
By: Alvin J. Silk and Ernst R. Berndt
The two components of the advertising industry—the creative sector that develops and produces messages, and the communications sector that transmits messages via various media—have each been greatly affected by advances in creative design and communications... View Details
Keywords: Industry Evolution; Advertising; Spending; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods; Media; Advertising Industry; United States
Silk, Alvin J., and Ernst R. Berndt. "Aggregate Advertising Expenditure in the U.S. Economy: Measurement and Growth Issues in the Digital Era." Foundations and Trends® in Marketing 15, no. 1 (2021): 1–85.
- Article
On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills
By: Robert C. Merton and Roy D. Henriksson
Merton, Robert C., and Roy D. Henriksson. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills." Journal of Business 54, no. 4 (October 1981): 513–533.