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  • All HBS Web  (7,635)
    • People  (21)
    • News  (1,564)
    • Research  (4,685)
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  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

By: Eva Ascarza
The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can... View Details
Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry
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Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-091, February 2019. (Revised May 2020. Accepted at the Journal of Marketing Research.)
  • October 2021
  • Article

Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

By: Nicolas Padilla and Eva Ascarza
The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can... View Details
Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Programs; Consumer Behavior; Analysis
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Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 58, no. 5 (October 2021): 981–1006.
  • 2025
  • Working Paper

Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations

By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
Keywords: Financial Markets; Valuation; Stocks; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance
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McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, June 2025. (WFA Brattle Group Ph.D. Award for Outstanding Research.)
  • 18 Jul 2023
  • Interview

Jeffrey Rayport on Product Market Fit, Profit Market Fit and Whiplash, and More

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport and Doug Levin
This episode of "Lessons from Startup Life" podcast features Jeffrey Rayport, Senior Lecturer of Business Administration at the Harvard Business School. Jeffrey specializes in teaching and researching growth-stage technology ventures and their scalability. Prior to... View Details
Keywords: Scaling And Growth; Start-up; Diversity; Equity; Inclusion; Technology; Business Startups; Product Marketing; Business Growth and Maturation
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"Jeffrey Rayport on Product Market Fit, Profit Market Fit and Whiplash, and More." Lessons from a Startup Life (podcast), July 18, 2023.
  • August 2003
  • Article

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets
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Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms." Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 3 (August 2003): 969–1006.
  • January 2009
  • Article

Multinationals as Arbitrageurs? The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment

By: Malcolm Baker, C. Fritz Foley and Jeffrey Wurgler
Empirical evidence of imperfect integration across world capital markets suggests a role for cross-border arbitrage by multinationals. Consistent with multinational arbitrage as a determinant of foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns, we find that FDI flows increase... View Details
Keywords: Multinational Firms and Management; Financial Markets; Foreign Direct Investment; Valuation; Capital Markets; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Stocks; Integration
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Baker, Malcolm, C. Fritz Foley, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Multinationals as Arbitrageurs? The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment." Review of Financial Studies 22, no. 1 (January 2009): 337–369.
  • October 2010
  • Journal Article

The Flattening Firm and Product Market Competition: The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Corporate Hierarchies

By: Maria Guadalupe and Julie Wulf
This paper establishes a causal effect of product market competition on various characteristics of organizational design. Using a unique panel-dataset on firm hierarchies of large U.S. firms (1986-1999) and a quasi-natural experiment (trade liberalization), we find... View Details
Keywords: Business Ventures; Product; Markets; Competition; Organizational Design; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Rank and Position; Organizational Structure; Decision Choices and Conditions; Change; Trade; United States
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Guadalupe, Maria, and Julie Wulf. "The Flattening Firm and Product Market Competition: The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Corporate Hierarchies." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2, no. 4 (October 2010).
  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Opportunistic Returns and Dynamic Pricing: Empirical Evidence from Online Retailing in Emerging Markets

By: Chaithanya Bandi, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe and Zhiji Xu
We investigate how dynamic pricing can lead to higher operational costs through more product returns in the online retail industry. Dynamic pricing has been widely applied by many online retailers. Research has shown that, in response to dynamic pricing, some customers... View Details
Keywords: Price; Policy; Consumer Behavior; Cost Management; Emerging Markets; Retail Industry
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Bandi, Chaithanya, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe, and Zhiji Xu. "Opportunistic Returns and Dynamic Pricing: Empirical Evidence from Online Retailing in Emerging Markets." Working Paper, September 2018.
  • December 2014
  • Article

Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments

By: Jennifer Brown and Dylan B. Minor
We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect—the stronger the expected future... View Details
Keywords: Elimination Tournament; Dynamic Contest; Contest Design; Effort Choice; Betting Markets; Competitive Advantage; Game Theory
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Brown, Jennifer, and Dylan B. Minor. "Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments." Management Science 60, no. 12 (December 2014): 3087–3102.
  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Opportunistic Returns and Dynamic Pricing: Empirical Evidence from Online Retailing in Emerging Markets

By: Chaithanya Bandi, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe and Zhiji Xu
We investigate how dynamic pricing can lead to more product returns in the online retail industry. Using detailed sales data of more than two million transactions from the Indian online retail market, where price promotions are very common, we document two types of... View Details
Keywords: Cash On Delivery; Dynamic Pricing; Online Retail; Payment Methods; Strategic Customer Behavior; Opportunistic Returns; Price; Policy; Consumer Behavior; Emerging Markets; Retail Industry
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Bandi, Chaithanya, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe, and Zhiji Xu. "Opportunistic Returns and Dynamic Pricing: Empirical Evidence from Online Retailing in Emerging Markets." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-030, September 2018.
  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Trade and the Single Car Market: The EC-Japan Elements of Consensus, 1985–1999

By: Grace Ballor
In 1991, in the midst of the program to create a liberal Single European Market and in the context of a new Joint Declaration for cooperation with Japan, the European Commission brokered a private deal to restrict Japanese imports into the European Community for nearly... View Details
Keywords: Market; Protectionism; Liberalization; Trade; Markets; International Relations; Auto Industry; Europe; European Union; Japan
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Ballor, Grace. "Trade and the Single Car Market: The EC-Japan Elements of Consensus, 1985–1999." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-145, June 2021.
  • November 2016 (Revised May 2017)
  • Case

The Black List

By: Henry McGee and Sarah McAra
Franklin Leonard founded The Black List in 2005 as an innovative approach to identifying potential hit movie scripts via crowdsourcing. As the annual Black List proved to hold the scripts of some of Hollywood’s most successful films, from “Slumdog Millionaire” to... View Details
Keywords: Screenwriting; Independent Production; Hollywood; Film Development; Film Distribution; Film Financing; Manging Uncertainty; Barriers To Entry; Globalization; Digitalization; Film Entertainment; Entrepreneurship; Marketing; Media; Strategy; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; United States
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McGee, Henry, and Sarah McAra. "The Black List." Harvard Business School Case 317-027, November 2016. (Revised May 2017.)
  • August 2018
  • Teaching Note

Magpie: Developing and Using Buyer Personas

By: Frank V. Cespedes
Teaching Note for HBS No. 818-013. Magpie is a startup with a platform that allows publishers to natively tag the products discussed in their content and thus allows consumers to purchase those products without needing to leave that publisher’s web page. A key aspect... View Details
Keywords: Buying Process; Marketing; Sales; Distribution Channels; Segmentation; Entrepreneurship; Social Media; Consumer Products Industry; Fashion Industry; United States
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Cespedes, Frank V. "Magpie: Developing and Using Buyer Personas." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 819-027, August 2018.
  • 2009
  • Other Unpublished Work

The Flattening Firm and Product Market Competition: The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Corporate Hierarchies

By: Maria Guadalupe and Julie Wulf
This paper establishes a causal effect of product market competition on various characteristics of organizational design. Using a unique panel-dataset on firm hierarchies of large U.S. firms (1986-1999) and a quasi-natural experiment (trade liberalization), we find... View Details
Keywords: Trade; Managerial Roles; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Business Strategy; Competitive Strategy
Citation
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Guadalupe, Maria, and Julie Wulf. "The Flattening Firm and Product Market Competition: The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Corporate Hierarchies." December 2009.
  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Oral History and Writing the Business History of Emerging Markets

By: Geoffrey Jones and Rachael Comunale
This working paper highlights the benefits that rigorous use of oral history can offer to research on the contemporary business history of emerging markets. Oral history can help fill some of the major information voids arising from the absence of a strong tradition of... View Details
Keywords: Oral History; Business History; Research; Emerging Markets
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Jones, Geoffrey, and Rachael Comunale. "Oral History and Writing the Business History of Emerging Markets." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-056, November 2018.
  • April 19, 2018
  • Article

4 Ways to Improve Your Content Marketing

By: Frank V. Cespedes and Russ Heddleston
In the past decade, content marketing has become a widely established practice. Companies have hired writers and chief content officers to run departments as well as create blogs and other materials—in the process, some have assured sales people that content marketing... View Details
Keywords: Marketing; Marketing Communications; Sales; Performance Improvement
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Cespedes, Frank V., and Russ Heddleston. "4 Ways to Improve Your Content Marketing." Harvard Business Review (website) (April 19, 2018).
  • June 2002 (Revised July 2002)
  • Case

NTT DoCoMo: Marketing i-mode

By: Youngme E. Moon
i-mode is a wireless Internet service offered in Japan by NTT DoCoMo. In just three years, the service has won over 30 million subscribers and achieved a 60% share of Japan's mobile Internet market, making it the most successful mobile data service in the world. It is... View Details
Keywords: Price; Marketing; Marketing Channels; Market Entry and Exit; Market Participation; Success; Competition; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Telecommunications Industry; Japan
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Moon, Youngme E. "NTT DoCoMo: Marketing i-mode." Harvard Business School Case 502-031, June 2002. (Revised July 2002.)
  • 15 May 2013
  • Research & Ideas

From McRibs to Maseratis: The Power of Scarcity Marketing

KFC pulled the sandwich off the menu across most of Canada. This move may seem strange in an industry where a pivotal goal—in the words of... View Details
Keywords: Re: Michael I. Norton
  • 2011
  • Working Paper

The Flexible Substitution Logit: Uncovering Category Expansion and Share Impacts of Marketing Instruments

By: Qiang Liu, Thomas J. Steenburgh and Sachin Gupta
Different instruments are relevant for different marketing objectives (category demand expansion or market share stealing). To help brand managers make informed marketing mix decisions, it is essential that marketing mix models appropriately measure the different... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Brands and Branding; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods
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Liu, Qiang, Thomas J. Steenburgh, and Sachin Gupta. "The Flexible Substitution Logit: Uncovering Category Expansion and Share Impacts of Marketing Instruments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-012, September 2011.
  • Article

A Case for Contextual Intelligence

By: Tarun Khanna
In this perspective, I make a case for entrepreneurs and academics alike to focus on what I have referred to elsewhere as Contextual Intelligence, the ability to understand the limits of our knowledge, and to adapt that knowledge to a context different from the one in... View Details
Keywords: Contextual Intelligence; Institutional Voids; Entrepreneurship In Emerging Markets; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Situation or Environment; Developing Countries and Economies; Entrepreneurship
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Khanna, Tarun. "A Case for Contextual Intelligence." Special Issue on Leveraging India: Strategies for Global Competitiveness. Management International Review 55, no. 2 (April 2015): 181–190.
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